Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 68%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$425.63

Smart Money Signal

16 of 23 top traders (70%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,918

Combined PnL+$573.96

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,732

Combined PnL-$999.59

Up — 70%Down — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 63.3¢	$906	$742.92	-$163.09	56% 14167-11114 (25281)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.3¢	$470.32	$742.92	+$272.59
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.4¢	$435.68	—	-$435.68
NIULAI4	Upavg 60.8¢	$496.19	$602.28	+$106.09	77% 9298-2742 (12040)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 58.5¢	$500.04	$431.53	-$68.51	49% 5009-5185 (10194)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.5¢	$252.36	$431.53	+$179.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$247.68	—	-$247.68
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 57.7¢	$421.93	$475.27	+$53.34	56% 13533-10808 (24341)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.7¢	$274.09	$475.27	+$201.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.1¢	$147.84	—	-$147.84
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Downavg 43.3¢	$500	—	-$500	34% 91-173 (264)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 51.1¢	$417.74	$501.57	+$83.83	56% 12260-9471 (21731)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.7¢	$161.67	—	-$161.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$256.08	$501.57	+$245.49
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 65.1¢	$275.77	$337.64	+$61.87	57% 11799-8791 (20590)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 57.7¢	$355.58	$374.17	+$18.59	55% 7197-5897 (13094)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.7¢	$215.85	$374.17	+$158.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.1¢	$139.73	—	-$139.73
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 40.4¢	$361.72	$225.27	-$136.44	57% 7613-5842 (13455)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.4¢	$192.92	—	-$192.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.9¢	$168.8	$225.27	+$56.47
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 29.5¢	$98.77	$236.7	+$149.69	64% 57632-32369 (90001)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.5¢	$69.86	$236.7	+$175.06
└ Down leg	Downavg 7.3¢	$25.37	—	-$25.37
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 84.1¢	$293.28	$217.86	-$75.42	60% 11995-7877 (19872)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.1¢	$183.19	$217.86	+$34.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.9¢	$110.09	—	-$110.09
SI sir-upalotCTR	Downavg 50.6¢	$156.68	—	-$156.68	55% 23669-19145 (42814)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR	Downavg 71.7¢	$149	—	-$132.27	65% 124383-66536 (190919)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$107.01	$121.46	+$14.45	59% 6540-4526 (11066)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.5¢	$73.52	$121.46	+$47.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$33.49	—	-$33.49
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 99¢	$129.69	$131	+$1.31	58% 37423-26662 (64085)
ohioismCTR	Downavg 75.9¢	$114.14	—	-$114.14	64% 39757-22720 (62477)
TH THG.<$100	Upavg 99¢	$69.01	$69.71	+$0.7	56% 29258-23027 (52285)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 25¢	$25.47	$101.88	+$76.41	48% 23092-25227 (48319)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 65¢	$59.57	—	-$59.57	66% 124717-64207 (188924)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 33.3¢	$59.99	$179.97	+$119.98	54% 10483-8946 (19429)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$55.44	$56	+$0.56	93% 22702-1736 (24438)
machinelearned	Upavg 48.8¢	$79.66	$163.27	+$83.61	55% 8430-6868 (15298)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$35.03	—	-$35.03	34% 18548-35564 (54112)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 61.5¢	$41.51	$39.2	-$2.32	64% 21886-12047 (33933)
pspspsps5	Upavg 31.8¢	$37.57	$118.16	+$80.59	46% 37929-44598 (82527)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$906

Value

$742.92

PnL

-$163.09

Record

56%

14167-11114 (25281)

Both legs:

Up$470.3263.3¢+$272.59

Down$435.6852.4¢-$435.68

NIULAI4

Invested

$496.19

Value

$602.28

PnL

+$106.09

Record

77%

9298-2742 (12040)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$500.04

Value

$431.53

PnL

-$68.51

Record

49%

5009-5185 (10194)

Both legs:

Up$252.3658.5¢+$179.18

Down$247.6849.9¢-$247.68

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$421.93

Value

$475.27

PnL

+$53.34

Record

56%

13533-10808 (24341)

Both legs:

Up$274.0957.7¢+$201.19

Down$147.8444.1¢-$147.84

ImgonnadoitCTR

Down

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

34%

91-173 (264)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$417.74

Value

$501.57

PnL

+$83.83

Record

56%

12260-9471 (21731)

Both legs:

Down$161.6743.7¢-$161.67

Up$256.0851.1¢+$245.49

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$275.77

Value

$337.64

PnL

+$61.87

Record

57%

11799-8791 (20590)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$355.58

Value

$374.17

PnL

+$18.59

Record

55%

7197-5897 (13094)

Both legs:

Up$215.8557.7¢+$158.32

Down$139.7363.1¢-$139.73

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$361.72

Value

$225.27

PnL

-$136.44

Record

57%

7613-5842 (13455)

Both legs:

Down$192.9240.4¢-$192.92

Up$168.874.9¢+$56.47

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$98.77

Value

$236.7

PnL

+$149.69

Record

64%

57632-32369 (90001)

Both legs:

Up$69.8629.5¢+$175.06

Down$25.377.3¢-$25.37

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$293.28

Value

$217.86

PnL

-$75.42

Record

60%

11995-7877 (19872)

Both legs:

Up$183.1984.1¢+$34.67

Down$110.0954.9¢-$110.09

sir-upalotCTR

Down

Invested

$156.68

Value

—

PnL

-$156.68

Record

55%

23669-19145 (42814)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR

Down

Invested

$149

Value

—

PnL

-$132.27

Record

65%

124383-66536 (190919)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$107.01

Value

$121.46

PnL

+$14.45

Record

59%

6540-4526 (11066)

Both legs:

Up$73.5260.5¢+$47.94

Down$33.4945¢-$33.49

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$129.69

Value

$131

PnL

+$1.31

Record

58%

37423-26662 (64085)

ohioismCTR

Down

Invested

$114.14

Value

—

PnL

-$114.14

Record

64%

39757-22720 (62477)

THG.<$100

Invested

$69.01

Value

$69.71

PnL

+$0.7

Record

56%

29258-23027 (52285)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$25.47

Value

$101.88

PnL

+$76.41

Record

48%

23092-25227 (48319)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$59.57

Value

—

PnL

-$59.57

Record

66%

124717-64207 (188924)

thesidehustle

Invested

$59.99

Value

$179.97

PnL

+$119.98

Record

54%

10483-8946 (19429)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$55.44

Value

$56

PnL

+$0.56

Record

93%

22702-1736 (24438)

machinelearned

Invested

$79.66

Value

$163.27

PnL

+$83.61

Record

55%

8430-6868 (15298)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.03

Value

—

PnL

-$35.03

Record

34%

18548-35564 (54112)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$41.51

Value

$39.2

PnL

-$2.32

Record

64%

21886-12047 (33933)

pspspsps5

Invested

$37.57

Value

$118.16

PnL

+$80.59

Record

46%

37929-44598 (82527)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 23 top traders (70%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x82f0042b...a04211

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793224500

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$163.09

NIULAI4

Up — $602.28

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Imgonnadoit

Down — $0

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Up — $337.64

+$61.87

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded