Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
34
Down 82%
2 arb excluded
$14.2K
-$667.01
Smart Money Signal
27 of 34 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $5.3K | $5.3K | +$5.34 | 59% 62031-43103 (105134) |
OX oxe78sh4w98 | Downavg 75.2¢ | $1.8K | $2.1K | +$343.17 | 52% 351-324 (675) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 94¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$84.66 | 57% 7636-5856 (13492) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.2¢ | $576.25 | $593.14 | +$16.9 | 93% 22775-1740 (24515) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 71.8¢ | $538.45 | $552.19 | +$13.74 | 54% 15270-12803 (28073) |
RO royalanchor02CTR | Upavg 15.7¢ | $410 | — | -$410 | 54% 53-46 (99) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 92.1¢ | $442.22 | $480.17 | +$37.95 | 55% 44266-36741 (81007) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 87.6¢ | $390.76 | $413.22 | +$22.46 | 64% 57769-32502 (90271) |
BO borderlocketCTR | Upavg 36.8¢ | $728.49 | — | -$728.49 | 54% 57-48 (105) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 82.6¢ | $266.95 | $296.89 | +$29.95 | 55% 8447-6888 (15335) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100 | Downavg 80.4¢ | $302.87 | $213 | -$89.87 | 53% 1990-1797 (3787) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80.4¢ | $171.35 | $213 | +$41.65 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22.6¢ | $131.52 | — | -$131.52 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 75¢ | $250.83 | $287.32 | +$36.5 | 55% 7219-5914 (13133) |
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 71.5¢ | $1.1K | $244.38 | -$166.6 | 54% 14395-12216 (26611) |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Upavg 39.1¢ | $162.44 | — | -$162.44 | 35% 95-180 (275) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 84.2¢ | $221.43 | $207.67 | -$13.75 | 49% 5030-5201 (10231) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 69.8¢ | $182.15 | $206.4 | +$24.26 | 56% 13561-10816 (24377) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 65.2¢ | $117.81 | $165 | +$47.2 | 57% 11820-8806 (20626) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $128.25 | $147 | +$18.75 | 58% 37465-26708 (64173) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52¢ | $76.44 | $147 | +$70.56 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.3¢ | $51.81 | — | -$51.81 | |
LI Little-big | Downavg 55.9¢ | $138.24 | $247.21 | +$108.97 | 34% 18574-35577 (54151) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 72¢ | $97.36 | $119.8 | +$22.44 | 56% 12282-9482 (21764) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 85.5¢ | $88.61 | $88 | -$0.61 | 60% 12015-7895 (19910) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 96¢ | $106.32 | $67.7 | -$38.62 | 46% 37948-44658 (82606) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 58.9¢ | $50.96 | $67.79 | +$16.83 | 55% 23690-19160 (42850) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $45.75 | $62 | +$16.25 | 55% 49293-39546 (88839) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $46.8 | $60 | +$13.2 | 65% 124444-66560 (191004) |
Invested
$5,338.62
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$5.34
Record
59%
62031-43103 (105134)
Invested
$1,790.39
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$343.17
Record
52%
351-324 (675)
Invested
$1,837.03
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$84.66
Record
57%
7636-5856 (13492)
Invested
$576.25
Value
$593.14
PnL
+$16.9
Record
93%
22775-1740 (24515)
Invested
$538.45
Value
$552.19
PnL
+$13.74
Record
54%
15270-12803 (28073)
Invested
$410
Value
—
PnL
-$410
Record
54%
53-46 (99)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$442.22
Value
$480.17
PnL
+$37.95
Record
55%
44266-36741 (81007)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$390.76
Value
$413.22
PnL
+$22.46
Record
64%
57769-32502 (90271)
Invested
$728.49
Value
—
PnL
-$728.49
Record
54%
57-48 (105)
machinelearnedInvested
$266.95
Value
$296.89
PnL
+$29.95
Record
55%
8447-6888 (15335)
Invested
$302.87
Value
$213
PnL
-$89.87
Record
53%
1990-1797 (3787)
Both legs:
Invested
$250.83
Value
$287.32
PnL
+$36.5
Record
55%
7219-5914 (13133)
Invested
$1,052.28
Value
$244.38
PnL
-$166.6
Record
54%
14395-12216 (26611)
Invested
$162.44
Value
—
PnL
-$162.44
Record
35%
95-180 (275)
Invested
$221.43
Value
$207.67
PnL
-$13.75
Record
49%
5030-5201 (10231)
Invested
$182.15
Value
$206.4
PnL
+$24.26
Record
56%
13561-10816 (24377)
Invested
$117.81
Value
$165
PnL
+$47.2
Record
57%
11820-8806 (20626)
Invested
$128.25
Value
$147
PnL
+$18.75
Record
58%
37465-26708 (64173)
Both legs:
Invested
$138.24
Value
$247.21
PnL
+$108.97
Record
34%
18574-35577 (54151)
FairValueMachineInvested
$97.36
Value
$119.8
PnL
+$22.44
Record
56%
12282-9482 (21764)
Invested
$88.61
Value
$88
PnL
-$0.61
Record
60%
12015-7895 (19910)
pspspsps5Invested
$106.32
Value
$67.7
PnL
-$38.62
Record
46%
37948-44658 (82606)
Invested
$50.96
Value
$67.79
PnL
+$16.83
Record
55%
23690-19160 (42850)
Invested
$45.75
Value
$62
PnL
+$16.25
Record
55%
49293-39546 (88839)
Invested
$46.8
Value
$60
PnL
+$13.2
Record
65%
124444-66560 (191004)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $5.3K
oxe78sh4w98
Down — $2.1K
wzbbb
Down — $1.9K
hoodquant
Down — $593.14
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $552.19
royalanchor02
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $480.17
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $413.22
borderlocket
CTRUp — $0
machinelearned
Down — $296.89