Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 61%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Signal

18 of 30 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,856

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Up18 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,293

Combined PnL+$312.25

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 43.8¢	$966.05	—	-$966.05	54% 15321-12840 (28161)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 79.8¢	$574.44	$583.48	+$9.04	49% 5051-5218 (10269)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 52.2¢	$659.92	—	-$659.92	56% 13584-10832 (24416)
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 45.2¢	$392.87	—	-$392.87	56% 12303-9499 (21802)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 45.3¢	$180.5	$268.65	+$88.16	59% 6579-4550 (11129)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.3¢	$121.63	$268.65	+$147.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.8¢	$58.87	—	-$58.87
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 64.2¢	$160.8	$189.4	+$31.45	55% 7241-5930 (13171)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 74¢	$140.42	$189.81	+$49.39	55% 17472-14100 (31572)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 50.4¢	$101.76	$196.85	+$95.08	57% 70079-53264 (123343)
NIULAI4	Upavg 90¢	$157.5	$175	+$17.5	77% 9313-2755 (12068)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 81.1¢	$210.68	$142.64	-$68.04	60% 12031-7917 (19948)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 69.7¢	$103.84	$149	+$45.16	57% 7662-5869 (13531)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Downavg 48.4¢	$165.03	—	-$165.03	57% 11844-8820 (20664)
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 52.9¢	$74.34	$130.98	+$56.64	66% 111736-58065 (169801)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 49.2¢	$66.75	$105.21	+$38.46	55% 23712-19172 (42884)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 57.1¢	$100.33	$91.66	-$8.68	54% 10578-9036 (19614)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 90¢	$113.16	$79.73	-$33.43	65% 124499-66595 (191094)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 54.7¢	$65.2	$65.04	+$29.25	64% 57804-32541 (90345)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 68.6¢	$48.13	$70.15	+$22.01	66% 124869-64274 (189143)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 72.8¢	$50.43	$59.99	+$9.56	65% 22059-12128 (34187)
Bossgirl<$100	Upavg 74.3¢	$37.54	$50.51	+$12.97	54% 4607-3923 (8530)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 47.8¢	$27.67	—	-$27.67	58% 37494-26736 (64230)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 24.3¢	$13.31	—	-$13.31	49% 77653-81002 (158655)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 27¢	$22.73	—	-$22.73	58% 60218-43959 (104177)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 57¢	$12.54	—	-$12.54	34% 18599-35593 (54192)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 43¢	$2.58	$6	+$3.42	52% 89634-84083 (173717)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$966.05

Value

—

PnL

-$966.05

Record

54%

15321-12840 (28161)

ply-pm0

Invested

$574.44

Value

$583.48

PnL

+$9.04

Record

49%

5051-5218 (10269)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$659.92

Value

—

PnL

-$659.92

Record

56%

13584-10832 (24416)

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$392.87

Value

—

PnL

-$392.87

Record

56%

12303-9499 (21802)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$180.5

Value

$268.65

PnL

+$88.16

Record

59%

6579-4550 (11129)

Both legs:

Up$121.6345.3¢+$147.03

Down$58.8756.8¢-$58.87

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$160.8

Value

$189.4

PnL

+$31.45

Record

55%

7241-5930 (13171)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$140.42

Value

$189.81

PnL

+$49.39

Record

55%

17472-14100 (31572)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$101.76

Value

$196.85

PnL

+$95.08

Record

57%

70079-53264 (123343)

NIULAI4

Invested

$157.5

Value

$175

PnL

+$17.5

Record

77%

9313-2755 (12068)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$210.68

Value

$142.64

PnL

-$68.04

Record

60%

12031-7917 (19948)

wzbbb

Invested

$103.84

Value

$149

PnL

+$45.16

Record

57%

7662-5869 (13531)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Down

Invested

$165.03

Value

—

PnL

-$165.03

Record

57%

11844-8820 (20664)

antsaslyku

Invested

$74.34

Value

$130.98

PnL

+$56.64

Record

66%

111736-58065 (169801)

sir-upalot

Invested

$66.75

Value

$105.21

PnL

+$38.46

Record

55%

23712-19172 (42884)

thesidehustle

Invested

$100.33

Value

$91.66

PnL

-$8.68

Record

54%

10578-9036 (19614)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$113.16

Value

$79.73

PnL

-$33.43

Record

65%

124499-66595 (191094)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$65.2

Value

$65.04

PnL

+$29.25

Record

64%

57804-32541 (90345)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$48.13

Value

$70.15

PnL

+$22.01

Record

66%

124869-64274 (189143)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$50.43

Value

$59.99

PnL

+$9.56

Record

65%

22059-12128 (34187)

Bossgirl<$100

Invested

$37.54

Value

$50.51

PnL

+$12.97

Record

54%

4607-3923 (8530)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.67

Value

—

PnL

-$27.67

Record

58%

37494-26736 (64230)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.31

Value

—

PnL

-$13.31

Record

49%

77653-81002 (158655)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.73

Value

—

PnL

-$22.73

Record

58%

60218-43959 (104177)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.54

Value

—

PnL

-$12.54

Record

34%

18599-35593 (54192)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$2.58

Value

PnL

+$3.42

Record

52%

89634-84083 (173717)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 30 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf593183a...63ef5d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793246700

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Down — $0

-$966.05

ply-pm0

Up — $583.48

GoodFallen

Down — $0

FairValueMachine

Down — $0

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $189.4

+$31.45

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $189.81

+$49.39

uninformedfloww

Up — $196.85

+$95.08

NIULAI4

Up — $175

+$17.5

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $142.64

-$68.04

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