Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

-$145.86

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 36 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down29 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares8,812

Combined PnL+$647.47

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,954

Combined PnL-$793.33

Down — 81%Up — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 79.5¢	$3.4K	$3.7K	+$260.87	52% 351-324 (675)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 91.3¢	$812.25	$793.57	-$18.68	57% 7636-5856 (13492)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 69.4¢	$710.88	$664.89	-$46	54% 15270-12803 (28073)
RO royalanchor02CTR	Upavg 14.5¢	$750	—	-$750	54% 53-46 (99)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 71.3¢	$444.06	$546.9	+$102.84	56% 13561-10816 (24377)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 61.7¢	$282.87	$422.27	+$139.4	56% 12282-9482 (21764)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 82.5¢	$349.43	$344.23	-$5.2	49% 5030-5201 (10231)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 74.5¢	$285.12	$326.25	+$41.14	51% 16971-16536 (33507)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Downavg 82.9¢	$367.85	$239.82	-$128.03	53% 1990-1797 (3787)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.9¢	$198.8	$239.82	+$41.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.3¢	$169.05	—	-$169.05
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 70.6¢	$272.73	$262.41	-$10.32	57% 11820-8806 (20626)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 86.3¢	$292.1	$240	-$52.1	64% 57769-32502 (90271)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 71.3¢	$229.86	$199.68	-$30.18	60% 12015-7895 (19910)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 47.9¢	$119.61	$185.76	+$66.16	58% 37465-26708 (64173)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 88.7¢	$165.43	$180.99	+$15.56	55% 7219-5914 (13133)
SP spartacray	Downavg 66.8¢	$121.85	$179.47	+$57.63	53% 26919-23984 (50903)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 87¢	$130.66	$150.18	+$19.52	62% 43627-26586 (70213)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 17.8¢	$139.09	$38.66	-$100.43	55% 8447-6888 (15335)
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.8¢	$107	—	-$107
└ Down leg	Downavg 83¢	$32.09	$38.66	+$6.57
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 92¢	$92.27	$100.29	+$8.02	56% 57668-44552 (102220)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 75.6¢	$75.05	$85.58	+$10.53	55% 17439-14069 (31508)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$59.39	$54	-$5.39	55% 44266-36741 (81007)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 74¢	$74.03	$100.04	+$26.01	58% 60194-43949 (104143)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 70.4¢	$45.01	$63.92	+$18.91	55% 23690-19160 (42850)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 92¢	$55.2	$60	+$4.8	65% 124444-66560 (191004)
TM tmsd-testCTR	Upavg 30.4¢	$1.5K	—	+$38.09	54% 14395-12216 (26611)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 88¢	$35.88	$40.77	+$4.89	65% 3929-2114 (6043)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$3,410.82

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$260.87

Record

52%

351-324 (675)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$812.25

Value

$793.57

PnL

-$18.68

Record

57%

7636-5856 (13492)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$710.88

Value

$664.89

PnL

-$46

Record

54%

15270-12803 (28073)

royalanchor02CTR

Invested

$750

Value

—

PnL

-$750

Record

54%

53-46 (99)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$444.06

Value

$546.9

PnL

+$102.84

Record

56%

13561-10816 (24377)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$282.87

Value

$422.27

PnL

+$139.4

Record

56%

12282-9482 (21764)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$349.43

Value

$344.23

PnL

-$5.2

Record

49%

5030-5201 (10231)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$285.12

Value

$326.25

PnL

+$41.14

Record

51%

16971-16536 (33507)

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Down

Invested

$367.85

Value

$239.82

PnL

-$128.03

Record

53%

1990-1797 (3787)

Both legs:

Down$198.882.9¢+$41.02

Up$169.0520.3¢-$169.05

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$272.73

Value

$262.41

PnL

-$10.32

Record

57%

11820-8806 (20626)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$292.1

Value

$240

PnL

-$52.1

Record

64%

57769-32502 (90271)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$229.86

Value

$199.68

PnL

-$30.18

Record

60%

12015-7895 (19910)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$119.61

Value

$185.76

PnL

+$66.16

Record

58%

37465-26708 (64173)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$165.43

Value

$180.99

PnL

+$15.56

Record

55%

7219-5914 (13133)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$121.85

Value

$179.47

PnL

+$57.63

Record

53%

26919-23984 (50903)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$130.66

Value

$150.18

PnL

+$19.52

Record

62%

43627-26586 (70213)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$139.09

Value

$38.66

PnL

-$100.43

Record

55%

8447-6888 (15335)

Both legs:

Up$10717.8¢-$107

Down$32.0983¢+$6.57

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$92.27

Value

$100.29

PnL

+$8.02

Record

56%

57668-44552 (102220)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$75.05

Value

$85.58

PnL

+$10.53

Record

55%

17439-14069 (31508)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$59.39

Value

$54

PnL

-$5.39

Record

55%

44266-36741 (81007)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$74.03

Value

$100.04

PnL

+$26.01

Record

58%

60194-43949 (104143)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$45.01

Value

$63.92

PnL

+$18.91

Record

55%

23690-19160 (42850)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$55.2

Value

$60

PnL

+$4.8

Record

65%

124444-66560 (191004)

tmsd-testCTR

Invested

$1,475.29

Value

—

PnL

+$38.09

Record

54%

14395-12216 (26611)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$35.88

Value

$40.77

PnL

+$4.89

Record

65%

3929-2114 (6043)

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 36 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xf47433a2...18f0f6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793236800

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $3.7K

+$260.87

wzbbb

Down — $793.57

-$18.68

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $664.89

-$46

royalanchor02

CTR

Up — $0

-$750

GoodFallen

Down — $546.9

+$102.84

FairValueMachine

Down — $422.27

+$139.4

ply-pm0

Down — $344.23

-$5.2

gansinimen

Down — $326.25

+$41.14

0xdc27...afdd9a

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$128.03

EZTRADENL2

Down — $262.41

-$10.32

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