Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 41%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

-$386.37

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 30 top traders (40%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares10,970

Combined PnL$-3.5K

Up18 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,129

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO borderlocketCTR	Downavg 20.2¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	54% 57-48 (105)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Upavg 49.8¢	$1.7K	$3.5K	+$1.7K	52% 351-324 (675)
AtomforgeCTR	Downavg 20.7¢	$503.75	—	-$503.75	65% 3929-2114 (6043)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 59.9¢	$702.83	$816.91	+$114.08	56% 13561-10816 (24377)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.9¢	$489.25	$816.91	+$327.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.4¢	$213.57	—	-$213.57
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 79¢	$557.7	$450	-$107.71	55% 8447-6888 (15335)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79¢	$355.5	$450	+$94.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.3¢	$202.21	—	-$202.21
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 62.5¢	$441.26	$442	+$0.74	56% 12282-9482 (21764)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.5¢	$276.33	$442	+$165.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.3¢	$164.93	—	-$164.93
TM tmsd-testCTR	Downavg 51.1¢	$2.5K	—	-$930.57	54% 14395-12216 (26611)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 73.4¢	$402.72	$304.91	-$97.46	55% 7219-5914 (13133)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.2¢	$176.77	—	-$178.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.4¢	$223.7	$304.91	+$81.22
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 44.9¢	$411.17	—	-$411.17	49% 5030-5201 (10231)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700	Upavg 39¢	$225.91	$576.26	+$351.64	63% 1755-1021 (2776)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR	Downavg 22.6¢	$130.73	—	-$130.73	53% 1990-1797 (3787)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 71.5¢	$337.45	$251.71	-$85.74	60% 12015-7895 (19910)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$157.48	—	-$157.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.5¢	$179.97	$251.71	+$71.74
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 55.3¢	$277.6	$135.06	-$142.54	57% 11820-8806 (20626)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.3¢	$185.05	—	-$185.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.5¢	$92.55	$135.06	+$42.51
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 69.7¢	$268.47	$385.29	+$116.82	48% 23103-25256 (48359)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 71¢	$202.39	$213.89	+$11.5	55% 23690-19160 (42850)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71¢	$151.89	$213.89	+$62
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$50.5	—	-$50.5
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 98¢	$147.08	$150.08	+$3	58% 60194-43949 (104143)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 79.1¢	$120.86	$130	+$9.14	51% 16971-16536 (33507)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79.1¢	$102.86	$130	+$27.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 18¢	$18	—	-$18
AS asdaefef	Upavg 91¢	$106.72	$103.47	-$3.25	66% 124813-64240 (189053)
pspspsps5CTR	Downavg 12.7¢	$100.4	—	-$100.4	46% 37948-44658 (82606)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 56.4¢	$81.8	—	-$81.8	55% 44266-36741 (81007)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$43.17	$67.3	+$24.13	66% 111604-57865 (169469)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 45.7¢	$60.27	$77.68	+$17.41	53% 26919-23984 (50903)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 46.1¢	$51.76	—	-$51.76	58% 37465-26708 (64173)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$49.5	—	-$49.5	58% 50830-36973 (87803)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Downavg 55¢	$63.29	—	-$63.29	57% 10193-7628 (17821)

borderlocketCTR

Down

Invested

$1,158.67

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

57-48 (105)

oxe78sh4w98

Invested

$1,724.46

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

52%

351-324 (675)

AtomforgeCTR

Down

Invested

$503.75

Value

—

PnL

-$503.75

Record

65%

3929-2114 (6043)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$702.83

Value

$816.91

PnL

+$114.08

Record

56%

13561-10816 (24377)

Both legs:

Up$489.2559.9¢+$327.65

Down$213.5739.4¢-$213.57

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$557.7

Value

$450

PnL

-$107.71

Record

55%

8447-6888 (15335)

Both legs:

Up$355.579¢+$94.5

Down$202.2146.3¢-$202.21

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$441.26

Value

$442

PnL

+$0.74

Record

56%

12282-9482 (21764)

Both legs:

Up$276.3362.5¢+$165.67

Down$164.9338.3¢-$164.93

tmsd-testCTR

Down

Invested

$2,495.04

Value

—

PnL

-$930.57

Record

54%

14395-12216 (26611)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$402.72

Value

$304.91

PnL

-$97.46

Record

55%

7219-5914 (13133)

Both legs:

Down$176.7745.2¢-$178.68

Up$223.773.4¢+$81.22

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$411.17

Value

—

PnL

-$411.17

Record

49%

5030-5201 (10231)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

Invested

$225.91

Value

$576.26

PnL

+$351.64

Record

63%

1755-1021 (2776)

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR

Down

Invested

$130.73

Value

—

PnL

-$130.73

Record

53%

1990-1797 (3787)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$337.45

Value

$251.71

PnL

-$85.74

Record

60%

12015-7895 (19910)

Both legs:

Down$157.4850.3¢-$157.48

Up$179.9771.5¢+$71.74

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$277.6

Value

$135.06

PnL

-$142.54

Record

57%

11820-8806 (20626)

Both legs:

Down$185.0555.3¢-$185.05

Up$92.5568.5¢+$42.51

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$268.47

Value

$385.29

PnL

+$116.82

Record

48%

23103-25256 (48359)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$202.39

Value

$213.89

PnL

+$11.5

Record

55%

23690-19160 (42850)

Both legs:

Up$151.8971¢+$62

Down$50.550.5¢-$50.5

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$147.08

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$3

Record

58%

60194-43949 (104143)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$120.86

Value

$130

PnL

+$9.14

Record

51%

16971-16536 (33507)

Both legs:

Up$102.8679.1¢+$27.14

Down$1818¢-$18

asdaefef

Invested

$106.72

Value

$103.47

PnL

-$3.25

Record

66%

124813-64240 (189053)

pspspsps5CTR

Down

Invested

$100.4

Value

—

PnL

-$100.4

Record

46%

37948-44658 (82606)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$81.8

Value

—

PnL

-$81.8

Record

55%

44266-36741 (81007)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$43.17

Value

$67.3

PnL

+$24.13

Record

66%

111604-57865 (169469)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$60.27

Value

$77.68

PnL

+$17.41

Record

53%

26919-23984 (50903)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$51.76

Value

—

PnL

-$51.76

Record

58%

37465-26708 (64173)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$49.5

Value

—

PnL

-$49.5

Record

58%

50830-36973 (87803)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$63.29

Value

—

PnL

-$63.29

Record

57%

10193-7628 (17821)

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 30 top traders (40%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x78cbc24d...9b04b2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793234400

Traders in this Market

borderlocket

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.2K

oxe78sh4w98

Up — $3.5K

Atomforge

Down — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

tmsd-test

Down — $0

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Down — $0

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

Up — $576.26

+$351.64

Trade on Polymarket