Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 87%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.0K

Combined PnL

$529.35

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 32 top traders (84%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down27 traders

Total Value$23.8K

Total Shares23,793

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,671

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Down — 84%Up — 16%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO royalanchor02	Downavg 66.3¢	$5.3K	$7.1K	+$1.8K	54% 53-46 (99)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 68.2¢	$5.4K	$6.9K	+$1.5K	52% 351-324 (675)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Upavg 40.3¢	$2.3K	$1.2K	$-1.1K	65% 3929-2114 (6043)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.2¢	$784.41	$1.2K	+$383.73
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 60.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$68.38	53% 1990-1797 (3787)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 87.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$61.13	57% 7636-5856 (13492)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 67.6¢	$917.97	$926.9	+$8.93	49% 5030-5201 (10231)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 72.6¢	$793.29	$757.39	-$6.5	64% 57769-32502 (90271)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 61.4¢	$593.3	$629.46	+$36.16	51% 16971-16536 (33507)
TM tmsd-test	Downavg 70.5¢	$1.9K	$522.37	-$57.48	54% 14395-12216 (26611)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 64.8¢	$517.34	$486.16	-$31.18	56% 13561-10816 (24377)
BE berlinskies	Downavg 54.8¢	$364.96	$666.07	+$301.11	58% 5777-4233 (10010)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 67.2¢	$369.1	$459.65	+$90.56	55% 23690-19160 (42850)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 66.9¢	$409.77	$477.63	+$67.86	55% 7219-5914 (13133)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 37.8¢	$531.51	$325	-$206.51	55% 8447-6888 (15335)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.2¢	$221.75	$325	+$103.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.8¢	$309.76	—	-$309.76
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 64.1¢	$378.04	$422.34	+$44.3	57% 11820-8806 (20626)
BO borderlocketCTR	Upavg 36.8¢	$3.3K	—	$-3.3K	54% 57-48 (105)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 74.3¢	$319.17	$300.31	-$18.8	60% 12015-7895 (19910)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh	Downavg 61.2¢	$181.23	$296.17	+$114.95	58% 1313-968 (2281)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 79¢	$237.22	$300.28	+$63.06	56% 57668-44552 (102220)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 28.5¢	$263.43	$168.1	-$95.32	57% 10193-7628 (17821)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.5¢	$111.8	$168.1	+$56.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.5¢	$151.63	—	-$151.63
pspspsps5	Downavg 82.3¢	$250.89	$241.5	-$9.39	46% 37948-44658 (82606)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 33.3¢	$291.97	—	-$291.97	56% 12282-9482 (21764)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 60.4¢	$218.61	$195.37	-$23.24	55% 44266-36741 (81007)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.4¢	$118.02	$195.37	+$77.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.1¢	$100.59	—	-$100.59
ohioism	Downavg 78.4¢	$199.23	$254.12	+$54.89	64% 39777-22734 (62511)
LI Little-big	Downavg 57.1¢	$151.04	$252.36	+$101.31	34% 18574-35577 (54151)

royalanchor02

Down

Invested

$5,286.16

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

54%

53-46 (99)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$5,382.95

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

52%

351-324 (675)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Invested

$2,303.22

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

65%

3929-2114 (6043)

Both legs:

Up$1,518.8140.3¢$-1.5K

Down$784.4167.2¢+$383.73

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$1,297.96

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$68.38

Record

53%

1990-1797 (3787)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,090.94

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$61.13

Record

57%

7636-5856 (13492)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$917.97

Value

$926.9

PnL

+$8.93

Record

49%

5030-5201 (10231)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$793.29

Value

$757.39

PnL

-$6.5

Record

64%

57769-32502 (90271)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$593.3

Value

$629.46

PnL

+$36.16

Record

51%

16971-16536 (33507)

tmsd-test

Down

Invested

$1,948.7

Value

$522.37

PnL

-$57.48

Record

54%

14395-12216 (26611)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$517.34

Value

$486.16

PnL

-$31.18

Record

56%

13561-10816 (24377)

berlinskies

Down

Invested

$364.96

Value

$666.07

PnL

+$301.11

Record

58%

5777-4233 (10010)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$369.1

Value

$459.65

PnL

+$90.56

Record

55%

23690-19160 (42850)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$409.77

Value

$477.63

PnL

+$67.86

Record

55%

7219-5914 (13133)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$531.51

Value

$325

PnL

-$206.51

Record

55%

8447-6888 (15335)

Both legs:

Down$221.7568.2¢+$103.25

Up$309.7637.8¢-$309.76

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$378.04

Value

$422.34

PnL

+$44.3

Record

57%

11820-8806 (20626)

borderlocketCTR

Invested

$3,346.11

Value

—

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

54%

57-48 (105)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$319.17

Value

$300.31

PnL

-$18.8

Record

60%

12015-7895 (19910)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

Down

Invested

$181.23

Value

$296.17

PnL

+$114.95

Record

58%

1313-968 (2281)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$237.22

Value

$300.28

PnL

+$63.06

Record

56%

57668-44552 (102220)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$263.43

Value

$168.1

PnL

-$95.32

Record

57%

10193-7628 (17821)

Both legs:

Down$111.866.5¢+$56.3

Up$151.6328.5¢-$151.63

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$250.89

Value

$241.5

PnL

-$9.39

Record

46%

37948-44658 (82606)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$291.97

Value

—

PnL

-$291.97

Record

56%

12282-9482 (21764)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$218.61

Value

$195.37

PnL

-$23.24

Record

55%

44266-36741 (81007)

Both legs:

Down$118.0260.4¢+$77.35

Up$100.5938.1¢-$100.59

ohioism

Down

Invested

$199.23

Value

$254.12

PnL

+$54.89

Record

64%

39777-22734 (62511)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$151.04

Value

$252.36

PnL

+$101.31

Record

34%

18574-35577 (54151)

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 32 top traders (84%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfad8b91f...bd4f75

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793235000

Traders in this Market

royalanchor02

Down — $7.1K

+$1.8K

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $6.9K

+$1.5K

Atomforge

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

$-1.1K

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down — $1.4K

+$68.38

wzbbb

Down — $1.2K

+$61.13

ply-pm0

Down — $926.9

+$8.93

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $757.39

-$6.5

gansinimen

Down — $629.46

+$36.16

tmsd-test

Down — $522.37

-$57.48

GoodFallen

Down — $486.16

-$31.18

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