Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.8K

Combined PnL

$5.9

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 33 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down25 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares15,692

Combined PnL+$690.62

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,516

Combined PnL-$684.72

Down — 76%Up — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	+$9	59% 62020-43089 (105109)
BoneOhio	Downavg 98.7¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$38.82	74% 102194-36335 (138529)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 35.5¢	$625	—	-$625	34% 91-173 (264)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$486.82	$491.74	+$4.92	93% 22744-1740 (24484)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 85.3¢	$309.74	$341.44	+$31.7	57% 7625-5849 (13474)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 81.4¢	$274.15	$321.85	+$47.7	55% 17411-14044 (31455)
machinelearned	Downavg 82.8¢	$299.04	$361.37	+$62.33	55% 8437-6880 (15317)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 88.3¢	$164.73	$183.57	+$18.84	55% 7209-5906 (13115)
TM tmsd-test	Downavg 62.1¢	$445.29	$165.28	+$47.98	54% 14387-12207 (26594)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 77.6¢	$146.4	$153.5	+$7.1	49% 5019-5194 (10213)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 51.5¢	$151.92	$295	+$143.08	58% 37445-26686 (64131)
BO bosona	Downavg 73¢	$109.51	$138.23	+$28.72	55% 49291-39546 (88837)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 91¢	$126.73	$137.79	+$11.06	66% 124759-64225 (188984)
SP spartacray	Downavg 91.1¢	$125.64	$134.83	+$9.19	53% 26919-23984 (50903)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 92¢	$123.33	$134	+$10.67	55% 44239-36719 (80958)
LI Little-big	Downavg 54.5¢	$114.52	$210	+$95.48	34% 18565-35570 (54135)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 93¢	$248.46	$99.25	+$10.17	65% 124408-66548 (190956)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 90.2¢	$76.63	$72.17	-$4.46	64% 57632-32371 (90003)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 55.1¢	$67.83	$89.45	+$21.62	56% 13547-10813 (24360)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.1¢	$49.28	$89.45	+$40.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.2¢	$18.54	—	-$18.54
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 90.1¢	$59.65	$62.83	+$3.18	46% 37937-44627 (82564)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 28.4¢	$40.69	—	-$40.69	57% 11809-8802 (20611)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 94.3¢	$58.47	$62.03	+$3.56	52% 89542-84009 (173551)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 80.1¢	$56.99	$45.61	+$3.45	65% 21925-12064 (33989)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$45.97	$88.17	+$42.2	59% 6554-4533 (11087)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 65¢	$30.64	$47.14	+$16.5	55% 23682-19152 (42834)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$8,995.03

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$9

Record

59%

62020-43089 (105109)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$3,010.46

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$38.82

Record

74%

102194-36335 (138529)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$625

Value

—

PnL

-$625

Record

34%

91-173 (264)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$486.82

Value

$491.74

PnL

+$4.92

Record

93%

22744-1740 (24484)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$309.74

Value

$341.44

PnL

+$31.7

Record

57%

7625-5849 (13474)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$274.15

Value

$321.85

PnL

+$47.7

Record

55%

17411-14044 (31455)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$299.04

Value

$361.37

PnL

+$62.33

Record

55%

8437-6880 (15317)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$164.73

Value

$183.57

PnL

+$18.84

Record

55%

7209-5906 (13115)

tmsd-test

Down

Invested

$445.29

Value

$165.28

PnL

+$47.98

Record

54%

14387-12207 (26594)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$146.4

Value

$153.5

PnL

+$7.1

Record

49%

5019-5194 (10213)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$151.92

Value

$295

PnL

+$143.08

Record

58%

37445-26686 (64131)

bosona

Down

Invested

$109.51

Value

$138.23

PnL

+$28.72

Record

55%

49291-39546 (88837)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$126.73

Value

$137.79

PnL

+$11.06

Record

66%

124759-64225 (188984)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$125.64

Value

$134.83

PnL

+$9.19

Record

53%

26919-23984 (50903)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$123.33

Value

$134

PnL

+$10.67

Record

55%

44239-36719 (80958)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$114.52

Value

$210

PnL

+$95.48

Record

34%

18565-35570 (54135)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$248.46

Value

$99.25

PnL

+$10.17

Record

65%

124408-66548 (190956)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$76.63

Value

$72.17

PnL

-$4.46

Record

64%

57632-32371 (90003)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$67.83

Value

$89.45

PnL

+$21.62

Record

56%

13547-10813 (24360)

Both legs:

Down$49.2855.1¢+$40.17

Up$18.5441.2¢-$18.54

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$59.65

Value

$62.83

PnL

+$3.18

Record

46%

37937-44627 (82564)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$40.69

Value

—

PnL

-$40.69

Record

57%

11809-8802 (20611)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$58.47

Value

$62.03

PnL

+$3.56

Record

52%

89542-84009 (173551)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$56.99

Value

$45.61

PnL

+$3.45

Record

65%

21925-12064 (33989)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$45.97

Value

$88.17

PnL

+$42.2

Record

59%

6554-4533 (11087)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$30.64

Value

$47.14

PnL

+$16.5

Record

55%

23682-19152 (42834)

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 33 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x648daac9...db9ff9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793233200

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $9.0K

+$9

BoneOhio

Down — $3.0K

+$38.82

Imgonnadoit

CTR

Up — $0

-$625

hoodquant

Down — $491.74

+$4.92

wzbbb

Down — $341.44

+$31.7

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $321.85

+$47.7

machinelearned

Down — $361.37

+$62.33

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $183.57

+$18.84

tmsd-test

Down — $165.28

+$47.98

ply-pm0

Down — $153.5

+$7.1

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