Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$491.61

Smart Money Signal

11 of 22 top traders (50%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$980.19

Total Shares980

Combined PnL+$182.19

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,192

Combined PnL-$673.8

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 60.2¢	$821.03	$803.65	-$17.38	56% 13547-10813 (24360)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.2¢	$483.89	$803.65	+$319.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.9¢	$337.14	—	-$337.14
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 52.5¢	$337.8	$360.8	+$23	49% 5019-5194 (10213)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.5¢	$189.48	$360.8	+$171.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.9¢	$148.32	—	-$148.32
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 63.8¢	$297.22	$369.49	+$72.26	57% 11809-8802 (20611)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 85.6¢	$350.08	$284.98	-$65.09	57% 7625-5849 (13474)
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.6¢	$244.01	$284.98	+$40.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.9¢	$106.07	—	-$106.07
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 50.7¢	$162.76	—	-$162.76	58% 37445-26686 (64131)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 74.3¢	$247.31	$224.85	-$22.46	55% 7209-5906 (13115)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.3¢	$166.98	$224.85	+$57.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.6¢	$80.33	—	-$80.33
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 74¢	$248.89	$185	-$63.89	56% 12272-9476 (21748)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74¢	$136.95	$185	+$48.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.1¢	$111.94	—	-$111.94
13 13897651CTR	Downavg 56.2¢	$211.14	—	-$211.14	59% 6554-4533 (11087)
SP spartacray	Upavg 72.9¢	$142.11	$184.47	+$42.36	53% 26919-23984 (50903)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 70.2¢	$217.92	$90	-$127.92	64% 57632-32371 (90003)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.2¢	$141.72	—	-$141.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.7¢	$76.2	$90	+$13.8
machinelearned	Upavg 73.7¢	$112.75	$153.01	+$40.26	55% 8437-6880 (15317)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Downavg 70¢	$128.66	—	-$128.66	48% 23100-25234 (48334)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 71.9¢	$122.94	$147.04	+$24.1	60% 12004-7889 (19893)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.9¢	$105.71	$147.04	+$41.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.9¢	$17.23	—	-$17.23
Atomforge	Upavg 92¢	$122.5	$133.14	+$10.64	65% 3923-2114 (6037)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 75.5¢	$74.02	—	-$74.02	55% 44239-36719 (80958)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 49.5¢	$52.23	$65.46	+$13.22	55% 23682-19152 (42834)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.1¢	$24.96	$65.46	+$40.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$27.28	—	-$27.28
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Downavg 65¢	$132.97	$27.01	-$105.97	55% 17411-14044 (31455)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65¢	$119.22	—	-$119.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.9¢	$13.75	$27.01	+$13.26
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 68.7¢	$43.9	$60	+$16.1	65% 21925-12064 (33989)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 78¢	$40	—	-$40	65% 124408-66548 (190956)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Downavg 4¢	$2.4	—	-$2.4	57% 10181-7623 (17804)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 73.7¢	$24.66	$26.93	+$2.27	66% 111604-57865 (169469)
Bossgirl<$100	Upavg 80¢	$18.4	$23	+$4.6	54% 4601-3920 (8521)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 29¢	$13.93	—	-$13.93	46% 37937-44627 (82564)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 85.8¢	$21.74	$14.5	-$7.24	55% 49291-39546 (88837)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 76¢	$14.1	—	-$14.1	66% 124759-64225 (188984)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$821.03

Value

$803.65

PnL

-$17.38

Record

56%

13547-10813 (24360)

Both legs:

Up$483.8960.2¢+$319.76

Down$337.1444.9¢-$337.14

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$337.8

Value

$360.8

PnL

+$23

Record

49%

5019-5194 (10213)

Both legs:

Up$189.4852.5¢+$171.32

Down$148.3238.9¢-$148.32

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$297.22

Value

$369.49

PnL

+$72.26

Record

57%

11809-8802 (20611)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$350.08

Value

$284.98

PnL

-$65.09

Record

57%

7625-5849 (13474)

Both legs:

Up$244.0185.6¢+$40.97

Down$106.0736.9¢-$106.07

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$162.76

Value

—

PnL

-$162.76

Record

58%

37445-26686 (64131)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$247.31

Value

$224.85

PnL

-$22.46

Record

55%

7209-5906 (13115)

Both legs:

Up$166.9874.3¢+$57.87

Down$80.3342.6¢-$80.33

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$248.89

Value

$185

PnL

-$63.89

Record

56%

12272-9476 (21748)

Both legs:

Up$136.9574¢+$48.05

Down$111.9447.1¢-$111.94

13897651CTR

Down

Invested

$211.14

Value

—

PnL

-$211.14

Record

59%

6554-4533 (11087)

spartacray

Invested

$142.11

Value

$184.47

PnL

+$42.36

Record

53%

26919-23984 (50903)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$217.92

Value

$90

PnL

-$127.92

Record

64%

57632-32371 (90003)

Both legs:

Down$141.7270.2¢-$141.72

Up$76.284.7¢+$13.8

machinelearned

Invested

$112.75

Value

$153.01

PnL

+$40.26

Record

55%

8437-6880 (15317)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Down

Invested

$128.66

Value

—

PnL

-$128.66

Record

48%

23100-25234 (48334)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$122.94

Value

$147.04

PnL

+$24.1

Record

60%

12004-7889 (19893)

Both legs:

Up$105.7171.9¢+$41.33

Down$17.2320.9¢-$17.23

Atomforge

Invested

$122.5

Value

$133.14

PnL

+$10.64

Record

65%

3923-2114 (6037)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$74.02

Value

—

PnL

-$74.02

Record

55%

44239-36719 (80958)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$52.23

Value

$65.46

PnL

+$13.22

Record

55%

23682-19152 (42834)

Both legs:

Up$24.9638.1¢+$40.5

Down$27.2849.5¢-$27.28

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$132.97

Value

$27.01

PnL

-$105.97

Record

55%

17411-14044 (31455)

Both legs:

Down$119.2265¢-$119.22

Up$13.7550.9¢+$13.26

aaa221<$100

Invested

$43.9

Value

$60

PnL

+$16.1

Record

65%

21925-12064 (33989)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40

Value

—

PnL

-$40

Record

65%

124408-66548 (190956)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.4

Value

—

PnL

-$2.4

Record

57%

10181-7623 (17804)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$24.66

Value

$26.93

PnL

+$2.27

Record

66%

111604-57865 (169469)

Bossgirl<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$23

PnL

+$4.6

Record

54%

4601-3920 (8521)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.93

Value

—

PnL

-$13.93

Record

46%

37937-44627 (82564)

bosona<$100

Invested

$21.74

Value

$14.5

PnL

-$7.24

Record

55%

49291-39546 (88837)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.1

Value

—

PnL

-$14.1

Record

66%

124759-64225 (188984)

Smart Money Signal

11 of 22 top traders (50%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa00af5bf...42676c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793232300

Traders in this Market

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Up — $369.49

+$72.26

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$65.09

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$162.76

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Down — $0

spartacray

Up — $184.47

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded