Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 74%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$38.67

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 31 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,820

Combined PnL+$141.95

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,152

Combined PnL-$180.62

Down — 74%Up — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 72.5¢	$487.09	$526.29	+$39.2	54% 15321-12840 (28161)
machinelearned	Downavg 82.4¢	$462.43	$480	+$17.57	55% 8467-6906 (15373)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 87¢	$394.62	$390.24	-$4.39	64% 57804-32541 (90345)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 84.3¢	$208.41	$195.88	-$12.54	54% 10578-9036 (19614)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 76.3¢	$137.99	$177.8	+$39.81	57% 11844-8820 (20664)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 78.6¢	$135.28	$172.11	+$36.83	57% 70079-53264 (123343)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 78.8¢	$131.6	$132.51	+$0.92	49% 5051-5218 (10269)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 74.7¢	$178.85	$128.33	-$50.52	56% 13584-10832 (24416)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 79.7¢	$133.14	$132	-$1.14	55% 7241-5930 (13171)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 58.8¢	$123.46	$150.67	+$27.21	59% 6579-4550 (11129)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.8¢	$88.64	$150.67	+$62.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 55¢	$34.82	—	-$34.82
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 76.7¢	$79.61	$99.08	+$19.47	60% 12031-7917 (19948)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 88¢	$72.97	$82.92	+$9.95	57% 10208-7647 (17855)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 98¢	$73.5	$75	+$1.5	93% 22818-1742 (24560)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 85¢	$42.5	$50	+$7.5	55% 23712-19172 (42884)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 76.5¢	$28.81	$34.84	+$6.03	55% 44309-36802 (81111)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 28.1¢	$102.6	—	-$102.6	56% 12303-9499 (21802)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 86.5¢	$43.49	$31.06	+$6.57	65% 22059-12128 (34187)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 32.5¢	$40.3	—	-$40.3	55% 17472-14100 (31572)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 83.5¢	$18.84	$22.56	+$3.72	61% 94187-59243 (153430)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 98¢	$16.14	$14.99	-$1.15	52% 89634-84083 (173717)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 73.3¢	$18.18	$24.79	+$6.61	66% 124869-64274 (189143)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 54¢	$11.88	$22	+$10.12	34% 18599-35593 (54192)
49 0x49ba...d2f6<$100	Downavg 69¢	$6.9	$10	+$3.1	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 75¢	$5.26	$5.28	+$0.02	65% 124499-66595 (191094)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 87¢	$4.35	$5	+$0.65	58% 60218-43959 (104177)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$487.09

Value

$526.29

PnL

+$39.2

Record

54%

15321-12840 (28161)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$462.43

Value

$480

PnL

+$17.57

Record

55%

8467-6906 (15373)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$394.62

Value

$390.24

PnL

-$4.39

Record

64%

57804-32541 (90345)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$208.41

Value

$195.88

PnL

-$12.54

Record

54%

10578-9036 (19614)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$137.99

Value

$177.8

PnL

+$39.81

Record

57%

11844-8820 (20664)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$135.28

Value

$172.11

PnL

+$36.83

Record

57%

70079-53264 (123343)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$131.6

Value

$132.51

PnL

+$0.92

Record

49%

5051-5218 (10269)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$178.85

Value

$128.33

PnL

-$50.52

Record

56%

13584-10832 (24416)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$133.14

Value

$132

PnL

-$1.14

Record

55%

7241-5930 (13171)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$123.46

Value

$150.67

PnL

+$27.21

Record

59%

6579-4550 (11129)

Both legs:

Down$88.6458.8¢+$62.03

Up$34.8255¢-$34.82

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$79.61

Value

$99.08

PnL

+$19.47

Record

60%

12031-7917 (19948)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$72.97

Value

$82.92

PnL

+$9.95

Record

57%

10208-7647 (17855)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$73.5

Value

$75

PnL

+$1.5

Record

93%

22818-1742 (24560)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$42.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$7.5

Record

55%

23712-19172 (42884)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$28.81

Value

$34.84

PnL

+$6.03

Record

55%

44309-36802 (81111)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$102.6

Value

—

PnL

-$102.6

Record

56%

12303-9499 (21802)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$43.49

Value

$31.06

PnL

+$6.57

Record

65%

22059-12128 (34187)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$40.3

Value

—

PnL

-$40.3

Record

55%

17472-14100 (31572)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$18.84

Value

$22.56

PnL

+$3.72

Record

61%

94187-59243 (153430)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$16.14

Value

$14.99

PnL

-$1.15

Record

52%

89634-84083 (173717)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$18.18

Value

$24.79

PnL

+$6.61

Record

66%

124869-64274 (189143)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$11.88

Value

$22

PnL

+$10.12

Record

34%

18599-35593 (54192)

0x49ba...d2f6<$100

Down

Invested

$6.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.1

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$5.26

Value

$5.28

PnL

+$0.02

Record

65%

124499-66595 (191094)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$4.35

Value

PnL

+$0.65

Record

58%

60218-43959 (104177)

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 31 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x23d0def0...360942

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793246400

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $526.29

+$39.2

machinelearned

Down — $480

+$17.57

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $390.24

-$4.39

thesidehustle

Down — $195.88

-$12.54

EZTRADENL2

Down — $177.8

+$39.81

uninformedfloww

Down — $172.11

+$36.83

ply-pm0

Down — $132.51

+$0.92

GoodFallen

Down — $128.33

-$50.52

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $132

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded