Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET
Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Up 86%
3 arb excluded
$26.9K
-$309.91
Smart Money Signal
25 of 29 top traders (86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $8.3K | $8.3K | +$8.32 | 59% 62012-43078 (105090) |
AR arcsine-barrister | Up | $4.6K | $4.6K | +$0.33 | 56% 3625-2814 (6439) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 74% 102188-36332 (138520) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$29.98 | 56% 29258-23027 (52285) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $2.7K | $2.8K | +$27.69 | 93% 22702-1736 (24438) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 98.9¢ | $869.58 | $879.5 | +$9.92 | 55% 44215-36703 (80918) |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Downavg 38.4¢ | $625 | — | -$625 | 34% 91-173 (264) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 94.7¢ | $541 | $554.81 | +$13.81 | 57% 7613-5842 (13455) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 98.5¢ | $525.92 | $527.98 | +$2.06 | 46% 37929-44598 (82527) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 98.7¢ | $573.55 | $510 | -$63.55 | 64% 57632-32369 (90001) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 82¢ | $300.22 | $364 | +$63.78 | 54% 10483-8946 (19429) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 84.9¢ | $378.64 | $446 | +$67.36 | 55% 8430-6868 (15298) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 67.3¢ | $213.57 | $199.29 | -$14.28 | 56% 13533-10808 (24341) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.3¢ | $134.02 | $199.29 | +$65.27 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.8¢ | $79.55 | — | -$79.55 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 84.7¢ | $183.46 | $175.26 | -$8.2 | 49% 5009-5185 (10194) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 81.8¢ | $154.44 | $176 | +$21.56 | 55% 7197-5897 (13094) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 66.7¢ | $133.1 | $120 | -$13.09 | 56% 12260-9471 (21731) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.7¢ | $80.1 | $120 | +$39.91 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53¢ | $53 | — | -$53 | |
SI sir-upalot | Upavg 74.3¢ | $111.5 | $150 | +$38.5 | 55% 23669-19145 (42814) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Upavg 64.6¢ | $85.67 | $108.49 | +$22.82 | 60% 11995-7877 (19872) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.6¢ | $70.06 | $108.49 | +$38.43 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 12.4¢ | $15.62 | — | -$15.62 | |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 82¢ | $82 | $100 | +$18 | 51% 16957-16529 (33486) |
13 13897651 | Upavg 50.6¢ | $64.93 | $100.99 | +$36.06 | 59% 6540-4526 (11066) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Downavg 35.4¢ | $71.91 | — | -$71.91 | 57% 11799-8791 (20590) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $45 | $60 | +$15 | 51% 19837-18971 (38808) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 94.1¢ | $52.57 | $53.5 | +$0.93 | 52% 89516-83965 (173481) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 90.5¢ | $48.81 | $53.93 | +$5.12 | 66% 124717-64207 (188924) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 93.5¢ | $46.03 | $49.2 | +$3.17 | 61% 94062-59155 (153217) |
Invested
$8,307.2
Value
$8.3K
PnL
+$8.32
Record
59%
62012-43078 (105090)
Invested
$4,560.72
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$0.33
Record
56%
3625-2814 (6439)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,465.2
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
74%
102188-36332 (138520)
Invested
$2,968.02
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$29.98
Record
56%
29258-23027 (52285)
Invested
$2,741.31
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$27.69
Record
93%
22702-1736 (24438)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$869.58
Value
$879.5
PnL
+$9.92
Record
55%
44215-36703 (80918)
Invested
$625
Value
—
PnL
-$625
Record
34%
91-173 (264)
Invested
$541
Value
$554.81
PnL
+$13.81
Record
57%
7613-5842 (13455)
pspspsps5Invested
$525.92
Value
$527.98
PnL
+$2.06
Record
46%
37929-44598 (82527)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$573.55
Value
$510
PnL
-$63.55
Record
64%
57632-32369 (90001)
Invested
$300.22
Value
$364
PnL
+$63.78
Record
54%
10483-8946 (19429)
machinelearnedInvested
$378.64
Value
$446
PnL
+$67.36
Record
55%
8430-6868 (15298)
Invested
$213.57
Value
$199.29
PnL
-$14.28
Record
56%
13533-10808 (24341)
Both legs:
Invested
$183.46
Value
$175.26
PnL
-$8.2
Record
49%
5009-5185 (10194)
Invested
$154.44
Value
$176
PnL
+$21.56
Record
55%
7197-5897 (13094)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$133.1
Value
$120
PnL
-$13.09
Record
56%
12260-9471 (21731)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$38.5
Record
55%
23669-19145 (42814)
Invested
$85.67
Value
$108.49
PnL
+$22.82
Record
60%
11995-7877 (19872)
Both legs:
Invested
$82
Value
$100
PnL
+$18
Record
51%
16957-16529 (33486)
Invested
$64.93
Value
$100.99
PnL
+$36.06
Record
59%
6540-4526 (11066)
Invested
$71.91
Value
—
PnL
-$71.91
Record
57%
11799-8791 (20590)
Invested
$45
Value
$60
PnL
+$15
Record
51%
19837-18971 (38808)
Invested
$52.57
Value
$53.5
PnL
+$0.93
Record
52%
89516-83965 (173481)
Invested
$48.81
Value
$53.93
PnL
+$5.12
Record
66%
124717-64207 (188924)
Invested
$46.03
Value
$49.2
PnL
+$3.17
Record
61%
94062-59155 (153217)
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