Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 62%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$495.51

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 22 top traders (64%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,964

Combined PnL-$688.45

Down14 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,002

Combined PnL+$192.93

Up — 36%Down — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 41.6¢	$625	—	-$625	34% 91-173 (264)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 58.1¢	$500.95	$552	+$51.05	56% 13533-10808 (24341)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.1¢	$320.64	$552	+$231.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.2¢	$180.3	—	-$180.3
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 72¢	$509.28	$511.04	+$1.76	49% 5009-5185 (10194)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$443.94	$453	+$9.06	93% 22702-1736 (24438)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 52.3¢	$387.42	$441.42	+$53.99	56% 12260-9471 (21731)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.3¢	$230.89	$441.42	+$210.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.6¢	$156.53	—	-$156.53
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$184.68	$237.62	+$52.93	57% 11799-8791 (20590)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$131.94	$237.62	+$105.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 20¢	$52.75	—	-$52.75
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 73.3¢	$256.17	$246.96	-$9.21	55% 23669-19145 (42814)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.3¢	$181.11	$246.96	+$65.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.3¢	$75.06	—	-$75.06
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 65.3¢	$216.78	$214	-$2.78	57% 7613-5842 (13455)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 62.3¢	$144.21	$196.92	+$53.64	60% 11995-7877 (19872)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 78.7¢	$161.68	$159.56	-$2.12	55% 7197-5897 (13094)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 35¢	$112.59	$67.06	-$45.53	55% 8430-6868 (15298)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35¢	$70	—	-$70
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.5¢	$42.59	$67.06	+$24.47
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 96.1¢	$94.12	$97.97	+$3.85	63% 51325-30204 (81529)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$55.94	$78.88	+$22.94	66% 111604-57865 (169469)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 50.8¢	$42.43	$83.59	+$41.16	46% 37929-44598 (82527)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$43.95	$60	+$16.05	64% 21886-12047 (33933)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 50¢	$28.71	$30	+$1.29	64% 57632-32369 (90001)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 70¢	$35.03	$50.04	+$15.01	58% 60164-43933 (104097)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 51¢	$25.52	$50.03	+$24.51	58% 50817-36958 (87775)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$13.93	—	-$13.93	55% 44215-36703 (80918)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$12.55	—	-$12.55	65% 124383-66536 (190919)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$10.3	—	-$10.3	66% 124717-64207 (188924)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.55	$17.1	+$8.55	65% 3921-2112 (6033)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 4.6¢	$8.18	—	-$8.18	52% 89516-83965 (173481)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 6.6¢	$13.89	—	-$13.89	77% 9298-2742 (12040)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$3.4	—	-$3.4	58% 37423-26662 (64085)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$625

Value

—

PnL

-$625

Record

34%

91-173 (264)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500.95

Value

$552

PnL

+$51.05

Record

56%

13533-10808 (24341)

Both legs:

Down$320.6458.1¢+$231.35

Up$180.337.2¢-$180.3

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$509.28

Value

$511.04

PnL

+$1.76

Record

49%

5009-5185 (10194)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$443.94

Value

$453

PnL

+$9.06

Record

93%

22702-1736 (24438)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$387.42

Value

$441.42

PnL

+$53.99

Record

56%

12260-9471 (21731)

Both legs:

Down$230.8952.3¢+$210.53

Up$156.5335.6¢-$156.53

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$184.68

Value

$237.62

PnL

+$52.93

Record

57%

11799-8791 (20590)

Both legs:

Down$131.9455.5¢+$105.68

Up$52.7520¢-$52.75

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$256.17

Value

$246.96

PnL

-$9.21

Record

55%

23669-19145 (42814)

Both legs:

Down$181.1173.3¢+$65.85

Up$75.0638.3¢-$75.06

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$216.78

Value

$214

PnL

-$2.78

Record

57%

7613-5842 (13455)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$144.21

Value

$196.92

PnL

+$53.64

Record

60%

11995-7877 (19872)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$161.68

Value

$159.56

PnL

-$2.12

Record

55%

7197-5897 (13094)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$112.59

Value

$67.06

PnL

-$45.53

Record

55%

8430-6868 (15298)

Both legs:

Up$7035¢-$70

Down$42.5963.5¢+$24.47

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$94.12

Value

$97.97

PnL

+$3.85

Record

63%

51325-30204 (81529)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$55.94

Value

$78.88

PnL

+$22.94

Record

66%

111604-57865 (169469)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$42.43

Value

$83.59

PnL

+$41.16

Record

46%

37929-44598 (82527)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$43.95

Value

$60

PnL

+$16.05

Record

64%

21886-12047 (33933)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$28.71

Value

$30

PnL

+$1.29

Record

64%

57632-32369 (90001)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$35.03

Value

$50.04

PnL

+$15.01

Record

58%

60164-43933 (104097)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$25.52

Value

$50.03

PnL

+$24.51

Record

58%

50817-36958 (87775)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$13.93

Value

—

PnL

-$13.93

Record

55%

44215-36703 (80918)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$12.55

Value

—

PnL

-$12.55

Record

65%

124383-66536 (190919)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$10.3

Value

—

PnL

-$10.3

Record

66%

124717-64207 (188924)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$8.55

Value

$17.1

PnL

+$8.55

Record

65%

3921-2112 (6033)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$8.18

Value

—

PnL

-$8.18

Record

52%

89516-83965 (173481)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$13.89

Value

—

PnL

-$13.89

Record

77%

9298-2742 (12040)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

—

PnL

-$3.4

Record

58%

37423-26662 (64085)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 22 top traders (64%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xed09334e...386b18

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793227800

Traders in this Market

Imgonnadoit

Up — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Down — $511.04

+$1.76

hoodquant

Down — $453

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

sir-upalot

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Down — $214

-$2.78

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $196.92

+$53.64

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $159.56

-$2.12

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