Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 72%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.1K

Combined PnL

$-5.8K

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 42 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares35,337

Combined PnL$-7.6K

Down28 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares15,412

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Downavg 62.4¢	$4.9K	$4.4K	-$534.12	52% 351-324 (675)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.4¢	$2.7K	$4.4K	+$1.7K
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.8¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.2K
RO royalanchor02CTR	Upavg 39.2¢	$4.6K	—	$-4.6K	54% 53-46 (99)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.06	56% 29266-23027 (52293)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$19.31	59% 62031-43103 (105134)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR	Upavg 30.1¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	51% 870-844 (1714)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 60.1¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$172.49	55% 7219-5914 (13133)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 62.1¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$19.72	56% 13561-10816 (24377)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 65.4¢	$894.01	$874.55	-$19.46	56% 12282-9482 (21764)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.4¢	$572.36	$874.55	+$302.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.7¢	$321.65	—	-$321.65
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 68.8¢	$791.23	$774.74	-$16.49	49% 5030-5201 (10231)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 62.3¢	$739.81	$827.87	+$88.06	55% 8447-6888 (15335)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.3¢	$515.8	$827.87	+$312.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.3¢	$224.01	—	-$224.01
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 65.7¢	$943.97	$745.94	+$150.38	64% 57769-32502 (90271)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 85.1¢	$628.06	$726.03	+$97.97	55% 44266-36741 (81007)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 66.5¢	$882.6	$707.89	-$172.81	60% 12015-7895 (19910)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 70.7¢	$436.15	$617.12	+$180.97	58% 37465-26708 (64173)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$603.73	$616	+$12.27	93% 22775-1740 (24515)
BE berlinskies	Downavg 42.5¢	$379.88	$893.41	+$513.52	58% 5777-4233 (10010)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 75¢	$407.91	$458.85	+$50.94	57% 7636-5856 (13492)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 55.8¢	$439.8	$451.55	+$11.74	55% 23690-19160 (42850)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.8¢	$251.74	$451.55	+$199.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.9¢	$188.06	—	-$188.06
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR	Upavg 21.4¢	$814.7	—	-$814.7	53% 1990-1797 (3787)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR	Upavg 44¢	$323.02	—	-$323.02	63% 1755-1021 (2776)
AtomforgeCTR	Upavg 36¢	$312.61	—	-$312.61	65% 3929-2114 (6043)
NIULAI4	Downavg 90.8¢	$264.42	$275.86	+$11.44	77% 9307-2743 (12050)
pspspsps5	Downavg 58.9¢	$229.27	$389.1	+$159.83	46% 37948-44658 (82606)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh	Downavg 50.8¢	$105.79	$195.46	+$89.67	58% 1313-968 (2281)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 64.2¢	$192.69	$300	+$107.31	48% 23103-25256 (48359)

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,926.59

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$534.12

Record

52%

351-324 (675)

Both legs:

Down$2,740.3162.4¢+$1.7K

Up$2,186.2839.8¢$-2.2K

royalanchor02CTR

Invested

$4,649.82

Value

—

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

54%

53-46 (99)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,975.94

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.06

Record

56%

29266-23027 (52293)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$1,911.93

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$19.31

Record

59%

62031-43103 (105134)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR

Invested

$1,060.05

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

870-844 (1714)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$1,128.79

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$172.49

Record

55%

7219-5914 (13133)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$1,264.11

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$19.72

Record

56%

13561-10816 (24377)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$894.01

Value

$874.55

PnL

-$19.46

Record

56%

12282-9482 (21764)

Both legs:

Down$572.3665.4¢+$302.19

Up$321.6545.7¢-$321.65

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$791.23

Value

$774.74

PnL

-$16.49

Record

49%

5030-5201 (10231)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$739.81

Value

$827.87

PnL

+$88.06

Record

55%

8447-6888 (15335)

Both legs:

Down$515.862.3¢+$312.07

Up$224.0138.3¢-$224.01

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$943.97

Value

$745.94

PnL

+$150.38

Record

64%

57769-32502 (90271)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$628.06

Value

$726.03

PnL

+$97.97

Record

55%

44266-36741 (81007)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$882.6

Value

$707.89

PnL

-$172.81

Record

60%

12015-7895 (19910)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$436.15

Value

$617.12

PnL

+$180.97

Record

58%

37465-26708 (64173)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$603.73

Value

$616

PnL

+$12.27

Record

93%

22775-1740 (24515)

berlinskies

Down

Invested

$379.88

Value

$893.41

PnL

+$513.52

Record

58%

5777-4233 (10010)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$407.91

Value

$458.85

PnL

+$50.94

Record

57%

7636-5856 (13492)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$439.8

Value

$451.55

PnL

+$11.74

Record

55%

23690-19160 (42850)

Both legs:

Down$251.7455.8¢+$199.8

Up$188.0644.9¢-$188.06

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR

Invested

$814.7

Value

—

PnL

-$814.7

Record

53%

1990-1797 (3787)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR

Invested

$323.02

Value

—

PnL

-$323.02

Record

63%

1755-1021 (2776)

AtomforgeCTR

Invested

$312.61

Value

—

PnL

-$312.61

Record

65%

3929-2114 (6043)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$264.42

Value

$275.86

PnL

+$11.44

Record

77%

9307-2743 (12050)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$229.27

Value

$389.1

PnL

+$159.83

Record

46%

37948-44658 (82606)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

Down

Invested

$105.79

Value

$195.46

PnL

+$89.67

Record

58%

1313-968 (2281)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$192.69

Value

$300

PnL

+$107.31

Record

48%

23103-25256 (48359)

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 42 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x44d3f785...efa156

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793235300

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Arbitrage — excluded

royalanchor02

Up — $0

THG.

Down — $3.0K

+$30.06

0x50f7

Down — $1.9K

+$19.31

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.1K

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $1.3K

+$172.49

GoodFallen

Down — $1.2K

-$19.72

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$19.46

ply-pm0

Down — $774.74

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded