Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$282.25

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 23 top traders (65%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,845

Combined PnL+$502.08

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,276

Combined PnL-$219.83

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 88.8¢	$853.88	$851	-$2.88	57% 7613-5842 (13455)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$428.84	$540	+$111.16	49% 5009-5185 (10194)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$299.64	$540	+$240.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.3¢	$129.2	—	-$129.2
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 62.4¢	$384.85	$520.96	+$136.11	64% 57632-32369 (90001)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 58.6¢	$404.36	$394	-$10.36	56% 13533-10808 (24341)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.6¢	$230.94	$394	+$163.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.9¢	$173.41	—	-$173.41
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 73.2¢	$296.42	$350.33	+$53.91	60% 11995-7877 (19872)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 50.4¢	$189.63	$344.3	+$154.67	57% 11799-8791 (20590)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 64.6¢	$240.91	$323.52	+$82.61	54% 10483-8946 (19429)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 62.1¢	$224.14	$228.06	+$3.92	56% 12260-9471 (21731)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.1¢	$141.74	$228.06	+$86.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.6¢	$82.4	—	-$82.4
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 39.7¢	$875	—	+$53.68	34% 91-173 (264)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 43.9¢	$201.16	$147.94	-$53.21	55% 23669-19145 (42814)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.1¢	$96.31	$147.94	+$51.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.9¢	$104.85	—	-$104.85
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 65¢	$161.38	$150	-$11.38	55% 8430-6868 (15298)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65¢	$97.5	$150	+$52.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.8¢	$63.88	—	-$63.88
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 48.7¢	$173.7	$92.53	-$81.17	55% 7197-5897 (13094)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.2¢	$52.02	$92.53	+$40.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.7¢	$121.68	—	-$121.68
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 65¢	$118.25	$103	-$6.01	65% 124383-66536 (190919)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 65.3¢	$92.3	$97.99	+$5.69	66% 124717-64207 (188924)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Upavg 69.6¢	$106.63	—	-$106.63	58% 60164-43933 (104097)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Downavg 65¢	$50.55	$40	-$10.55	57% 10169-7617 (17786)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65¢	$26	$40	+$14
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.3¢	$24.55	—	-$24.55
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 63.7¢	$40.11	$63	+$22.89	55% 44215-36703 (80918)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 55.1¢	$52.22	—	-$52.22	34% 18548-35564 (54112)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 38.9¢	$24.22	$62.29	+$38.06	58% 37423-26662 (64085)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 43.6¢	$65.81	—	-$65.81	46% 37929-44598 (82527)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 54.8¢	$40.5	—	-$40.5	59% 6540-4526 (11066)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 60.6¢	$24.53	$29.29	+$4.76	52% 89516-83965 (173481)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 59.5¢	$30.61	$33.8	+$6.05	61% 94062-59155 (153217)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 63.9¢	$74.73	$20	-$11.36	64% 21886-12047 (33933)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 55¢	$16.49	$29.98	+$13.49	50% 7697-7703 (15400)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$853.88

Value

$851

PnL

-$2.88

Record

57%

7613-5842 (13455)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$428.84

Value

$540

PnL

+$111.16

Record

49%

5009-5185 (10194)

Both legs:

Down$299.6455.5¢+$240.36

Up$129.227.3¢-$129.2

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$384.85

Value

$520.96

PnL

+$136.11

Record

64%

57632-32369 (90001)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$404.36

Value

$394

PnL

-$10.36

Record

56%

13533-10808 (24341)

Both legs:

Down$230.9458.6¢+$163.06

Up$173.4134.9¢-$173.41

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$296.42

Value

$350.33

PnL

+$53.91

Record

60%

11995-7877 (19872)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$189.63

Value

$344.3

PnL

+$154.67

Record

57%

11799-8791 (20590)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$240.91

Value

$323.52

PnL

+$82.61

Record

54%

10483-8946 (19429)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$224.14

Value

$228.06

PnL

+$3.92

Record

56%

12260-9471 (21731)

Both legs:

Down$141.7462.1¢+$86.32

Up$82.431.6¢-$82.4

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$875

Value

—

PnL

+$53.68

Record

34%

91-173 (264)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$201.16

Value

$147.94

PnL

-$53.21

Record

55%

23669-19145 (42814)

Both legs:

Down$96.3165.1¢+$51.63

Up$104.8543.9¢-$104.85

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$161.38

Value

$150

PnL

-$11.38

Record

55%

8430-6868 (15298)

Both legs:

Down$97.565¢+$52.5

Up$63.8845.8¢-$63.88

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$173.7

Value

$92.53

PnL

-$81.17

Record

55%

7197-5897 (13094)

Both legs:

Down$52.0256.2¢+$40.51

Up$121.6848.7¢-$121.68

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$118.25

Value

$103

PnL

-$6.01

Record

65%

124383-66536 (190919)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$92.3

Value

$97.99

PnL

+$5.69

Record

66%

124717-64207 (188924)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Invested

$106.63

Value

—

PnL

-$106.63

Record

58%

60164-43933 (104097)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$50.55

Value

$40

PnL

-$10.55

Record

57%

10169-7617 (17786)

Both legs:

Invested

$40.11

Value

$63

PnL

+$22.89

Record

55%

44215-36703 (80918)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$52.22

Value

—

PnL

-$52.22

Record

34%

18548-35564 (54112)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$24.22

Value

$62.29

PnL

+$38.06

Record

58%

37423-26662 (64085)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$65.81

Value

—

PnL

-$65.81

Record

46%

37929-44598 (82527)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$40.5

Value

—

PnL

-$40.5

Record

59%

6540-4526 (11066)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$24.53

Value

$29.29

PnL

+$4.76

Record

52%

89516-83965 (173481)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$30.61

Value

$33.8

PnL

+$6.05

Record

61%

94062-59155 (153217)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$74.73

Value

$20

PnL

-$11.36

Record

64%

21886-12047 (33933)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$16.49

Value

$29.98

PnL

+$13.49

Record

50%

7697-7703 (15400)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 23 top traders (65%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x044fc7a7...89ee73

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793227200

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Down — $851

-$2.88

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$111.16

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $520.96

+$136.11

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$10.36

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $350.33

+$53.91

EZTRADENL2

Down — $344.3

+$154.67

thesidehustle

Down — $323.52

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

Imgonnadoit

Up — $0

sir-upalot

Arbitrage — excluded