Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET

19 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Down (68%) · Down at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 29

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$807.94

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 99.5¢

+71% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 28 top traders (68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,669

Combined PnL+$799.43

Up9 traders

Total Value$677.47

Total Shares1,580

Combined PnL+$8.51

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 52.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$144.19	54% 15270-12803 (28073)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 49.6¢	$705.2	$778.01	+$72.82	56% 13561-10816 (24377)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 88.9¢	$763.66	$770.82	+$7.16	57% 7636-5856 (13492)
TM tmsd-test	Downavg 50.4¢	$1.0K	$555.58	+$198.71	54% 14395-12216 (26611)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 57.6¢	$269.53	$394.07	+$124.54	55% 17439-14069 (31508)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 57.4¢	$350.11	$368.49	+$18.37	56% 12282-9482 (21764)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 48¢	$296.25	$353.71	+$57.45	66% 111604-57865 (169469)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 27.5¢	$182.69	$310.35	+$127.66	58% 37465-26708 (64173)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 49.9¢	$258.61	$295.08	+$36.47	49% 5030-5201 (10231)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 52¢	$189.38	$191.46	+$2.08	57% 11820-8806 (20626)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52¢	$144.54	$145.87	+$1.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.7¢	$44.84	$45.6	+$0.75
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 78.4¢	$127.13	$156.2	+$29.06	64% 57769-32502 (90271)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 56.3¢	$158.33	$136.95	-$21.38	55% 7219-5914 (13133)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.3¢	$99	$83.6	-$15.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.4¢	$59.33	$53.35	-$5.98
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 53.4¢	$240.67	$127.99	+$14.97	59% 6568-4537 (11105)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 56¢	$93.42	$121.72	+$28.3	60% 12015-7895 (19910)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 38.6¢	$231.57	$111	-$120.57	48% 23103-25256 (48359)
GA gansinimen<$100	Downavg 39¢	$66.99	$99.99	+$32.99	51% 16971-16536 (33507)
SE seeeeeeb<$100	Downavg 73¢	$72	$80.38	+$8.38	51% 675-657 (1332)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 28.1¢	$29.63	$55.37	+$25.74	46% 37948-44658 (82606)
SP spartacrayCTR<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$48.3	$53.67	+$5.36	53% 26919-23984 (50903)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 71.7¢	$27.36	$37.18	+$9.82	52% 89581-84030 (173611)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 75.4¢	$29.6	$31.99	+$2.39	55% 44266-36741 (81007)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 70¢	$27.06	$31.5	+$4.44	64% 39777-22734 (62511)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 42.3¢	$11.97	$15.7	+$3.73	34% 18574-35577 (54151)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 59.7¢	$16.55	$14.56	-$1.99	57% 10193-7628 (17821)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 44.1¢	$30.84	$12.4	+$17.4	65% 21975-12079 (34054)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,291.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$144.19

Record

54%

15270-12803 (28073)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$705.2

Value

$778.01

PnL

+$72.82

Record

56%

13561-10816 (24377)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$763.66

Value

$770.82

PnL

+$7.16

Record

57%

7636-5856 (13492)

tmsd-test

Down

Invested

$1,025.44

Value

$555.58

PnL

+$198.71

Record

54%

14395-12216 (26611)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$269.53

Value

$394.07

PnL

+$124.54

Record

55%

17439-14069 (31508)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$350.11

Value

$368.49

PnL

+$18.37

Record

56%

12282-9482 (21764)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$296.25

Value

$353.71

PnL

+$57.45

Record

66%

111604-57865 (169469)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$182.69

Value

$310.35

PnL

+$127.66

Record

58%

37465-26708 (64173)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$258.61

Value

$295.08

PnL

+$36.47

Record

49%

5030-5201 (10231)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$189.38

Value

$191.46

PnL

+$2.08

Record

57%

11820-8806 (20626)

Both legs:

Up$144.5452¢+$1.33

Down$44.8446.7¢+$0.75

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$127.13

Value

$156.2

PnL

+$29.06

Record

64%

57769-32502 (90271)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$158.33

Value

$136.95

PnL

-$21.38

Record

55%

7219-5914 (13133)

Both legs:

Down$9956.3¢-$15.4

Up$59.3358.4¢-$5.98

13897651CTR

Invested

$240.67

Value

$127.99

PnL

+$14.97

Record

59%

6568-4537 (11105)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$93.42

Value

$121.72

PnL

+$28.3

Record

60%

12015-7895 (19910)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$231.57

Value

$111

PnL

-$120.57

Record

48%

23103-25256 (48359)

gansinimen<$100

Down

Invested

$66.99

Value

$99.99

PnL

+$32.99

Record

51%

16971-16536 (33507)

seeeeeeb<$100

Down

Invested

$72

Value

$80.38

PnL

+$8.38

Record

51%

675-657 (1332)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$29.63

Value

$55.37

PnL

+$25.74

Record

46%

37948-44658 (82606)

spartacrayCTR<$100

Invested

$48.3

Value

$53.67

PnL

+$5.36

Record

53%

26919-23984 (50903)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$27.36

Value

$37.18

PnL

+$9.82

Record

52%

89581-84030 (173611)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$29.6

Value

$31.99

PnL

+$2.39

Record

55%

44266-36741 (81007)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$27.06

Value

$31.5

PnL

+$4.44

Record

64%

39777-22734 (62511)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$11.97

Value

$15.7

PnL

+$3.73

Record

34%

18574-35577 (54151)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$16.55

Value

$14.56

PnL

-$1.99

Record

57%

10193-7628 (17821)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$30.84

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$17.4

Record

65%

21975-12079 (34054)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 28 top traders (68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.