Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 39% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Up 35%
1 arb excluded
$7.3K
$-1.6K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 33 top traders (39%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 39.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.8K | +$447.79 | 54% 15270-12803 (28073) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$15.07 | 56% 29266-23027 (52293) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 58.7¢ | $650.37 | — | -$650.37 | 56% 13561-10816 (24377) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 49.7¢ | $326.5 | — | -$326.5 | 57% 7636-5856 (13492) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 46.4¢ | $411.76 | — | -$411.76 | 49% 5030-5201 (10231) |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Downavg 61.8¢ | $1.8K | — | -$512.1 | 54% 14395-12216 (26611) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 78.8¢ | $378.46 | — | -$378.46 | 64% 57769-32502 (90271) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 56.4¢ | $406.61 | $391.06 | -$13.2 | 60% 12015-7895 (19910) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 25.1¢ | $575.43 | $2.3K | +$1.7K | 58% 37465-26708 (64173) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Downavg 60.8¢ | $335.79 | — | -$335.79 | 57% 11820-8806 (20626) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 87.6¢ | $290.4 | $275.32 | -$15.08 | 55% 7219-5914 (13133) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $350.23 | $432.75 | +$82.52 | 56% 12282-9482 (21764) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.4¢ | $133.19 | — | -$133.19 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.2¢ | $217.03 | $432.75 | +$215.71 | |
GA gansinimenCTR | Downavg 63.3¢ | $260.4 | — | -$260.4 | 51% 16971-16536 (33507) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR | Downavg 79.5¢ | $189.46 | — | -$189.46 | 55% 17439-14069 (31508) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 92.1¢ | $272.9 | $183.63 | -$89.27 | 77% 9307-2743 (12050) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR | Downavg 87.3¢ | $340.4 | — | -$340.4 | 55% 44266-36741 (81007) |
AN antsaslyku | Upavg 70.5¢ | $134.34 | $127.68 | -$6.66 | 66% 111604-57865 (169469) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 52.1¢ | $88.74 | $125.82 | +$37.08 | 57% 10193-7628 (17821) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $83.84 | — | -$83.84 | 56% 57668-44552 (102220) |
SP spartacrayCTR<$100 | Downavg 72.1¢ | $69.35 | — | -$69.35 | 53% 26919-23984 (50903) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Downavg 76.8¢ | $50.82 | — | -$50.82 | 55% 23690-19160 (42850) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 85.3¢ | $37.19 | — | -$37.19 | 66% 124813-64240 (189053) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $61.08 | — | -$61.08 | 55% 8447-6888 (15335) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 50.6¢ | $28.4 | — | -$28.4 | 34% 18574-35577 (54151) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 24.1¢ | $32.27 | $134.05 | +$101.78 | 46% 37948-44658 (82606) |
Invested
$1,366.9
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$447.79
Record
54%
15270-12803 (28073)
Invested
$1,491.69
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$15.07
Record
56%
29266-23027 (52293)
Invested
$650.37
Value
—
PnL
-$650.37
Record
56%
13561-10816 (24377)
Invested
$326.5
Value
—
PnL
-$326.5
Record
57%
7636-5856 (13492)
Invested
$411.76
Value
—
PnL
-$411.76
Record
49%
5030-5201 (10231)
Invested
$1,787.2
Value
—
PnL
-$512.1
Record
54%
14395-12216 (26611)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$378.46
Value
—
PnL
-$378.46
Record
64%
57769-32502 (90271)
Invested
$406.61
Value
$391.06
PnL
-$13.2
Record
60%
12015-7895 (19910)
Invested
$575.43
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
58%
37465-26708 (64173)
Invested
$335.79
Value
—
PnL
-$335.79
Record
57%
11820-8806 (20626)
Invested
$290.4
Value
$275.32
PnL
-$15.08
Record
55%
7219-5914 (13133)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$350.23
Value
$432.75
PnL
+$82.52
Record
56%
12282-9482 (21764)
Both legs:
Invested
$260.4
Value
—
PnL
-$260.4
Record
51%
16971-16536 (33507)
Invested
$189.46
Value
—
PnL
-$189.46
Record
55%
17439-14069 (31508)
NIULAI4Invested
$272.9
Value
$183.63
PnL
-$89.27
Record
77%
9307-2743 (12050)
MayorMamdaniCTRInvested
$340.4
Value
—
PnL
-$340.4
Record
55%
44266-36741 (81007)
Invested
$134.34
Value
$127.68
PnL
-$6.66
Record
66%
111604-57865 (169469)
Invested
$88.74
Value
$125.82
PnL
+$37.08
Record
57%
10193-7628 (17821)
Invested
$83.84
Value
—
PnL
-$83.84
Record
56%
57668-44552 (102220)
Invested
$69.35
Value
—
PnL
-$69.35
Record
53%
26919-23984 (50903)
Invested
$50.82
Value
—
PnL
-$50.82
Record
55%
23690-19160 (42850)
Invested
$37.19
Value
—
PnL
-$37.19
Record
66%
124813-64240 (189053)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$61.08
Value
—
PnL
-$61.08
Record
55%
8447-6888 (15335)
Invested
$28.4
Value
—
PnL
-$28.4
Record
34%
18574-35577 (54151)
pspspsps5Invested
$32.27
Value
$134.05
PnL
+$101.78
Record
46%
37948-44658 (82606)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.8K
THG.
Up — $1.5K
GoodFallen
CTRDown — $0
wzbbb
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0
tmsd-test
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $391.06
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $2.3K
EZTRADENL2
CTRDown — $0