Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 24 top traders (54%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,109

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Up11 traders

Total Value$877.18

Total Shares877

Combined PnL+$216.7

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Downavg 35.6¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K	34% 91-173 (264)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 70.4¢	$304.58	$328.67	+$24.09	49% 5019-5194 (10213)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.4¢	$231.34	$328.67	+$97.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.1¢	$73.24	—	-$73.24
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 65.2¢	$296.22	$360.39	+$64.16	56% 13547-10813 (24360)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.2¢	$235.09	$360.39	+$125.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.5¢	$61.14	—	-$61.14
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 81¢	$288.98	$303.05	+$14.07	57% 7625-5849 (13474)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81¢	$245.45	$303.05	+$57.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.2¢	$43.53	—	-$43.53
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 69.8¢	$157.85	$159.46	+$31.32	64% 57632-32371 (90003)
└ Down leg	Downavg 8.3¢	$25.58	—	-$25.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.8¢	$111.32	$159.46	+$56.9
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 46¢	$196.67	—	-$196.67	58% 37445-26686 (64131)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 64.7¢	$166.14	$159.68	-$6.46	56% 12272-9476 (21748)
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.4¢	$62.86	—	-$62.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.7¢	$103.28	$159.68	+$56.4
13 13897651	Upavg 62.8¢	$214.39	$333.56	+$119.17	59% 6554-4533 (11087)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$2.69	—	-$2.69	46% 37937-44627 (82564)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 35.6¢	$89.63	—	-$89.63	62% 43621-26580 (70201)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 92.6¢	$126.87	$100.5	-$26.37	55% 7209-5906 (13115)
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.9¢	$33.84	—	-$33.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 92.6¢	$93.03	$100.5	+$7.47
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 65.9¢	$105.47	$129.63	+$27.61	60% 12004-7889 (19893)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.9¢	$85.45	$129.63	+$44.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 19¢	$16.72	—	-$16.72
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 68¢	$108.72	$115.77	+$7.05	66% 111604-57865 (169469)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68¢	$78.72	$115.77	+$37.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 40¢	$30	—	-$30
machinelearned	Upavg 72¢	$83.87	$100	+$16.13	55% 8437-6880 (15317)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 66¢	$78.46	$118.88	+$40.42	48% 23100-25234 (48334)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 82.2¢	$82.99	$100.95	+$17.96	57% 11809-8802 (20611)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 44.2¢	$38.93	—	-$38.93	34% 18565-35570 (54135)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 94.8¢	$62.42	$53.14	-$9.28	66% 124759-64225 (188984)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 95.4¢	$63.88	$56	-$7.85	61% 94094-59183 (153277)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$35.69	—	-$35.69	51% 16964-16535 (33499)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Downavg 99¢	$59.4	—	-$59.4	51% 19852-18984 (38836)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 64¢	$32	$50	+$18	55% 23682-19152 (42834)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 46.1¢	$22.95	—	-$22.95	58% 50824-36967 (87791)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 71.4¢	$37.21	$37.98	+$14.75	65% 21925-12064 (33989)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 31¢	$11.8	—	-$11.8	74% 102194-36335 (138529)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Down

Invested

$1,000

Value

—

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

34%

91-173 (264)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$304.58

Value

$328.67

PnL

+$24.09

Record

49%

5019-5194 (10213)

Both legs:

Up$231.3470.4¢+$97.33

Down$73.2423.1¢-$73.24

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$296.22

Value

$360.39

PnL

+$64.16

Record

56%

13547-10813 (24360)

Both legs:

Up$235.0965.2¢+$125.3

Down$61.1428.5¢-$61.14

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$288.98

Value

$303.05

PnL

+$14.07

Record

57%

7625-5849 (13474)

Both legs:

Up$245.4581¢+$57.6

Down$43.5320.2¢-$43.53

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$157.85

Value

$159.46

PnL

+$31.32

Record

64%

57632-32371 (90003)

Both legs:

Down$25.588.3¢-$25.58

Up$111.3269.8¢+$56.9

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$196.67

Value

—

PnL

-$196.67

Record

58%

37445-26686 (64131)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$166.14

Value

$159.68

PnL

-$6.46

Record

56%

12272-9476 (21748)

Both legs:

Down$62.8628.4¢-$62.86

Up$103.2864.7¢+$56.4

13897651

Invested

$214.39

Value

$333.56

PnL

+$119.17

Record

59%

6554-4533 (11087)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.69

Value

—

PnL

-$2.69

Record

46%

37937-44627 (82564)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$89.63

Value

—

PnL

-$89.63

Record

62%

43621-26580 (70201)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$126.87

Value

$100.5

PnL

-$26.37

Record

55%

7209-5906 (13115)

Both legs:

Down$33.8422.9¢-$33.84

Up$93.0392.6¢+$7.47

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$105.47

Value

$129.63

PnL

+$27.61

Record

60%

12004-7889 (19893)

Both legs:

Up$85.4565.9¢+$44.33

Down$16.7219¢-$16.72

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$108.72

Value

$115.77

PnL

+$7.05

Record

66%

111604-57865 (169469)

Both legs:

Up$78.7268¢+$37.05

Down$3040¢-$30

machinelearned

Invested

$83.87

Value

$100

PnL

+$16.13

Record

55%

8437-6880 (15317)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$78.46

Value

$118.88

PnL

+$40.42

Record

48%

23100-25234 (48334)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$82.99

Value

$100.95

PnL

+$17.96

Record

57%

11809-8802 (20611)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$38.93

Value

—

PnL

-$38.93

Record

34%

18565-35570 (54135)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$62.42

Value

$53.14

PnL

-$9.28

Record

66%

124759-64225 (188984)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$63.88

Value

$56

PnL

-$7.85

Record

61%

94094-59183 (153277)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.69

Value

—

PnL

-$35.69

Record

51%

16964-16535 (33499)

devonpollCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$59.4

Value

—

PnL

-$59.4

Record

51%

19852-18984 (38836)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$32

Value

$50

PnL

+$18

Record

55%

23682-19152 (42834)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.95

Value

—

PnL

-$22.95

Record

58%

50824-36967 (87791)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$37.21

Value

$37.98

PnL

+$14.75

Record

65%

21925-12064 (33989)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.8

Value

—

PnL

-$11.8

Record

74%

102194-36335 (138529)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 24 top traders (54%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xac460218...bdd0ad

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793228700

Traders in this Market

Imgonnadoit

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Up — $333.56

pspspsps5

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0