Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET

Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

16 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

-$367.77

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,070

Combined PnL-$28.08

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares903

Combined PnL-$339.69

Up — 59%Down — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 54¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$77.7	56% 14167-11114 (25281)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54¢	$871.78	—	-$871.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.3¢	$581.42	$1.4K	+$794.08
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$688	$846.71	+$158.7	49% 5009-5185 (10194)
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.3¢	$234.13	—	-$234.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.6¢	$453.88	$846.71	+$392.83
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.01	74% 102188-36332 (138520)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 76.4¢	$1.4K	$982.49	-$378.53	57% 7613-5842 (13455)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.5¢	$610.17	—	-$610.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.4¢	$750.85	$982.49	+$231.64
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 49.1¢	$640.11	$542.57	-$97.54	56% 13533-10808 (24341)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$331.04	—	-$331.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 57¢	$309.07	$542.57	+$233.49
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Upavg 51.6¢	$1.4K	$916.68	+$174.27	54% 14375-12192 (26567)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.3¢	$144.94	—	-$78.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.6¢	$473.09	$916.68	+$253.12
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 55.1¢	$522.04	$611.09	+$89.05	57% 11799-8791 (20590)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47¢	$185.28	—	-$185.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.1¢	$336.76	$611.09	+$274.33
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 77.6¢	$531.96	$395.98	-$135.98	54% 10483-8946 (19429)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Downavg 31.1¢	$186.55	—	-$186.55	48% 23092-25227 (48319)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 62.6¢	$324.7	$276.45	-$48.25	56% 12260-9471 (21731)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.2¢	$151.66	—	-$151.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.6¢	$173.04	$276.45	+$103.41
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 50.9¢	$414	$701.59	+$287.6	77% 9298-2742 (12040)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.9¢	$356.89	$701.59	+$344.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.2¢	$57.1	—	-$57.1
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 62¢	$263.95	$276.3	+$12.35	55% 7197-5897 (13094)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.4¢	$92.66	—	-$92.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 62¢	$171.29	$276.3	+$105.01
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 79.2¢	$211.6	$196.94	-$14.67	64% 57632-32369 (90001)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 57.1¢	$242.21	$257.46	+$17.49	60% 11995-7877 (19872)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.2¢	$92.51	—	-$92.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.1¢	$147.09	$257.46	+$110.36
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$713.79	$721	+$7.21	93% 22702-1736 (24438)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 66.8¢	$186.15	$174.19	-$11.96	59% 22905-16085 (38990)
pspspsps5	Upavg 84.3¢	$146.22	$173.48	+$27.26	46% 37929-44598 (82527)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 83.8¢	$277.01	$270.37	-$6.64	55% 23669-19145 (42814)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.8¢	$226.51	$270.37	+$43.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$50.5	—	-$50.5
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 91.1¢	$273.9	$180.05	-$93.85	65% 124383-66536 (190919)
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.1¢	$109.92	—	-$109.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 91.1¢	$163.98	$180.05	+$16.07
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Upavg 84.5¢	$285.74	$282	-$3.74	55% 44215-36703 (80918)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.5¢	$238.35	$282	+$43.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.4¢	$47.39	—	-$47.39
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 74.3¢	$200.01	$258.5	+$58.49	58% 37423-26662 (64085)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.3¢	$192.09	$258.5	+$66.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 11¢	$7.92	—	-$7.92
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Downavg 53.5¢	$79.2	$120	+$40.8	57% 10169-7617 (17786)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.5¢	$64.2	—	-$64.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 12.5¢	$15	$120	+$105
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 90.1¢	$101.94	$113.11	+$11.18	55% 17378-14015 (31393)
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Upavg 58.4¢	$100.07	$144.39	+$44.33	52% 89516-83965 (173481)
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.5¢	$15.67	—	-$15.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.4¢	$84.4	$144.39	+$60
13 13897651	Upavg 63.7¢	$99.99	$156.98	+$56.99	59% 6540-4526 (11066)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,453.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$77.7

Record

56%

14167-11114 (25281)

Both legs:

Down$871.7854¢-$871.78

Up$581.4242.3¢+$794.08

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$688

Value

$846.71

PnL

+$158.7

Record

49%

5009-5185 (10194)

Both legs:

Down$234.1327.3¢-$234.13

Up$453.8853.6¢+$392.83

BoneOhio

Invested

$2,970.89

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.01

Record

74%

102188-36332 (138520)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$1,361.02

Value

$982.49

PnL

-$378.53

Record

57%

7613-5842 (13455)

Both legs:

Down$610.1782.5¢-$610.17

Up$750.8576.4¢+$231.64

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$640.11

Value

$542.57

PnL

-$97.54

Record

56%

13533-10808 (24341)

Both legs:

Down$331.0449.1¢-$331.04

Up$309.0757¢+$233.49

tmsd-testARB<$100

Invested

$1,434.8

Value

$916.68

PnL

+$174.27

Record

54%

14375-12192 (26567)

Both legs:

Down$144.9434.3¢-$78.85

Up$473.0951.6¢+$253.12

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$522.04

Value

$611.09

PnL

+$89.05

Record

57%

11799-8791 (20590)

Both legs:

Down$185.2847¢-$185.28

Up$336.7655.1¢+$274.33

thesidehustle

Invested

$531.96

Value

$395.98

PnL

-$135.98

Record

54%

10483-8946 (19429)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Down

Invested

$186.55

Value

—

PnL

-$186.55

Record

48%

23092-25227 (48319)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$324.7

Value

$276.45

PnL

-$48.25

Record

56%

12260-9471 (21731)

Both legs:

Down$151.6653.2¢-$151.66

Up$173.0462.6¢+$103.41

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$414

Value

$701.59

PnL

+$287.6

Record

77%

9298-2742 (12040)

Both legs:

Up$356.8950.9¢+$344.7

Down$57.158.2¢-$57.1

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$263.95

Value

$276.3

PnL

+$12.35

Record

55%

7197-5897 (13094)

Both legs:

Down$92.6639.4¢-$92.66

Up$171.2962¢+$105.01

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$211.6

Value

$196.94

PnL

-$14.67

Record

64%

57632-32369 (90001)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$242.21

Value

$257.46

PnL

+$17.49

Record

60%

11995-7877 (19872)

Both legs:

Down$92.5152.2¢-$92.87

Up$147.0957.1¢+$110.36

hoodquant

Invested

$713.79

Value

$721

PnL

+$7.21

Record

93%

22702-1736 (24438)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$186.15

Value

$174.19

PnL

-$11.96

Record

59%

22905-16085 (38990)

pspspsps5

Invested

$146.22

Value

$173.48

PnL

+$27.26

Record

46%

37929-44598 (82527)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$277.01

Value

$270.37

PnL

-$6.64

Record

55%

23669-19145 (42814)

Both legs:

Up$226.5183.8¢+$43.86

Down$50.550.5¢-$50.5

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$273.9

Value

$180.05

PnL

-$93.85

Record

65%

124383-66536 (190919)

Both legs:

Down$109.9291.1¢-$109.92

Up$163.9891.1¢+$16.07

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Invested

$285.74

Value

$282

PnL

-$3.74

Record

55%

44215-36703 (80918)

Both legs:

Up$238.3584.5¢+$43.65

Down$47.3962.4¢-$47.39

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$200.01

Value

$258.5

PnL

+$58.49

Record

58%

37423-26662 (64085)

Both legs:

Up$192.0974.3¢+$66.41

Down$7.9211¢-$7.92

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$79.2

Value

$120

PnL

+$40.8

Record

57%

10169-7617 (17786)

Both legs:

Down$64.253.5¢-$64.2

Up$1512.5¢+$105

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$101.94

Value

$113.11

PnL

+$11.18

Record

55%

17378-14015 (31393)

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Invested

$100.07

Value

$144.39

PnL

+$44.33

Record

52%

89516-83965 (173481)

Both legs:

Down$15.6718.5¢-$15.67

Up$84.458.4¢+$60

13897651

Invested

$99.99

Value

$156.98

PnL

+$56.99

Record

59%

6540-4526 (11066)

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xbab05569...9577c0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793223300

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

BoneOhio

Up — $3.0K

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

tmsd-test

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

thesidehustle

Up — $395.98

-$135.98

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $0

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded