Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Up 60%
1 arb excluded
$3.7K
-$989.88
Smart Money Signal
19 of 32 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324 | Upavg 95.7¢ | $973.74 | $1.0K | +$43.58 | 51% 869-844 (1713) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.8¢ | $34.09 | — | -$34.09 | 59% 62001-43068 (105069) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 87.1¢ | $627.34 | $577 | -$50.34 | 57% 7604-5835 (13439) |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Downavg 37.6¢ | $875.72 | — | -$445.32 | 54% 14363-12179 (26542) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 60.9¢ | $409.02 | $349.21 | -$59.82 | 56% 14155-11105 (25260) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 95.7¢ | $257.04 | $268.5 | +$11.46 | 65% 3914-2109 (6023) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 68.6¢ | $240.71 | $236.38 | -$4.33 | 49% 4998-5180 (10178) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 17.4¢ | $129.24 | — | -$129.24 | 64% 57631-32367 (89998) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 84.9¢ | $135.8 | $160 | +$24.2 | 57% 10156-7610 (17766) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 48.2¢ | $98.5 | $142.81 | +$44.31 | 56% 12251-9464 (21715) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 57.5¢ | $257.48 | — | -$257.48 | 56% 13527-10798 (24325) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 49¢ | $118.18 | $222.97 | +$104.78 | 58% 37406-26644 (64050) |
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700 | Upavg 84.9¢ | $90.33 | $106.39 | +$16.06 | 63% 1754-1021 (2775) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 42.7¢ | $75.63 | $105.21 | +$29.59 | 57% 11790-8783 (20573) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 81¢ | $96 | $100 | +$4 | 51% 16948-16526 (33474) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Downavg 45.2¢ | $171.76 | — | -$171.71 | 55% 7185-5891 (13076) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 66.4¢ | $51 | $68.54 | +$17.54 | 55% 23661-19135 (42796) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 66.6¢ | $76.97 | — | -$76.97 | 34% 18536-35559 (54095) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 49.4¢ | $71.71 | $145.3 | +$73.59 | 60% 11985-7869 (19854) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 93¢ | $105.64 | $60 | -$45.64 | 54% 10483-8946 (19429) |
PB PBot-6ARB<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $48.01 | $50.01 | +$2 | 58% 50806-36950 (87756) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49¢ | $24.5 | $50.01 | +$25.51 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47¢ | $23.5 | — | -$23.5 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 88.5¢ | $56.96 | $50.79 | -$6.17 | 66% 124678-64187 (188865) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 50.6¢ | $17.18 | $33.95 | +$16.78 | 59% 6529-4520 (11049) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 34.7¢ | $7.96 | $15.58 | +$7.62 | 52% 89477-83931 (173408) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $13.55 | — | -$13.55 | 55% 17349-13981 (31330) |
Invested
$973.74
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$43.58
Record
51%
869-844 (1713)
Invested
$34.09
Value
—
PnL
-$34.09
Record
59%
62001-43068 (105069)
Invested
$627.34
Value
$577
PnL
-$50.34
Record
57%
7604-5835 (13439)
Invested
$875.72
Value
—
PnL
-$445.32
Record
54%
14363-12179 (26542)
Invested
$409.02
Value
$349.21
PnL
-$59.82
Record
56%
14155-11105 (25260)
AtomforgeInvested
$257.04
Value
$268.5
PnL
+$11.46
Record
65%
3914-2109 (6023)
Invested
$240.71
Value
$236.38
PnL
-$4.33
Record
49%
4998-5180 (10178)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$129.24
Value
—
PnL
-$129.24
Record
64%
57631-32367 (89998)
Invested
$135.8
Value
$160
PnL
+$24.2
Record
57%
10156-7610 (17766)
FairValueMachineInvested
$98.5
Value
$142.81
PnL
+$44.31
Record
56%
12251-9464 (21715)
Invested
$257.48
Value
—
PnL
-$257.48
Record
56%
13527-10798 (24325)
Invested
$118.18
Value
$222.97
PnL
+$104.78
Record
58%
37406-26644 (64050)
Invested
$90.33
Value
$106.39
PnL
+$16.06
Record
63%
1754-1021 (2775)
Invested
$75.63
Value
$105.21
PnL
+$29.59
Record
57%
11790-8783 (20573)
Invested
$96
Value
$100
PnL
+$4
Record
51%
16948-16526 (33474)
Invested
$171.76
Value
—
PnL
-$171.71
Record
55%
7185-5891 (13076)
Invested
$51
Value
$68.54
PnL
+$17.54
Record
55%
23661-19135 (42796)
Invested
$76.97
Value
—
PnL
-$76.97
Record
34%
18536-35559 (54095)
Invested
$71.71
Value
$145.3
PnL
+$73.59
Record
60%
11985-7869 (19854)
Invested
$105.64
Value
$60
PnL
-$45.64
Record
54%
10483-8946 (19429)
Invested
$48.01
Value
$50.01
PnL
+$2
Record
58%
50806-36950 (87756)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.96
Value
$50.79
PnL
-$6.17
Record
66%
124678-64187 (188865)
Invested
$17.18
Value
$33.95
PnL
+$16.78
Record
59%
6529-4520 (11049)
Invested
$7.96
Value
$15.58
PnL
+$7.62
Record
52%
89477-83931 (173408)
Invested
$13.55
Value
—
PnL
-$13.55
Record
55%
17349-13981 (31330)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324
Up — $1.0K
0x50f7
CTRDown — $0
wzbbb
Up — $577
tmsd-test
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
Up — $349.21
Atomforge
Up — $268.5
ply-pm0
Up — $236.38
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
trdyugiolkw
Up — $160
FairValueMachine
Up — $142.81