Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
39
Down 79%
3 arb excluded
$40.4K
$-2.1K
Smart Money Signal
31 of 39 top traders (79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalanchor02 | Downavg 74¢ | $6.1K | $8.2K | +$2.1K | 54% 53-46 (99) |
OX oxe78sh4w98 | Downavg 66¢ | $4.0K | $6.0K | +$2.0K | 52% 351-324 (675) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 98.1¢ | $3.5K | $3.6K | +$67.13 | 74% 102203-36340 (138543) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.38 | 59% 62031-43103 (105134) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$29.19 | 56% 29266-23027 (52293) |
BO borderlocketCTR | Upavg 12.1¢ | $4.2K | — | $-4.2K | 54% 57-48 (105) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 68.6¢ | $2.4K | $1.9K | -$541.1 | 65% 3929-2114 (6043) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$20.92 | 93% 22775-1740 (24515) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 60.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.7K | +$163.45 | 56% 13561-10816 (24377) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Downavg 72.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$112.07 | 53% 1990-1797 (3787) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 59.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$114.44 | 49% 5030-5201 (10231) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 61¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$68.68 | 56% 12282-9482 (21764) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 84.6¢ | $1.1K | $900.42 | -$205.15 | 57% 7636-5856 (13492) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 64.8¢ | $768.45 | $752.03 | -$16.43 | 57% 11820-8806 (20626) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 64.7¢ | $630.6 | $713.44 | +$82.85 | 55% 7219-5914 (13133) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 74.1¢ | $798.51 | $686.25 | -$112.26 | 55% 8447-6888 (15335) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 66.7¢ | $613.61 | $623.51 | +$9.9 | 51% 16971-16536 (33507) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66.7¢ | $416.18 | $623.51 | +$207.33 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.1¢ | $197.43 | — | -$197.43 | |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Upavg 39.8¢ | $625 | — | -$625 | 35% 95-180 (275) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 70.6¢ | $713.75 | $550 | -$163.75 | 60% 12015-7895 (19910) |
BE berlinskies | Downavg 71.3¢ | $418.38 | $586.69 | +$168.31 | 58% 5777-4233 (10010) |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Upavg 39.2¢ | $2.9K | — | $-1.1K | 54% 14395-12216 (26611) |
SI sir-upalot | Downavg 65.5¢ | $298.16 | $356.95 | +$58.79 | 55% 23690-19160 (42850) |
 NIULAI4ARB<$100 | Upavg 45.5¢ | $667.47 | $248.45 | -$419.02 | 77% 9307-2743 (12050) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.6¢ | $170.43 | $248.45 | +$78.02 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.5¢ | $497.03 | — | -$497.03 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 97.2¢ | $290.43 | $272.96 | -$17.48 | 58% 37465-26708 (64173) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 69.4¢ | $222.54 | $191 | -$31.54 | 55% 44266-36741 (81007) |
Invested
$6,102.88
Value
$8.2K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
54%
53-46 (99)
Invested
$3,974
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
52%
351-324 (675)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,534.16
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$67.13
Record
74%
102203-36340 (138543)
Invested
$3,007.63
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.38
Record
59%
62031-43103 (105134)
Invested
$2,889.86
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$29.19
Record
56%
29266-23027 (52293)
Invested
$4,222.29
Value
—
PnL
$-4.2K
Record
54%
57-48 (105)
AtomforgeInvested
$2,419.79
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$541.1
Record
65%
3929-2114 (6043)
Invested
$2,071.08
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$20.92
Record
93%
22775-1740 (24515)
Invested
$1,509.61
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$163.45
Record
56%
13561-10816 (24377)
Invested
$1,411.63
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$112.07
Record
53%
1990-1797 (3787)
Invested
$1,228.1
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$114.44
Record
49%
5030-5201 (10231)
FairValueMachineInvested
$1,125.4
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$68.68
Record
56%
12282-9482 (21764)
Invested
$1,105.57
Value
$900.42
PnL
-$205.15
Record
57%
7636-5856 (13492)
Invested
$768.45
Value
$752.03
PnL
-$16.43
Record
57%
11820-8806 (20626)
Invested
$630.6
Value
$713.44
PnL
+$82.85
Record
55%
7219-5914 (13133)
machinelearnedInvested
$798.51
Value
$686.25
PnL
-$112.26
Record
55%
8447-6888 (15335)
Invested
$613.61
Value
$623.51
PnL
+$9.9
Record
51%
16971-16536 (33507)
Both legs:
Invested
$625
Value
—
PnL
-$625
Record
35%
95-180 (275)
Invested
$713.75
Value
$550
PnL
-$163.75
Record
60%
12015-7895 (19910)
Invested
$418.38
Value
$586.69
PnL
+$168.31
Record
58%
5777-4233 (10010)
Invested
$2,853.94
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
54%
14395-12216 (26611)
Invested
$298.16
Value
$356.95
PnL
+$58.79
Record
55%
23690-19160 (42850)
NIULAI4ARB<$100Invested
$667.47
Value
$248.45
PnL
-$419.02
Record
77%
9307-2743 (12050)
Both legs:
Invested
$290.43
Value
$272.96
PnL
-$17.48
Record
58%
37465-26708 (64173)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$222.54
Value
$191
PnL
-$31.54
Record
55%
44266-36741 (81007)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
royalanchor02
Down — $8.2K
oxe78sh4w98
Down — $6.0K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.6K
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
THG.
Down — $2.9K
borderlocket
CTRUp — $0
Atomforge
Down — $1.9K
hoodquant
Down — $2.1K
GoodFallen
Down — $1.7K
0xdc27...afdd9a
Down — $1.3K