Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$152.67

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 25 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares10,827

Combined PnL+$214.44

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares905

Combined PnL-$61.78

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$5.01	59% 62012-43078 (105090)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 94.3¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$72.93	57% 7613-5842 (13455)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$22.46	93% 22702-1736 (24438)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 92.4¢	$836.46	$823.3	+$16.54	64% 57632-32369 (90001)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 95.8¢	$550.18	$570.91	+$20.72	55% 44215-36703 (80918)
LI Little-bigARB<$100	Upavg 55.9¢	$332.86	$221.13	-$111.73	34% 18548-35564 (54112)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.9¢	$185.11	—	-$185.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.8¢	$147.75	$221.13	+$73.38
pspspsps5	Downavg 98¢	$245.25	$235.92	-$9.34	46% 37929-44598 (82527)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 79.6¢	$182.35	$229.11	+$46.75	57% 11799-8791 (20590)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 46¢	$147.08	$194	+$46.92	58% 37423-26662 (64085)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46¢	$89.24	$194	+$104.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$57.84	—	-$57.84
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 83.6¢	$138.88	$147.78	+$8.91	49% 5009-5185 (10194)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 80.1¢	$101.92	$99.17	-$2.75	56% 13533-10808 (24341)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 82.5¢	$70.14	$82.92	+$12.78	55% 7197-5897 (13094)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 84.2¢	$46.77	$54.22	+$7.45	66% 124717-64207 (188924)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 82¢	$47.41	$49.99	+$2.58	55% 8430-6868 (15298)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 95.3¢	$63.06	$49.56	-$13.51	60% 11995-7877 (19872)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 86.1¢	$36.25	$40.96	+$4.71	61% 94062-59155 (153217)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 82¢	$41	$50	+$9	55% 23669-19145 (42814)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 58¢	$37.86	—	-$37.86	59% 6540-4526 (11066)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 91.7¢	$49.96	$31.11	+$4.26	64% 21886-12047 (33933)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 87.9¢	$29.41	$33.45	+$4.04	52% 89516-83965 (173481)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 93.3¢	$8.08	$8.66	+$0.58	63% 51325-30204 (81529)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$6.3	—	-$6.3	56% 12260-9471 (21731)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 79¢	$4.94	$6.25	+$1.31	66% 111604-57865 (169469)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 1.6¢	$9.87	—	-$9.87	48% 23092-25227 (48319)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$1.8	—	-$1.8	51% 19837-18971 (38808)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$5,009.02

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$5.01

Record

59%

62012-43078 (105090)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,811.07

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$72.93

Record

57%

7613-5842 (13455)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,393.53

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$22.46

Record

93%

22702-1736 (24438)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$836.46

Value

$823.3

PnL

+$16.54

Record

64%

57632-32369 (90001)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$550.18

Value

$570.91

PnL

+$20.72

Record

55%

44215-36703 (80918)

Little-bigARB<$100

Invested

$332.86

Value

$221.13

PnL

-$111.73

Record

34%

18548-35564 (54112)

Both legs:

Up$185.1155.9¢-$185.11

Down$147.7566.8¢+$73.38

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$245.25

Value

$235.92

PnL

-$9.34

Record

46%

37929-44598 (82527)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$182.35

Value

$229.11

PnL

+$46.75

Record

57%

11799-8791 (20590)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$147.08

Value

$194

PnL

+$46.92

Record

58%

37423-26662 (64085)

Both legs:

Down$89.2446¢+$104.76

Up$57.8453¢-$57.84

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$138.88

Value

$147.78

PnL

+$8.91

Record

49%

5009-5185 (10194)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$101.92

Value

$99.17

PnL

-$2.75

Record

56%

13533-10808 (24341)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$70.14

Value

$82.92

PnL

+$12.78

Record

55%

7197-5897 (13094)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$46.77

Value

$54.22

PnL

+$7.45

Record

66%

124717-64207 (188924)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$47.41

Value

$49.99

PnL

+$2.58

Record

55%

8430-6868 (15298)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$63.06

Value

$49.56

PnL

-$13.51

Record

60%

11995-7877 (19872)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$36.25

Value

$40.96

PnL

+$4.71

Record

61%

94062-59155 (153217)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$41

Value

$50

PnL

+$9

Record

55%

23669-19145 (42814)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$37.86

Value

—

PnL

-$37.86

Record

59%

6540-4526 (11066)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$49.96

Value

$31.11

PnL

+$4.26

Record

64%

21886-12047 (33933)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$29.41

Value

$33.45

PnL

+$4.04

Record

52%

89516-83965 (173481)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$8.08

Value

$8.66

PnL

+$0.58

Record

63%

51325-30204 (81529)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

—

PnL

-$6.3

Record

56%

12260-9471 (21731)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$4.94

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$1.31

Record

66%

111604-57865 (169469)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$9.87

Value

—

PnL

-$9.87

Record

48%

23092-25227 (48319)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

—

PnL

-$1.8

Record

51%

19837-18971 (38808)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 25 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xbec7238c...688293

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793228400

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $5.0K

+$5.01

wzbbb

Down — $1.9K

+$72.93

hoodquant

Down — $1.4K

+$22.46

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $823.3

+$16.54

MayorMamdani

Down — $570.91

+$20.72

Little-big

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$111.73

pspspsps5

Down — $235.92

-$9.34

EZTRADENL2

Down — $229.11

+$46.75

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$46.92

ply-pm0

Down — $147.78

+$8.91

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