Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 81%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$-4.7K

Smart Money Signal

18 of 22 top traders (82%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,269

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Up18 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,900

Combined PnL+$172.45

Down — 18%Up — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Down	—	—	$-4.8K	56% 3627-2814 (6441)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 79.6¢	$613.64	$592.34	-$21.3	54% 15270-12803 (28073)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Upavg 84.4¢	$929.05	$501.16	-$74.78	54% 14395-12216 (26611)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.4¢	$423.06	$501.16	+$66.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.1¢	$141.2	—	-$141.72
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 91.9¢	$552.61	$556.25	+$3.64	57% 7636-5856 (13492)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 77¢	$248.82	$265.63	+$18.07	55% 7219-5914 (13133)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 80.9¢	$267.46	$200.79	-$66.66	56% 13561-10816 (24377)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.9¢	$162.46	$200.79	+$38.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.3¢	$105	—	-$105
SE seeeeeeb	Upavg 88¢	$208.49	$236.92	+$28.43	51% 675-657 (1332)
machinelearned	Upavg 82.6¢	$174.34	$211	+$36.66	55% 8447-6888 (15335)
SP spartacray	Upavg 81.4¢	$168.79	$199.99	+$31.2	53% 26919-23984 (50903)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 68.8¢	$217.82	$259.02	+$41.2	59% 6568-4537 (11105)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.8¢	$178.16	$259.02	+$80.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 43¢	$39.66	—	-$39.66
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 78.9¢	$133.19	$151.44	+$18.25	57% 11820-8806 (20626)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 82.5¢	$114.52	$128	+$13.48	60% 12015-7895 (19910)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 87.7¢	$119.63	$121.57	+$1.94	49% 5030-5201 (10231)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 84¢	$84	$100	+$16	55% 23690-19160 (42850)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 78¢	$78.23	$100.29	+$22.06	58% 60194-43949 (104143)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 88.8¢	$86	$91.51	+$5.5	55% 17439-14069 (31508)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 16.1¢	$66.37	$33.74	-$32.63	64% 57769-32502 (90271)
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.1¢	$38.7	—	-$38.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 82¢	$27.67	$33.74	+$6.07
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 17.1¢	$63.52	—	-$63.52	56% 12282-9482 (21764)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 90.4¢	$60.09	$52.28	-$7.81	66% 124813-64240 (189053)
GA gansinimen<$100	Upavg 91¢	$36.41	$40.01	+$3.6	51% 16971-16536 (33507)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 93.2¢	$41.46	$25	-$0.8	61% 94136-59204 (153340)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 90¢	$17.89	$19.88	+$1.99	65% 21975-12079 (34054)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 81¢	$6.58	$8.12	+$1.54	65% 3929-2114 (6043)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5ghCTR<$100	Downavg 7¢	$1.76	—	-$1.76	58% 1313-968 (2281)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 14.5¢	$3.49	—	-$3.49	52% 89581-84030 (173611)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

56%

3627-2814 (6441)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$613.64

Value

$592.34

PnL

-$21.3

Record

54%

15270-12803 (28073)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Invested

$929.05

Value

$501.16

PnL

-$74.78

Record

54%

14395-12216 (26611)

Both legs:

Up$423.0684.4¢+$66.94

Down$141.218.1¢-$141.72

wzbbb

Invested

$552.61

Value

$556.25

PnL

+$3.64

Record

57%

7636-5856 (13492)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$248.82

Value

$265.63

PnL

+$18.07

Record

55%

7219-5914 (13133)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$267.46

Value

$200.79

PnL

-$66.66

Record

56%

13561-10816 (24377)

Both legs:

Up$162.4680.9¢+$38.34

Down$10520.3¢-$105

seeeeeeb

Invested

$208.49

Value

$236.92

PnL

+$28.43

Record

51%

675-657 (1332)

machinelearned

Invested

$174.34

Value

$211

PnL

+$36.66

Record

55%

8447-6888 (15335)

spartacray

Invested

$168.79

Value

$199.99

PnL

+$31.2

Record

53%

26919-23984 (50903)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$217.82

Value

$259.02

PnL

+$41.2

Record

59%

6568-4537 (11105)

Both legs:

Up$178.1668.8¢+$80.86

Down$39.6643¢-$39.66

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$133.19

Value

$151.44

PnL

+$18.25

Record

57%

11820-8806 (20626)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$114.52

Value

$128

PnL

+$13.48

Record

60%

12015-7895 (19910)

ply-pm0

Invested

$119.63

Value

$121.57

PnL

+$1.94

Record

49%

5030-5201 (10231)

sir-upalot

Invested

$84

Value

$100

PnL

+$16

Record

55%

23690-19160 (42850)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$78.23

Value

$100.29

PnL

+$22.06

Record

58%

60194-43949 (104143)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$86

Value

$91.51

PnL

+$5.5

Record

55%

17439-14069 (31508)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$66.37

Value

$33.74

PnL

-$32.63

Record

64%

57769-32502 (90271)

Both legs:

Down$38.716.1¢-$38.7

Up$27.6782¢+$6.07

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$63.52

Value

—

PnL

-$63.52

Record

56%

12282-9482 (21764)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$60.09

Value

$52.28

PnL

-$7.81

Record

66%

124813-64240 (189053)

gansinimen<$100

Invested

$36.41

Value

$40.01

PnL

+$3.6

Record

51%

16971-16536 (33507)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$41.46

Value

$25

PnL

-$0.8

Record

61%

94136-59204 (153340)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$17.89

Value

$19.88

PnL

+$1.99

Record

65%

21975-12079 (34054)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$6.58

Value

$8.12

PnL

+$1.54

Record

65%

3929-2114 (6043)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5ghCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.76

Value

—

PnL

-$1.76

Record

58%

1313-968 (2281)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.49

Value

—

PnL

-$3.49

Record

52%

89581-84030 (173611)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 22 top traders (82%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xbd01fba7...15bff1

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793237100

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Down — $0

$-4.8K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $592.34

-$21.3

tmsd-test

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$74.78

wzbbb

Up — $556.25

+$3.64

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $265.63

+$18.07

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$66.66

seeeeeeb

Up — $236.92

+$28.43

machinelearned

Up — $211

+$36.66

spartacray

Up — $199.99

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded