Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.2K

Combined PnL

$397

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 26 top traders (77%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares13,785

Combined PnL+$493.34

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares626

Combined PnL-$96.34

Down — 77%Up — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$8.6K	$8.6K	+$8.64	59% 62012-43078 (105090)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$16.19	74% 102188-36332 (138520)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 93.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$39.37	57% 7613-5842 (13455)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$648.45	$655	+$6.55	93% 22702-1736 (24438)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 86¢	$518.74	$521.67	+$2.93	49% 5009-5185 (10194)
└ Down leg	Downavg 86¢	$448.53	$521.67	+$73.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.8¢	$70.22	—	-$70.22
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 99.7¢	$540.79	$446.24	-$94.55	64% 57632-32369 (90001)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 74.6¢	$350.13	$419	+$68.87	56% 13533-10808 (24341)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 30.3¢	$291.92	$200.14	-$91.78	56% 14167-11114 (25281)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.3¢	$168.67	—	-$168.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.6¢	$123.25	$200.14	+$76.89
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 70.5¢	$155.94	$221.08	+$65.15	57% 11799-8791 (20590)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 75.9¢	$160.06	$168	+$7.94	56% 12260-9471 (21731)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.9¢	$127.46	$168	+$40.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.3¢	$32.6	—	-$32.6
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 74.7¢	$145.98	$111.47	-$30.61	55% 7197-5897 (13094)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.7¢	$83.28	$111.47	+$28.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.3¢	$58.96	—	-$58.96
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 46.2¢	$137.21	$201.64	+$64.43	59% 6540-4526 (11066)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.2¢	$93.07	$201.64	+$108.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 57¢	$44.14	—	-$44.14
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 90.4¢	$156.5	$154.79	-$1.7	60% 11995-7877 (19872)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 78.3¢	$118.57	$151.41	+$32.84	62% 43616-26566 (70182)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 81.6¢	$102.09	$100.1	-$1.99	54% 10483-8946 (19429)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.6¢	$81.69	$100.1	+$18.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 17¢	$20.4	—	-$20.4
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 23.3¢	$70.86	—	-$70.86	55% 17378-14015 (31393)
LI Little-bigARB<$100	Downavg 66¢	$95	$103.79	+$8.79	34% 18548-35564 (54112)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66¢	$68.5	$103.79	+$35.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$26.5	—	-$26.5
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 78¢	$78.23	$100.29	+$22.06	56% 57642-44528 (102170)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 74.7¢	$53.01	$70.98	+$17.98	55% 44215-36703 (80918)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 77.1¢	$47.4	$61.52	+$14.12	65% 124383-66536 (190919)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 83.7¢	$46.73	$55.86	+$9.13	66% 124717-64207 (188924)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 86.6¢	$48.2	$55.65	+$7.45	61% 94062-59155 (153217)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 91.4¢	$37.32	$40.85	+$3.53	52% 89516-83965 (173481)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 75.7¢	$36.57	$25	-$11.57	55% 8430-6868 (15298)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 23¢	$10.96	—	-$10.96	64% 39757-22720 (62477)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$8,628.67

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$8.64

Record

59%

62012-43078 (105090)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$1,528.89

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$16.19

Record

74%

102188-36332 (138520)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,072.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$39.37

Record

57%

7613-5842 (13455)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$648.45

Value

$655

PnL

+$6.55

Record

93%

22702-1736 (24438)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$518.74

Value

$521.67

PnL

+$2.93

Record

49%

5009-5185 (10194)

Both legs:

Down$448.5386¢+$73.14

Up$70.2211.8¢-$70.22

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$540.79

Value

$446.24

PnL

-$94.55

Record

64%

57632-32369 (90001)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$350.13

Value

$419

PnL

+$68.87

Record

56%

13533-10808 (24341)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$291.92

Value

$200.14

PnL

-$91.78

Record

56%

14167-11114 (25281)

Both legs:

Up$168.6730.3¢-$168.67

Down$123.2561.6¢+$76.89

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$155.94

Value

$221.08

PnL

+$65.15

Record

57%

11799-8791 (20590)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$160.06

Value

$168

PnL

+$7.94

Record

56%

12260-9471 (21731)

Both legs:

Down$127.4675.9¢+$40.54

Up$32.624.3¢-$32.6

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$145.98

Value

$111.47

PnL

-$30.61

Record

55%

7197-5897 (13094)

Both legs:

Down$83.2874.7¢+$28.35

Up$58.9622.3¢-$58.96

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$137.21

Value

$201.64

PnL

+$64.43

Record

59%

6540-4526 (11066)

Both legs:

Down$93.0746.2¢+$108.57

Up$44.1457¢-$44.14

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$156.5

Value

$154.79

PnL

-$1.7

Record

60%

11995-7877 (19872)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$118.57

Value

$151.41

PnL

+$32.84

Record

62%

43616-26566 (70182)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$102.09

Value

$100.1

PnL

-$1.99

Record

54%

10483-8946 (19429)

Both legs:

Down$81.6981.6¢+$18.41

Up$20.417¢-$20.4

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$70.86

Value

—

PnL

-$70.86

Record

55%

17378-14015 (31393)

Little-bigARB<$100

Down

Invested

$95

Value

$103.79

PnL

+$8.79

Record

34%

18548-35564 (54112)

Both legs:

Down$68.566¢+$35.29

Up$26.553¢-$26.5

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$78.23

Value

$100.29

PnL

+$22.06

Record

56%

57642-44528 (102170)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$53.01

Value

$70.98

PnL

+$17.98

Record

55%

44215-36703 (80918)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$47.4

Value

$61.52

PnL

+$14.12

Record

65%

124383-66536 (190919)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$46.73

Value

$55.86

PnL

+$9.13

Record

66%

124717-64207 (188924)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$48.2

Value

$55.65

PnL

+$7.45

Record

61%

94062-59155 (153217)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$37.32

Value

$40.85

PnL

+$3.53

Record

52%

89516-83965 (173481)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$36.57

Value

$25

PnL

-$11.57

Record

55%

8430-6868 (15298)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$10.96

Value

—

PnL

-$10.96

Record

64%

39757-22720 (62477)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 26 top traders (77%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9ab8f444...bb6347

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793224800

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $8.6K

+$8.64

BoneOhio

Down — $1.5K

+$16.19

wzbbb

Down — $1.1K

+$39.37

hoodquant

Down — $655

+$6.55

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$2.93

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $446.24

-$94.55

GoodFallen

Down — $419

+$68.87

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$91.78

EZTRADENL2

Down — $221.08

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded