Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 45%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$276.04

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 21 top traders (48%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,765

Combined PnL+$597.34

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares883

Combined PnL-$321.3

Down — 48%Up — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Up	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$8.21	56% 3626-2814 (6440)
└ Down leg	Down	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$917.81
└ Up leg	Up	—	—	-$926.02
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 58.1¢	$507.1	$495.55	-$11.55	56% 13547-10813 (24360)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.1¢	$288	$495.55	+$207.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.4¢	$219.1	—	-$219.1
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 85¢	$463.8	$430.38	-$33.42	57% 7625-5849 (13474)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 54.9¢	$374.01	$367.61	-$6.4	49% 5019-5194 (10213)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.9¢	$201.82	$367.61	+$165.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 39¢	$172.19	—	-$172.19
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 78.7¢	$442.32	$393.76	-$48.57	57% 11809-8802 (20611)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 54.6¢	$265.66	$279.16	+$13.5	59% 6554-4533 (11087)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.6¢	$152.43	$279.16	+$126.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.4¢	$113.23	—	-$113.23
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 73.5¢	$213	$250.13	+$40.72	60% 12004-7889 (19893)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 53.6¢	$197.44	$209.99	+$12.54	56% 12272-9476 (21748)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.6¢	$112.48	$209.99	+$97.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.8¢	$84.96	—	-$84.96
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 54.2¢	$201.24	$202.16	+$0.91	64% 57632-32371 (90003)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.2¢	$109.48	$202.16	+$92.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$91.76	—	-$91.76
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 49¢	$107.55	$219.49	+$111.94	58% 37445-26686 (64131)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 35.5¢	$81.78	$124	+$42.22	55% 49291-39546 (88837)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.5¢	$44.02	$124	+$79.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 51¢	$37.76	—	-$37.76
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 60.1¢	$180.4	$299.99	+$119.59	48% 23100-25234 (48334)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 79.6¢	$80.6	$101.27	+$20.67	57% 10181-7623 (17804)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 51.1¢	$115.24	$48.77	-$66.47	53% 26919-23984 (50903)
└ Down leg	Downavg 88.9¢	$43.37	$48.77	+$5.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$71.87	—	-$71.87
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 25.6¢	$65.69	—	-$65.69	55% 8437-6880 (15317)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 24.4¢	$45.62	—	-$45.62	55% 17411-14044 (31455)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$28.2	—	-$28.2	65% 124408-66548 (190956)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 22.7¢	$33.41	—	-$33.41	46% 37937-44627 (82564)
BossgirlCTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$23.92	—	-$23.92	54% 4601-3920 (8521)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 69.2¢	$24.49	$35.41	+$10.92	52% 89542-84009 (173551)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 64.5¢	$27.08	—	-$27.08	55% 44239-36719 (80958)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 91.3¢	$31.81	$26.9	-$3.61	61% 94094-59183 (153277)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 16¢	$10.2	—	-$10.2	51% 19852-18984 (38836)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 65.6¢	$37.51	—	-$37.51	66% 111604-57865 (169469)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 78¢	$34.33	—	-$34.33	55% 7209-5906 (13115)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$4,268.88

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$8.21

Record

56%

3626-2814 (6440)

Both legs:

Down$4,268.88—+$917.81

Up——-$926.02

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$507.1

Value

$495.55

PnL

-$11.55

Record

56%

13547-10813 (24360)

Both legs:

Down$28858.1¢+$207.55

Up$219.144.4¢-$219.1

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$463.8

Value

$430.38

PnL

-$33.42

Record

57%

7625-5849 (13474)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$374.01

Value

$367.61

PnL

-$6.4

Record

49%

5019-5194 (10213)

Both legs:

Down$201.8254.9¢+$165.79

Up$172.1939¢-$172.19

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$442.32

Value

$393.76

PnL

-$48.57

Record

57%

11809-8802 (20611)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$265.66

Value

$279.16

PnL

+$13.5

Record

59%

6554-4533 (11087)

Both legs:

Down$152.4354.6¢+$126.73

Up$113.2345.4¢-$113.23

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$213

Value

$250.13

PnL

+$40.72

Record

60%

12004-7889 (19893)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$197.44

Value

$209.99

PnL

+$12.54

Record

56%

12272-9476 (21748)

Both legs:

Down$112.4853.6¢+$97.5

Up$84.9633.8¢-$84.96

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$201.24

Value

$202.16

PnL

+$0.91

Record

64%

57632-32371 (90003)

Both legs:

Down$109.4854.2¢+$92.67

Up$91.7640.3¢-$91.76

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$107.55

Value

$219.49

PnL

+$111.94

Record

58%

37445-26686 (64131)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$81.78

Value

$124

PnL

+$42.22

Record

55%

49291-39546 (88837)

Both legs:

Down$44.0235.5¢+$79.98

Up$37.7651¢-$37.76

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$180.4

Value

$299.99

PnL

+$119.59

Record

48%

23100-25234 (48334)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$80.6

Value

$101.27

PnL

+$20.67

Record

57%

10181-7623 (17804)

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$115.24

Value

$48.77

PnL

-$66.47

Record

53%

26919-23984 (50903)

Both legs:

Down$43.3788.9¢+$5.4

Up$71.8751.1¢-$71.87

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$65.69

Value

—

PnL

-$65.69

Record

55%

8437-6880 (15317)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$45.62

Value

—

PnL

-$45.62

Record

55%

17411-14044 (31455)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$28.2

Value

—

PnL

-$28.2

Record

65%

124408-66548 (190956)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$33.41

Value

—

PnL

-$33.41

Record

46%

37937-44627 (82564)

BossgirlCTR<$100

Invested

$23.92

Value

—

PnL

-$23.92

Record

54%

4601-3920 (8521)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$24.49

Value

$35.41

PnL

+$10.92

Record

52%

89542-84009 (173551)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$27.08

Value

—

PnL

-$27.08

Record

55%

44239-36719 (80958)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$31.81

Value

$26.9

PnL

-$3.61

Record

61%

94094-59183 (153277)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

—

PnL

-$10.2

Record

51%

19852-18984 (38836)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$37.51

Value

—

PnL

-$37.51

Record

66%

111604-57865 (169469)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$34.33

Value

—

PnL

-$34.33

Record

55%

7209-5906 (13115)

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 21 top traders (48%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x69017ed4...2ac6db

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793232000

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Down — $430.38

-$33.42

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$6.4

EZTRADENL2

Down — $393.76

-$48.57

13897651

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$13.5

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $250.13

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $219.49

+$111.94

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