Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

-$488.38

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 28 top traders (61%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares6,291

Combined PnL+$504.52

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,110

Combined PnL-$992.9

Down — 61%Up — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.01	74% 102203-36340 (138543)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$16.1	93% 22775-1740 (24515)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 57.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$37.57	54% 15270-12803 (28073)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.5¢	$774.59	—	-$774.59
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.5¢	$626.53	$1.4K	+$812.16
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 41.9¢	$525.45	$654.08	+$128.63	56% 13561-10816 (24377)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.7¢	$251.42	—	-$251.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.9¢	$274.03	$654.08	+$380.04
TM tmsd-testCTR	Upavg 54¢	$1.4K	—	-$624.63	54% 14395-12216 (26611)
machinelearned	Downavg 49.3¢	$80	$100	+$20	55% 8447-6888 (15335)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 57.6¢	$307.23	$308.95	+$1.71	49% 5030-5201 (10231)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 29.9¢	$115.15	$195.73	+$80.58	64% 57769-32502 (90271)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 53.4¢	$303.65	$299.83	-$3.82	57% 7636-5856 (13492)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45¢	$143.56	—	-$143.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.4¢	$160.1	$299.83	+$139.73
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 38.4¢	$283.14	$532.85	+$249.72	56% 12282-9482 (21764)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.4¢	$204.82	$532.85	+$328.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.8¢	$78.31	—	-$78.31
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 75.8¢	$187.69	$239	+$51.3	58% 37465-26708 (64173)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 95.9¢	$172.96	$180.42	+$7.46	55% 44266-36741 (81007)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 38.1¢	$109.33	—	-$109.33	57% 11820-8806 (20626)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 85.7¢	$353.28	$318.11	-$35.17	60% 12015-7895 (19910)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.5¢	$80.52	—	-$80.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.7¢	$272.76	$318.11	+$45.35
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Upavg 60.6¢	$111.84	—	-$110.09	55% 7219-5914 (13133)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 46.2¢	$56.4	—	-$56.4	57% 10193-7628 (17821)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 38.8¢	$38.82	$76.98	+$38.15	65% 124444-66560 (191004)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 70.9¢	$61.31	—	-$61.31	66% 111604-57865 (169469)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$40.59	—	-$40.59	48% 23103-25256 (48359)
SP spartacray	Downavg 48.1¢	$65.98	$124.68	+$58.7	53% 26919-23984 (50903)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 33.8¢	$38.16	$112.73	+$74.57	55% 17439-14069 (31508)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 37¢	$37.1	$100.28	+$63.18	58% 60194-43949 (104143)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 90.4¢	$50.03	$45.5	-$4.53	66% 124813-64240 (189053)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 93.7¢	$64.62	$68.93	+$4.31	46% 37948-44658 (82606)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 33¢	$17.65	$44.25	+$26.6	56% 57668-44552 (102220)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$2,970.89

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.01

Record

74%

102203-36340 (138543)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,593.9

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$16.1

Record

93%

22775-1740 (24515)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,401.12

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$37.57

Record

54%

15270-12803 (28073)

Both legs:

Up$774.5957.5¢-$774.59

Down$626.5343.5¢+$812.16

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$525.45

Value

$654.08

PnL

+$128.63

Record

56%

13561-10816 (24377)

Both legs:

Up$251.4259.7¢-$251.42

Down$274.0341.9¢+$380.04

tmsd-testCTR

Invested

$1,431.23

Value

—

PnL

-$624.63

Record

54%

14395-12216 (26611)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$80

Value

$100

PnL

+$20

Record

55%

8447-6888 (15335)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$307.23

Value

$308.95

PnL

+$1.71

Record

49%

5030-5201 (10231)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$115.15

Value

$195.73

PnL

+$80.58

Record

64%

57769-32502 (90271)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$303.65

Value

$299.83

PnL

-$3.82

Record

57%

7636-5856 (13492)

Both legs:

Up$143.5645¢-$143.56

Down$160.153.4¢+$139.73

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$283.14

Value

$532.85

PnL

+$249.72

Record

56%

12282-9482 (21764)

Both legs:

Down$204.8238.4¢+$328.03

Up$78.3150.8¢-$78.31

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$187.69

Value

$239

PnL

+$51.3

Record

58%

37465-26708 (64173)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$172.96

Value

$180.42

PnL

+$7.46

Record

55%

44266-36741 (81007)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$109.33

Value

—

PnL

-$109.33

Record

57%

11820-8806 (20626)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$353.28

Value

$318.11

PnL

-$35.17

Record

60%

12015-7895 (19910)

Both legs:

Up$80.5281.5¢-$80.52

Down$272.7685.7¢+$45.35

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Invested

$111.84

Value

—

PnL

-$110.09

Record

55%

7219-5914 (13133)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$56.4

Value

—

PnL

-$56.4

Record

57%

10193-7628 (17821)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$38.82

Value

$76.98

PnL

+$38.15

Record

65%

124444-66560 (191004)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$61.31

Value

—

PnL

-$61.31

Record

66%

111604-57865 (169469)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$40.59

Value

—

PnL

-$40.59

Record

48%

23103-25256 (48359)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$65.98

Value

$124.68

PnL

+$58.7

Record

53%

26919-23984 (50903)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$38.16

Value

$112.73

PnL

+$74.57

Record

55%

17439-14069 (31508)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$37.1

Value

$100.28

PnL

+$63.18

Record

58%

60194-43949 (104143)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$50.03

Value

$45.5

PnL

-$4.53

Record

66%

124813-64240 (189053)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$64.62

Value

$68.93

PnL

+$4.31

Record

46%

37948-44658 (82606)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$17.65

Value

$44.25

PnL

+$26.6

Record

56%

57668-44552 (102220)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 28 top traders (61%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x261f08fa...35de85

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793236500

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Down — $3.0K

+$30.01

hoodquant

Down — $1.6K

+$16.1

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

tmsd-test

Up — $0

machinelearned

Down — $100

+$20

ply-pm0

Down — $308.95

+$1.71

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $195.73

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded