Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$44.91

Smart Money Signal

16 of 22 top traders (73%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares1,988

Combined PnL+$309.54

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,433

Combined PnL-$354.46

Up — 73%Down — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 61.3¢	$417.76	$419.24	+$1.48	56% 14155-11105 (25260)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.3¢	$256.84	$419.24	+$162.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.1¢	$160.92	—	-$160.92
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 72.6¢	$415.99	$399.75	-$16.24	49% 4998-5180 (10178)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.6¢	$290.19	$399.75	+$109.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 19¢	$125.8	—	-$125.8
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 66.7¢	$418.19	$476.84	+$58.65	56% 13527-10798 (24325)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Downavg 31.3¢	$878.85	$239.35	-$121.43	54% 14363-12179 (26542)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.3¢	$236.08	—	-$237.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.2¢	$160.81	$239.35	+$115.67
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 68.4¢	$289.86	$328.9	+$39.03	57% 11790-8783 (20573)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 63.2¢	$257.12	$290.92	+$33.79	56% 12251-9464 (21715)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 80.1¢	$285.56	$303	+$20.19	55% 7185-5891 (13076)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Downavg 28.8¢	$250	—	-$250	34% 91-173 (264)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 69.8¢	$197.01	$175.33	-$21.68	60% 11985-7869 (19854)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.8¢	$122.3	$175.33	+$53.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.1¢	$74.71	—	-$74.71
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 66.7¢	$136.82	$106	-$30.82	64% 57631-32367 (89998)
└ Down leg	Downavg 23¢	$66.14	—	-$66.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.7¢	$70.68	$106	+$35.32
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 34.6¢	$133.31	$80	-$53.31	57% 7604-5835 (13439)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.6¢	$85.76	—	-$85.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.4¢	$47.55	$80	+$32.45
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Upavg 67¢	$38.33	$50.06	+$11.73	52% 89477-83931 (173408)
└ Down leg	Downavg 2.4¢	$4.79	—	-$4.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 67¢	$33.54	$50.06	+$16.52
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Upavg 71.2¢	$48.37	$66.1	+$17.73	61% 94030-59124 (153154)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.2¢	$47.05	$66.1	+$19.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 1¢	$1.32	—	-$1.32
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 10¢	$28.07	—	-$28.07	46% 37909-44573 (82482)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 70.9¢	$61.1	$86.21	+$25.11	64% 39741-22699 (62440)
GA gansinimen<$100	Upavg 78¢	$62.83	$80.58	+$17.75	51% 16948-16526 (33474)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 69.1¢	$49.8	$72.09	+$22.29	65% 124345-66513 (190858)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 69.6¢	$45.21	$64.95	+$19.74	66% 124678-64187 (188865)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 94¢	$57	$60.64	+$3.64	51% 19816-18956 (38772)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 71¢	$43	$50	+$7	55% 8420-6860 (15280)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 70.8¢	$39.93	$56.42	+$16.49	65% 21845-12018 (33863)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$27.35	—	-$27.35	55% 17349-13981 (31330)
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Downavg 11.9¢	$16.64	—	-$16.64	54% 10483-8946 (19429)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 67¢	$33.53	$50.04	+$16.51	62% 43601-26547 (70148)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 52¢	$32.39	—	-$32.39	59% 6529-4520 (11049)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$417.76

Value

$419.24

PnL

+$1.48

Record

56%

14155-11105 (25260)

Both legs:

Up$256.8461.3¢+$162.4

Down$160.9219.1¢-$160.92

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$415.99

Value

$399.75

PnL

-$16.24

Record

49%

4998-5180 (10178)

Both legs:

Up$290.1972.6¢+$109.56

Down$125.819¢-$125.8

GoodFallen

Invested

$418.19

Value

$476.84

PnL

+$58.65

Record

56%

13527-10798 (24325)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Down

Invested

$878.85

Value

$239.35

PnL

-$121.43

Record

54%

14363-12179 (26542)

Both legs:

Down$236.0831.3¢-$237.1

Up$160.8167.2¢+$115.67

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$289.86

Value

$328.9

PnL

+$39.03

Record

57%

11790-8783 (20573)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$257.12

Value

$290.92

PnL

+$33.79

Record

56%

12251-9464 (21715)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$285.56

Value

$303

PnL

+$20.19

Record

55%

7185-5891 (13076)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Down

Invested

$250

Value

—

PnL

-$250

Record

34%

91-173 (264)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$197.01

Value

$175.33

PnL

-$21.68

Record

60%

11985-7869 (19854)

Both legs:

Up$122.369.8¢+$53.03

Down$74.7134.1¢-$74.71

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$136.82

Value

$106

PnL

-$30.82

Record

64%

57631-32367 (89998)

Both legs:

Invested

$133.31

Value

$80

PnL

-$53.31

Record

57%

7604-5835 (13439)

Both legs:

Down$85.7634.6¢-$85.76

Up$47.5559.4¢+$32.45

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Invested

$38.33

Value

$50.06

PnL

+$11.73

Record

52%

89477-83931 (173408)

Both legs:

Down$4.792.4¢-$4.79

Up$33.5467¢+$16.52

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Invested

$48.37

Value

$66.1

PnL

+$17.73

Record

61%

94030-59124 (153154)

Both legs:

Invested

$28.07

Value

—

PnL

-$28.07

Record

46%

37909-44573 (82482)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$61.1

Value

$86.21

PnL

+$25.11

Record

64%

39741-22699 (62440)

gansinimen<$100

Invested

$62.83

Value

$80.58

PnL

+$17.75

Record

51%

16948-16526 (33474)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$49.8

Value

$72.09

PnL

+$22.29

Record

65%

124345-66513 (190858)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$45.21

Value

$64.95

PnL

+$19.74

Record

66%

124678-64187 (188865)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$57

Value

$60.64

PnL

+$3.64

Record

51%

19816-18956 (38772)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$43

Value

$50

PnL

+$7

Record

55%

8420-6860 (15280)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$39.93

Value

$56.42

PnL

+$16.49

Record

65%

21845-12018 (33863)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.35

Value

—

PnL

-$27.35

Record

55%

17349-13981 (31330)

thesidehustleCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.64

Value

—

PnL

-$16.64

Record

54%

10483-8946 (19429)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$33.53

Value

$50.04

PnL

+$16.51

Record

62%

43601-26547 (70148)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.39

Value

—

PnL

-$32.39

Record

59%

6529-4520 (11049)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 22 top traders (73%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x3af822ae...0e4bdb

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793222400

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Up — $476.84

+$58.65

tmsd-test

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$121.43

EZTRADENL2

Up — $328.9

+$39.03

FairValueMachine

Up — $290.92

+$33.79

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $303

+$20.19

Imgonnadoit

CTR

Down — $0

-$250

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded