Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Down 55%
5 arb excluded
$3.8K
-$711.39
Smart Money Signal
11 of 21 top traders (52%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$8.45 | 59% 62001-43068 (105069) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $730.86 | $745.78 | +$14.92 | 93% 22666-1735 (24401) |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Upavg 34.5¢ | $508.62 | — | -$451.2 | 54% 14363-12179 (26542) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 62.7¢ | $200 | $236.72 | +$36.72 | 56% 13527-10798 (24325) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.7¢ | $148.42 | $236.72 | +$88.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36¢ | $51.58 | — | -$51.58 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 71.6¢ | $178.15 | $188.97 | +$10.83 | 49% 4998-5180 (10178) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 28.5¢ | $240.95 | — | -$211.25 | 64% 57631-32367 (89998) |
TH thesidehustle | Downavg 79.4¢ | $154.33 | $116.37 | -$37.96 | 54% 10483-8946 (19429) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 56.3¢ | $112.57 | $200 | +$87.43 | 57% 11790-8783 (20573) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 98¢ | $111.08 | $101 | -$10.08 | 65% 124345-66513 (190858) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 49¢ | $107.75 | — | -$107.75 | 58% 37406-26644 (64050) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $92.41 | $141.76 | +$49.35 | 59% 6529-4520 (11049) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $70.99 | $141.76 | +$70.77 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $21.42 | — | -$21.42 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $72.2 | $75 | +$2.8 | 55% 7185-5891 (13076) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $59.93 | $46.36 | -$11.42 | 60% 11985-7869 (19854) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37¢ | $30.71 | — | -$30.41 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59¢ | $27.37 | $46.36 | +$18.99 | |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $67.06 | $84.48 | +$17.43 | 57% 7604-5835 (13439) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 95.5¢ | $52.29 | $50.99 | -$1.3 | 61% 94030-59124 (153154) |
SI sir-upalotARB<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $52.5 | $50 | -$2.5 | 55% 23661-19135 (42796) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68¢ | $34 | $50 | +$16 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37¢ | $18.5 | — | -$18.5 | |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Downavg 63.7¢ | $57.3 | $90 | +$32.7 | 57% 10156-7610 (17766) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $51.14 | $45.28 | -$5.86 | 56% 12251-9464 (21715) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64¢ | $28.98 | $45.28 | +$16.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.4¢ | $22.16 | — | -$22.16 | |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $2.87 | — | -$2.87 | 55% 8420-6860 (15280) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 75.1¢ | $39.11 | $44.11 | +$5 | 66% 124678-64187 (188865) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $25.43 | — | -$25.43 | 58% 50806-36950 (87756) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 43.1¢ | $11.1 | — | -$11.1 | 55% 17349-13981 (31330) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $2.1 | — | -$2.1 | 51% 19816-18956 (38772) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.6¢ | $7.66 | — | -$7.66 | 46% 37909-44573 (82482) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.4¢ | $5.34 | — | -$5.34 | 52% 89477-83931 (173408) |
Invested
$1,576.55
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$8.45
Record
59%
62001-43068 (105069)
Invested
$730.86
Value
$745.78
PnL
+$14.92
Record
93%
22666-1735 (24401)
Invested
$508.62
Value
—
PnL
-$451.2
Record
54%
14363-12179 (26542)
Invested
$200
Value
$236.72
PnL
+$36.72
Record
56%
13527-10798 (24325)
Both legs:
Invested
$178.15
Value
$188.97
PnL
+$10.83
Record
49%
4998-5180 (10178)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$240.95
Value
—
PnL
-$211.25
Record
64%
57631-32367 (89998)
Invested
$154.33
Value
$116.37
PnL
-$37.96
Record
54%
10483-8946 (19429)
Invested
$112.57
Value
$200
PnL
+$87.43
Record
57%
11790-8783 (20573)
Invested
$111.08
Value
$101
PnL
-$10.08
Record
65%
124345-66513 (190858)
Invested
$107.75
Value
—
PnL
-$107.75
Record
58%
37406-26644 (64050)
Invested
$92.41
Value
$141.76
PnL
+$49.35
Record
59%
6529-4520 (11049)
Both legs:
Invested
$72.2
Value
$75
PnL
+$2.8
Record
55%
7185-5891 (13076)
Invested
$59.93
Value
$46.36
PnL
-$11.42
Record
60%
11985-7869 (19854)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.06
Value
$84.48
PnL
+$17.43
Record
57%
7604-5835 (13439)
Invested
$52.29
Value
$50.99
PnL
-$1.3
Record
61%
94030-59124 (153154)
Invested
$52.5
Value
$50
PnL
-$2.5
Record
55%
23661-19135 (42796)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.3
Value
$90
PnL
+$32.7
Record
57%
10156-7610 (17766)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$51.14
Value
$45.28
PnL
-$5.86
Record
56%
12251-9464 (21715)
Both legs:
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$2.87
Value
—
PnL
-$2.87
Record
55%
8420-6860 (15280)
Invested
$39.11
Value
$44.11
PnL
+$5
Record
66%
124678-64187 (188865)
Invested
$25.43
Value
—
PnL
-$25.43
Record
58%
50806-36950 (87756)
Invested
$11.1
Value
—
PnL
-$11.1
Record
55%
17349-13981 (31330)
Invested
$2.1
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
51%
19816-18956 (38772)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$7.66
Value
—
PnL
-$7.66
Record
46%
37909-44573 (82482)
Invested
$5.34
Value
—
PnL
-$5.34
Record
52%
89477-83931 (173408)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $1.6K
hoodquant
Down — $745.78
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Down — $188.97
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
thesidehustle
Down — $116.37
EZTRADENL2
Down — $200
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $101
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0