Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 28% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 27%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.9K

Combined PnL

$-9.4K

Smart Money Signal

9 of 32 top traders (28%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares24,508

Combined PnL$-9.8K

Down23 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares8,872

Combined PnL+$422.05

Up — 28%Down — 72%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Downavg 59.1¢	$9.2K	$9.8K	+$649.43	52% 351-324 (675)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.1¢	$5.8K	$9.8K	+$4.0K
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.6¢	$3.4K	—	$-3.4K
RO royalanchor02CTR	Upavg 42.5¢	$7.1K	—	$-7.1K	54% 53-46 (99)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 53.3¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$23.79	54% 15270-12803 (28073)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 58.9¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$131.83	64% 57769-32502 (90271)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 52.2¢	$967.08	$991.28	+$24.19	49% 5030-5201 (10231)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 58.2¢	$817.53	$910.44	+$92.91	60% 12015-7895 (19910)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Upavg 41.2¢	$1.5K	$584.79	-$890.12	53% 1990-1797 (3787)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.7¢	$296.32	$584.79	+$288.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.2¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 48¢	$548.87	$629.88	+$81.01	56% 13561-10816 (24377)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 69.1¢	$596.16	$629.74	+$33.58	57% 7636-5856 (13492)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 41¢	$807.76	—	-$807.76	58% 37465-26708 (64173)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 62.9¢	$481.16	$504	+$22.84	51% 16971-16536 (33507)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.9¢	$317.16	$504	+$186.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.8¢	$164	—	-$164
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 57.4¢	$555.04	$523.62	-$31.42	66% 111604-57865 (169469)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.4¢	$300.32	$523.62	+$223.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.8¢	$254.72	—	-$254.72
FairValueMachine	Downavg 48.9¢	$455.28	$493.76	+$38.48	56% 12282-9482 (21764)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Upavg 52.7¢	$642.03	—	-$642.03	55% 7219-5914 (13133)
machinelearned	Downavg 53.5¢	$282.5	$500	+$217.5	55% 8447-6888 (15335)
TM tmsd-testCTR	Upavg 41.2¢	$3.4K	—	-$837.14	54% 14395-12216 (26611)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 59¢	$393.57	$378.58	-$14.99	57% 11820-8806 (20626)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 70.3¢	$401.74	$337.55	-$64.19	55% 23690-19160 (42850)
BO borderlocketCTR	Upavg 11.1¢	$457.64	—	-$457.64	54% 57-48 (105)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 81.3¢	$346.69	$287.54	-$59.15	57% 10193-7628 (17821)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 84.8¢	$359.79	$301	-$24.74	48% 23103-25256 (48359)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$196.4	$218	+$21.6	55% 17439-14069 (31508)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.6¢	$125.55	$218	+$92.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.2¢	$70.85	—	-$70.85
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 59¢	$169.63	$149.2	-$20.44	55% 44266-36741 (81007)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59¢	$87.97	$149.2	+$61.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 51¢	$81.66	—	-$81.66
LI Little-big	Downavg 33.9¢	$66.81	$197.01	+$130.2	34% 18574-35577 (54151)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 61.8¢	$108.87	$76.76	-$32.11	55% 49293-39546 (88839)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.8¢	$85.71	—	-$85.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.2¢	$23.16	$76.76	+$53.6

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$9,163.3

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$649.43

Record

52%

351-324 (675)

Both legs:

Down$5,796.5259.1¢+$4.0K

Up$3,366.7842.6¢$-3.4K

royalanchor02CTR

Invested

$7,056.29

Value

—

PnL

$-7.1K

Record

54%

53-46 (99)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,649.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$23.79

Record

54%

15270-12803 (28073)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,250.86

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$131.83

Record

64%

57769-32502 (90271)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$967.08

Value

$991.28

PnL

+$24.19

Record

49%

5030-5201 (10231)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$817.53

Value

$910.44

PnL

+$92.91

Record

60%

12015-7895 (19910)

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Invested

$1,474.91

Value

$584.79

PnL

-$890.12

Record

53%

1990-1797 (3787)

Both legs:

Down$296.3250.7¢+$288.47

Up$1,178.5941.2¢$-1.2K

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$548.87

Value

$629.88

PnL

+$81.01

Record

56%

13561-10816 (24377)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$596.16

Value

$629.74

PnL

+$33.58

Record

57%

7636-5856 (13492)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$807.76

Value

—

PnL

-$807.76

Record

58%

37465-26708 (64173)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$481.16

Value

$504

PnL

+$22.84

Record

51%

16971-16536 (33507)

Both legs:

Down$317.1662.9¢+$186.84

Up$16432.8¢-$164

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$555.04

Value

$523.62

PnL

-$31.42

Record

66%

111604-57865 (169469)

Both legs:

Down$300.3257.4¢+$223.3

Up$254.7257.8¢-$254.72

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$455.28

Value

$493.76

PnL

+$38.48

Record

56%

12282-9482 (21764)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Invested

$642.03

Value

—

PnL

-$642.03

Record

55%

7219-5914 (13133)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$282.5

Value

$500

PnL

+$217.5

Record

55%

8447-6888 (15335)

tmsd-testCTR

Invested

$3,442.32

Value

—

PnL

-$837.14

Record

54%

14395-12216 (26611)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$393.57

Value

$378.58

PnL

-$14.99

Record

57%

11820-8806 (20626)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$401.74

Value

$337.55

PnL

-$64.19

Record

55%

23690-19160 (42850)

borderlocketCTR

Invested

$457.64

Value

—

PnL

-$457.64

Record

54%

57-48 (105)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$346.69

Value

$287.54

PnL

-$59.15

Record

57%

10193-7628 (17821)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$359.79

Value

$301

PnL

-$24.74

Record

48%

23103-25256 (48359)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$196.4

Value

$218

PnL

+$21.6

Record

55%

17439-14069 (31508)

Both legs:

Down$125.5557.6¢+$92.45

Up$70.8551.2¢-$70.85

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$169.63

Value

$149.2

PnL

-$20.44

Record

55%

44266-36741 (81007)

Both legs:

Invested

$66.81

Value

$197.01

PnL

+$130.2

Record

34%

18574-35577 (54151)

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$108.87

Value

$76.76

PnL

-$32.11

Record

55%

49293-39546 (88839)

Both legs:

Up$85.7161.8¢-$85.71

Down$23.1630.2¢+$53.6

Smart Money Signal

9 of 32 top traders (28%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xbd1cbf19...8c664e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793235900

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Arbitrage — excluded

royalanchor02

Up — $0

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.6K

-$23.79

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $1.1K

-$131.83

ply-pm0

Down — $991.28

+$24.19

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $910.44

+$92.91

0xdc27...afdd9a

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$890.12

GoodFallen

Down — $629.88

+$81.01

wzbbb

Down — $629.74

+$33.58

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$807.76

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