Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Down 81%
1 arb excluded
$4.1K
-$259.09
Smart Money Signal
23 of 28 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 93.8¢ | $836.79 | $878.08 | +$41.28 | 57% 7625-5849 (13474) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97¢ | $666.56 | $687.18 | +$20.62 | 93% 22744-1740 (24484) |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Upavg 30¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | 34% 91-173 (264) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 89.1¢ | $433.64 | $371.42 | -$32.52 | 64% 57632-32371 (90003) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 93.5¢ | $326.85 | $349.42 | +$22.57 | 55% 44239-36719 (80958) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 96.9¢ | $334.22 | $344.39 | +$10.17 | 46% 37937-44627 (82564) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 92.1¢ | $302.99 | $307 | +$4 | 49% 5019-5194 (10213) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 82.4¢ | $246.94 | $287.03 | +$40.09 | 55% 7209-5906 (13115) |
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 90.5¢ | $542.15 | $265.78 | -$55.3 | 54% 14387-12207 (26594) |
SE seeeeeeb | Downavg 89¢ | $120.15 | $135 | +$14.85 | 51% 675-654 (1329) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 71.9¢ | $107.24 | $81 | -$26.24 | 55% 8437-6880 (15317) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.9¢ | $58.2 | $81 | +$22.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.3¢ | $49.04 | — | -$49.04 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 75.7¢ | $74.9 | $98.98 | +$24.09 | 57% 11809-8802 (20611) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $86.1 | $62 | -$24.1 | 55% 49291-39546 (88837) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $43.2 | $30 | -$13.2 | 56% 13547-10813 (24360) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $32.13 | $33.33 | +$1.2 | 53% 26919-23984 (50903) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $31.99 | $30 | -$1.99 | 56% 12272-9476 (21748) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76.9¢ | $27.26 | $35.46 | +$8.19 | 65% 21925-12064 (33989) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100 | Upavg 17.6¢ | $56.1 | — | -$56.1 | 60% 12004-7889 (19893) |
 Bossgirl<$100 | Downavg 86.3¢ | $20.71 | $24 | +$3.29 | 54% 4601-3920 (8521) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 92.5¢ | $19.59 | $21.17 | +$1.58 | 61% 94094-59183 (153277) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 20.4¢ | $30.7 | — | -$30.7 | 55% 17411-14044 (31455) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 77.1¢ | $15.47 | $20.07 | +$4.6 | 66% 124759-64225 (188984) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $12.69 | $13.36 | +$0.67 | 48% 23100-25234 (48334) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $12.51 | $25.01 | +$12.51 | 58% 50824-36967 (87791) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $10.5 | — | -$10.5 | 55% 23682-19152 (42834) |
Invested
$836.79
Value
$878.08
PnL
+$41.28
Record
57%
7625-5849 (13474)
Invested
$666.56
Value
$687.18
PnL
+$20.62
Record
93%
22744-1740 (24484)
Invested
$250
Value
—
PnL
-$250
Record
34%
91-173 (264)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$433.64
Value
$371.42
PnL
-$32.52
Record
64%
57632-32371 (90003)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$326.85
Value
$349.42
PnL
+$22.57
Record
55%
44239-36719 (80958)
pspspsps5Invested
$334.22
Value
$344.39
PnL
+$10.17
Record
46%
37937-44627 (82564)
Invested
$302.99
Value
$307
PnL
+$4
Record
49%
5019-5194 (10213)
Invested
$246.94
Value
$287.03
PnL
+$40.09
Record
55%
7209-5906 (13115)
Invested
$542.15
Value
$265.78
PnL
-$55.3
Record
54%
14387-12207 (26594)
Invested
$120.15
Value
$135
PnL
+$14.85
Record
51%
675-654 (1329)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$107.24
Value
$81
PnL
-$26.24
Record
55%
8437-6880 (15317)
Both legs:
Invested
$74.9
Value
$98.98
PnL
+$24.09
Record
57%
11809-8802 (20611)
Invested
$86.1
Value
$62
PnL
-$24.1
Record
55%
49291-39546 (88837)
Invested
$43.2
Value
$30
PnL
-$13.2
Record
56%
13547-10813 (24360)
Invested
$32.13
Value
$33.33
PnL
+$1.2
Record
53%
26919-23984 (50903)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$31.99
Value
$30
PnL
-$1.99
Record
56%
12272-9476 (21748)
Invested
$27.26
Value
$35.46
PnL
+$8.19
Record
65%
21925-12064 (33989)
Invested
$56.1
Value
—
PnL
-$56.1
Record
60%
12004-7889 (19893)
Bossgirl<$100Invested
$20.71
Value
$24
PnL
+$3.29
Record
54%
4601-3920 (8521)
Invested
$19.59
Value
$21.17
PnL
+$1.58
Record
61%
94094-59183 (153277)
Invested
$30.7
Value
—
PnL
-$30.7
Record
55%
17411-14044 (31455)
Invested
$15.47
Value
$20.07
PnL
+$4.6
Record
66%
124759-64225 (188984)
Invested
$12.69
Value
$13.36
PnL
+$0.67
Record
48%
23100-25234 (48334)
Invested
$12.51
Value
$25.01
PnL
+$12.51
Record
58%
50824-36967 (87791)
Invested
$10.5
Value
—
PnL
-$10.5
Record
55%
23682-19152 (42834)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
wzbbb
Down — $878.08
hoodquant
Down — $687.18
Imgonnadoit
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $371.42
MayorMamdani
Down — $349.42
pspspsps5
Down — $344.39
ply-pm0
Down — $307
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $287.03
tmsd-test
Down — $265.78
seeeeeeb
Down — $135