Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 66%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$823.76

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 30 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,341

Combined PnL+$471.53

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,245

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 95.1¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$76.64	57% 7613-5842 (13455)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 76.5¢	$640.39	$714.56	+$74.17	56% 14167-11114 (25281)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$521.1	$532	+$10.9	93% 22702-1736 (24438)
TM tmsd-testCTR	Upavg 31.8¢	$899.89	—	-$328.69	54% 14375-12192 (26567)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 22¢	$148.7	$120	-$28.7	64% 57632-32369 (90001)
└ Up leg	Upavg 22¢	$83.3	—	-$83.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$65.4	$120	+$54.6
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 51¢	$207.33	—	-$207.33	58% 37423-26662 (64085)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 62.4¢	$199.91	$264.37	+$64.46	56% 13533-10808 (24341)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.4¢	$165.03	$264.37	+$99.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.9¢	$34.88	—	-$34.88
GA gansinimen	Downavg 81.9¢	$141.18	$168.06	+$26.88	51% 16957-16529 (33486)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 72.2¢	$96	$133.03	+$37.03	55% 23669-19145 (42814)
machinelearned	Downavg 66.2¢	$163.78	$247.48	+$83.7	55% 8430-6868 (15298)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 88.3¢	$153.56	$132	-$21.56	55% 7197-5897 (13094)
└ Down leg	Downavg 88.3¢	$116.6	$132	+$15.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 42¢	$36.96	—	-$36.96
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 34¢	$645	—	-$645	34% 91-173 (264)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 30.6¢	$83.12	$64.72	-$18.4	56% 12260-9471 (21731)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.6¢	$42.81	—	-$42.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.3¢	$40.31	$64.72	+$24.41
TH thesidehustle<$100	Downavg 60.8¢	$52.61	$73.89	+$21.28	54% 10483-8946 (19429)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$50.01	—	-$50.01	58% 50817-36958 (87775)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 70¢	$70.2	$100.29	+$30.09	56% 57642-44528 (102170)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 65.3¢	$58.8	$90	+$31.2	49% 5009-5185 (10194)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 2.4¢	$15.11	—	-$15.11	46% 37929-44598 (82527)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$20.4	—	-$20.4	51% 19837-18971 (38808)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 66¢	$39.6	$60	+$20.4	65% 124383-66536 (190919)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 63.1¢	$31.1	$49.26	+$18.16	60% 11995-7877 (19872)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 88¢	$33.03	$37.53	+$4.5	57% 10169-7617 (17786)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 33¢	$10.89	—	-$10.89	57% 11799-8791 (20590)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$6	—	-$6	48% 23092-25227 (48319)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 67.8¢	$20.4	$30.07	+$9.67	66% 124717-64207 (188924)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,948.45

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$76.64

Record

57%

7613-5842 (13455)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$640.39

Value

$714.56

PnL

+$74.17

Record

56%

14167-11114 (25281)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$521.1

Value

$532

PnL

+$10.9

Record

93%

22702-1736 (24438)

tmsd-testCTR

Invested

$899.89

Value

—

PnL

-$328.69

Record

54%

14375-12192 (26567)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$148.7

Value

$120

PnL

-$28.7

Record

64%

57632-32369 (90001)

Both legs:

Up$83.322¢-$83.3

Down$65.454.5¢+$54.6

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$207.33

Value

—

PnL

-$207.33

Record

58%

37423-26662 (64085)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$199.91

Value

$264.37

PnL

+$64.46

Record

56%

13533-10808 (24341)

Both legs:

Down$165.0362.4¢+$99.34

Up$34.8827.9¢-$34.88

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$141.18

Value

$168.06

PnL

+$26.88

Record

51%

16957-16529 (33486)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$96

Value

$133.03

PnL

+$37.03

Record

55%

23669-19145 (42814)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$163.78

Value

$247.48

PnL

+$83.7

Record

55%

8430-6868 (15298)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$153.56

Value

$132

PnL

-$21.56

Record

55%

7197-5897 (13094)

Both legs:

Down$116.688.3¢+$15.4

Up$36.9642¢-$36.96

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$645

Value

—

PnL

-$645

Record

34%

91-173 (264)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$83.12

Value

$64.72

PnL

-$18.4

Record

56%

12260-9471 (21731)

Both legs:

Up$42.8130.6¢-$42.81

Down$40.3162.3¢+$24.41

thesidehustle<$100

Down

Invested

$52.61

Value

$73.89

PnL

+$21.28

Record

54%

10483-8946 (19429)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$50.01

Value

—

PnL

-$50.01

Record

58%

50817-36958 (87775)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$70.2

Value

$100.29

PnL

+$30.09

Record

56%

57642-44528 (102170)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$58.8

Value

$90

PnL

+$31.2

Record

49%

5009-5185 (10194)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$15.11

Value

—

PnL

-$15.11

Record

46%

37929-44598 (82527)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

—

PnL

-$20.4

Record

51%

19837-18971 (38808)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$39.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$20.4

Record

65%

124383-66536 (190919)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$31.1

Value

$49.26

PnL

+$18.16

Record

60%

11995-7877 (19872)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$33.03

Value

$37.53

PnL

+$4.5

Record

57%

10169-7617 (17786)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

—

PnL

-$10.89

Record

57%

11799-8791 (20590)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$6

Record

48%

23092-25227 (48319)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$20.4

Value

$30.07

PnL

+$9.67

Record

66%

124717-64207 (188924)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 30 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe209f079...856800

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793223000

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Down — $2.0K

+$76.64

CrouchPredictions

Down — $714.56

+$74.17

hoodquant

Down — $532

tmsd-test

Up — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Down — $168.06

+$26.88

sir-upalot

Down — $133.03

+$37.03

machinelearned

Down — $247.48

+$83.7

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