Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Up 58%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
$456.27
Smart Money Signal
16 of 28 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 74.9¢ | $362.54 | $363.96 | +$1.42 | 49% 5019-5194 (10213) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 67.7¢ | $409.16 | $307.08 | -$102.08 | 56% 13547-10813 (24360) |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Downavg 42.4¢ | $1.0K | $209.55 | -$93.02 | 54% 14387-12207 (26594) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57.4¢ | $120.22 | $209.55 | +$209.41 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.4¢ | $239.32 | — | -$302.43 | |
SP spartacray | Upavg 78.5¢ | $252.22 | $258.92 | +$6.7 | 53% 26919-23984 (50903) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 69.5¢ | $234.12 | $242.3 | +$8.18 | 60% 12004-7889 (19893) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 77.3¢ | $250.17 | $221.42 | -$28.75 | 56% 12272-9476 (21748) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 69¢ | $185.46 | $212.37 | +$26.91 | 57% 10181-7623 (17804) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 59.2¢ | $136.44 | $148 | +$11.55 | 57% 7625-5849 (13474) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 73.8¢ | $166.39 | $130.01 | -$36.38 | 64% 57632-32371 (90003) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 73.3¢ | $145.67 | $173.99 | +$28.32 | 57% 11809-8802 (20611) |
GA gansinimenCTR<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $21 | — | -$21 | 51% 16964-16535 (33499) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 70.6¢ | $67.15 | $72.92 | +$5.77 | 55% 17411-14044 (31455) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 57.9¢ | $88.44 | — | -$88.44 | 66% 111604-57865 (169469) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $66.19 | — | -$66.19 | 56% 57656-44547 (102203) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $63.69 | $53 | -$10.69 | 55% 44239-36719 (80958) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $39 | $50 | +$11 | 55% 23682-19152 (42834) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $34 | — | -$34 | 34% 18565-35570 (54135) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 88.4¢ | $40.47 | $29.13 | -$7.29 | 65% 21925-12064 (33989) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $30.95 | — | -$29 | 55% 7209-5906 (13115) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $21.54 | $16 | -$5.54 | 66% 124759-64225 (188984) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 5.6¢ | $8.57 | — | -$8.57 | 46% 37937-44627 (82564) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $11.75 | — | -$11.75 | 58% 50824-36967 (87791) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $6.9 | $18.15 | +$11.25 | 58% 37445-26686 (64131) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 42.6¢ | $34.53 | — | -$34.53 | 55% 8437-6880 (15317) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Downavg 27.1¢ | $9.78 | — | -$9.78 | 65% 3923-2114 (6037) |
Invested
$362.54
Value
$363.96
PnL
+$1.42
Record
49%
5019-5194 (10213)
Invested
$409.16
Value
$307.08
PnL
-$102.08
Record
56%
13547-10813 (24360)
Invested
$1,037.15
Value
$209.55
PnL
-$93.02
Record
54%
14387-12207 (26594)
Both legs:
Invested
$252.22
Value
$258.92
PnL
+$6.7
Record
53%
26919-23984 (50903)
Invested
$234.12
Value
$242.3
PnL
+$8.18
Record
60%
12004-7889 (19893)
FairValueMachineInvested
$250.17
Value
$221.42
PnL
-$28.75
Record
56%
12272-9476 (21748)
Invested
$185.46
Value
$212.37
PnL
+$26.91
Record
57%
10181-7623 (17804)
Invested
$136.44
Value
$148
PnL
+$11.55
Record
57%
7625-5849 (13474)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$166.39
Value
$130.01
PnL
-$36.38
Record
64%
57632-32371 (90003)
Invested
$145.67
Value
$173.99
PnL
+$28.32
Record
57%
11809-8802 (20611)
Invested
$21
Value
—
PnL
-$21
Record
51%
16964-16535 (33499)
Invested
$67.15
Value
$72.92
PnL
+$5.77
Record
55%
17411-14044 (31455)
Invested
$88.44
Value
—
PnL
-$88.44
Record
66%
111604-57865 (169469)
Invested
$66.19
Value
—
PnL
-$66.19
Record
56%
57656-44547 (102203)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$63.69
Value
$53
PnL
-$10.69
Record
55%
44239-36719 (80958)
Invested
$39
Value
$50
PnL
+$11
Record
55%
23682-19152 (42834)
Invested
$34
Value
—
PnL
-$34
Record
34%
18565-35570 (54135)
Invested
$40.47
Value
$29.13
PnL
-$7.29
Record
65%
21925-12064 (33989)
Invested
$30.95
Value
—
PnL
-$29
Record
55%
7209-5906 (13115)
Invested
$21.54
Value
$16
PnL
-$5.54
Record
66%
124759-64225 (188984)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$8.57
Value
—
PnL
-$8.57
Record
46%
37937-44627 (82564)
Invested
$11.75
Value
—
PnL
-$11.75
Record
58%
50824-36967 (87791)
Invested
$6.9
Value
$18.15
PnL
+$11.25
Record
58%
37445-26686 (64131)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$34.53
Value
—
PnL
-$34.53
Record
55%
8437-6880 (15317)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$9.78
Value
—
PnL
-$9.78
Record
65%
3923-2114 (6037)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm0
Up — $363.96
GoodFallen
Up — $307.08
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded
spartacray
Up — $258.92
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $242.3
FairValueMachine
Up — $221.42
trdyugiolkw
Up — $212.37
wzbbb
Up — $148
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $130.01
EZTRADENL2
Up — $173.99