Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 44%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$394.31

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 19 top traders (42%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$619.74

Total Shares620

Combined PnL+$85.91

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,032

Combined PnL-$480.22

Down — 42%Up — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 57.5¢	$718.89	$751.96	+$33.07	55% 7209-5906 (13115)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.5¢	$432.01	$751.96	+$319.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 42¢	$286.88	—	-$286.88
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$613.3	$702.94	+$89.64	56% 13547-10813 (24360)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.5¢	$425.49	$702.94	+$277.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.7¢	$187.81	—	-$187.81
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 61.6¢	$331.93	$356.08	+$24.15	49% 5019-5194 (10213)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.6¢	$219.47	$356.08	+$136.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.2¢	$112.46	—	-$112.46
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 71.6¢	$339.68	$322.85	-$12.98	60% 12004-7889 (19893)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.6¢	$231.06	$322.85	+$91.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$106.3	—	-$104.77
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$185.32	$194.67	+$9.35	57% 7625-5849 (13474)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$98.25	$194.67	+$96.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.3¢	$87.07	—	-$87.07
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$203.68	$185.78	-$17.89	56% 12272-9476 (21748)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.7¢	$120.19	$185.78	+$65.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.5¢	$83.49	—	-$83.49
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 68.7¢	$277.43	$120.98	-$156.45	57% 11809-8802 (20611)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.7¢	$205.39	—	-$205.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.5¢	$72.04	$120.98	+$48.94
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 63.4¢	$238.78	$100	-$138.78	55% 8437-6880 (15317)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.4¢	$163.53	—	-$163.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.3¢	$75.25	$100	+$24.75
MayorMamdani	Downavg 77.1¢	$196.31	$161.53	-$34.78	55% 44239-36719 (80958)
SP spartacray	Downavg 54.9¢	$91.1	$140.19	+$49.09	53% 26919-23984 (50903)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$86.74	—	-$86.74	58% 37445-26686 (64131)
UpandDownSyndrome	Downavg 93.4¢	$128.88	$137.94	+$9.06	63% 51338-30220 (81558)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 39¢	$62.29	$79.99	+$17.7	58% 60182-43943 (104125)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29¢	$23.18	$79.99	+$56.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 39¢	$39.11	—	-$39.11
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 76.8¢	$112.47	$75.72	-$36.75	55% 23682-19152 (42834)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.8¢	$58.18	$75.72	+$17.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$54.29	—	-$54.29
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR	Upavg 66.2¢	$143.45	—	-$143.45	55% 17411-14044 (31455)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 87¢	$74.28	$73	-$1.28	77% 9303-2743 (12046)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87¢	$63.51	$73	+$9.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 13.7¢	$10.77	—	-$10.77
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 40.1¢	$64.76	$49.02	-$15.74	55% 49291-39546 (88837)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.1¢	$45.15	—	-$45.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 40¢	$19.61	$49.02	+$29.41
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$45.72	—	-$45.72	63% 1754-1021 (2775)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 19.7¢	$26.56	—	-$26.56	64% 57632-32371 (90003)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$64.03	$55	+$4.16	65% 21925-12064 (33989)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 24.5¢	$29.4	—	-$29.4	57% 10181-7623 (17804)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$42.16	—	-$42.16	74% 102194-36335 (138529)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$29.02	—	-$29.02	46% 37937-44627 (82564)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR<$100	Upavg 31.2¢	$31.06	—	-$31.06	51% 869-844 (1713)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 54.4¢	$29.77	—	-$29.77	59% 6554-4533 (11087)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$718.89

Value

$751.96

PnL

+$33.07

Record

55%

7209-5906 (13115)

Both legs:

Down$432.0157.5¢+$319.95

Up$286.8842¢-$286.88

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$613.3

Value

$702.94

PnL

+$89.64

Record

56%

13547-10813 (24360)

Both legs:

Down$425.4960.5¢+$277.45

Up$187.8139.7¢-$187.81

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$331.93

Value

$356.08

PnL

+$24.15

Record

49%

5019-5194 (10213)

Both legs:

Down$219.4761.6¢+$136.61

Up$112.4634.2¢-$112.46

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$339.68

Value

$322.85

PnL

-$12.98

Record

60%

12004-7889 (19893)

Both legs:

Down$231.0671.6¢+$91.8

Up$106.346.5¢-$104.77

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$185.32

Value

$194.67

PnL

+$9.35

Record

57%

7625-5849 (13474)

Both legs:

Down$98.2550.5¢+$96.42

Up$87.0749.3¢-$87.07

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$203.68

Value

$185.78

PnL

-$17.89

Record

56%

12272-9476 (21748)

Both legs:

Down$120.1964.7¢+$65.6

Up$83.4944.5¢-$83.49

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$277.43

Value

$120.98

PnL

-$156.45

Record

57%

11809-8802 (20611)

Both legs:

Up$205.3968.7¢-$205.39

Down$72.0459.5¢+$48.94

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$238.78

Value

$100

PnL

-$138.78

Record

55%

8437-6880 (15317)

Both legs:

Up$163.5363.4¢-$163.53

Down$75.2575.3¢+$24.75

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$196.31

Value

$161.53

PnL

-$34.78

Record

55%

44239-36719 (80958)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$91.1

Value

$140.19

PnL

+$49.09

Record

53%

26919-23984 (50903)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$86.74

Value

—

PnL

-$86.74

Record

58%

37445-26686 (64131)

UpandDownSyndrome

Down

Invested

$128.88

Value

$137.94

PnL

+$9.06

Record

63%

51338-30220 (81558)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$62.29

Value

$79.99

PnL

+$17.7

Record

58%

60182-43943 (104125)

Both legs:

Invested

$112.47

Value

$75.72

PnL

-$36.75

Record

55%

23682-19152 (42834)

Both legs:

Down$58.1876.8¢+$17.54

Up$54.2948¢-$54.29

Kathod-Shi-14CTR

Invested

$143.45

Value

—

PnL

-$143.45

Record

55%

17411-14044 (31455)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$74.28

Value

$73

PnL

-$1.28

Record

77%

9303-2743 (12046)

Both legs:

Down$63.5187¢+$9.49

Up$10.7713.7¢-$10.77

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$64.76

Value

$49.02

PnL

-$15.74

Record

55%

49291-39546 (88837)

Both legs:

Up$45.1540.1¢-$45.15

Down$19.6140¢+$29.41

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR<$100

Invested

$45.72

Value

—

PnL

-$45.72

Record

63%

1754-1021 (2775)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$26.56

Value

—

PnL

-$26.56

Record

64%

57632-32371 (90003)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$64.03

Value

$55

PnL

+$4.16

Record

65%

21925-12064 (33989)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

—

PnL

-$29.4

Record

57%

10181-7623 (17804)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$42.16

Value

—

PnL

-$42.16

Record

74%

102194-36335 (138529)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$29.02

Value

—

PnL

-$29.02

Record

46%

37937-44627 (82564)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR<$100

Invested

$31.06

Value

—

PnL

-$31.06

Record

51%

869-844 (1713)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$29.77

Value

—

PnL

-$29.77

Record

59%

6554-4533 (11087)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 19 top traders (42%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa7f2a93e...a35291

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793232600

Traders in this Market

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

MayorMamdani

Down — $161.53

-$34.78

spartacray

Down — $140.19

+$49.09

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