Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$263.25

Smart Money Signal

15 of 21 top traders (71%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,578

Combined PnL+$546.78

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares901

Combined PnL-$283.52

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$16.1	56% 29252-23027 (52279)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$14.93	93% 22666-1735 (24401)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 60.9¢	$1.0K	$859.74	-$174.8	56% 14155-11105 (25260)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.8¢	$511.32	—	-$511.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.9¢	$523.23	$859.74	+$336.52
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Downavg 51.1¢	$1.3K	$626.51	-$46.74	54% 14363-12179 (26542)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$518.32	—	-$493.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.9¢	$218.95	$626.51	+$446.34
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 53.8¢	$578.81	$579.97	+$1.16	56% 13527-10798 (24325)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.8¢	$311.04	—	-$311.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.2¢	$267.77	$579.97	+$312.2
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 82.3¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$172.46	57% 7604-5835 (13439)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$390.15	$366.53	-$23.62	56% 12251-9464 (21715)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.8¢	$168.49	—	-$168.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.5¢	$221.66	$366.53	+$144.87
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 65¢	$354.96	$361.77	+$6.82	49% 4998-5180 (10178)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 63.9¢	$284.84	$255.21	-$29.63	55% 8420-6860 (15280)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.9¢	$175.75	—	-$175.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.7¢	$109.09	$255.21	+$146.12
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 65.6¢	$279.52	$261.45	-$18.07	54% 10483-8946 (19429)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$108	—	-$108
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.6¢	$171.52	$261.45	+$89.93
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 75.4¢	$186.6	$244.44	+$57.84	58% 37406-26644 (64050)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 19.8¢	$138.08	—	-$63.83	64% 57631-32367 (89998)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 60.6¢	$215.74	$127.99	-$87.75	57% 11790-8783 (20573)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.6¢	$140.97	—	-$140.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.4¢	$74.78	$127.99	+$53.22
SI sir-upalotCTR	Downavg 69.7¢	$119.61	—	-$119.61	55% 23661-19135 (42796)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 89.6¢	$154.03	$118.71	-$35.32	51% 16948-16526 (33474)
└ Down leg	Downavg 89.6¢	$103.55	—	-$103.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.5¢	$50.48	$118.71	+$68.23
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 66¢	$106.53	$74.69	-$31.84	60% 11985-7869 (19854)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66¢	$87.12	—	-$87.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 26¢	$19.42	$74.69	+$55.27
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 35.4¢	$106.55	$300.89	+$194.35	55% 17349-13981 (31330)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 99¢	$158.4	$120	-$38.4	65% 124345-66513 (190858)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66¢	$39.6	—	-$39.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 99¢	$118.8	$120	+$1.2
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 89¢	$68.07	$60.92	-$7.15	61% 94030-59124 (153154)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 84.1¢	$113.93	$118.99	+$5.07	55% 44184-36684 (80868)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 71.7¢	$62.08	$49.44	-$12.64	66% 124678-64187 (188865)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 9.5¢	$5.74	—	-$5.74	46% 37909-44573 (82482)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 54¢	$59.53	$100.28	+$40.75	58% 60145-43906 (104051)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 11.3¢	$31.28	—	-$31.28	52% 89477-83931 (173408)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$38.79	—	-$38.79	65% 21845-12018 (33863)

THG.

Invested

$1,593.57

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$16.1

Record

56%

29252-23027 (52279)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,396.07

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$14.93

Record

93%

22666-1735 (24401)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,034.54

Value

$859.74

PnL

-$174.8

Record

56%

14155-11105 (25260)

Both legs:

Down$511.3241.8¢-$511.32

Up$523.2360.9¢+$336.52

tmsd-testARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,269.15

Value

$626.51

PnL

-$46.74

Record

54%

14363-12179 (26542)

Both legs:

Down$518.3251.1¢-$493.08

Up$218.9534.9¢+$446.34

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$578.81

Value

$579.97

PnL

+$1.16

Record

56%

13527-10798 (24325)

Both legs:

Down$311.0453.8¢-$311.04

Up$267.7746.2¢+$312.2

wzbbb

Invested

$1,033.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$172.46

Record

57%

7604-5835 (13439)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$390.15

Value

$366.53

PnL

-$23.62

Record

56%

12251-9464 (21715)

Both legs:

Down$168.4944.8¢-$168.49

Up$221.6660.5¢+$144.87

ply-pm0

Invested

$354.96

Value

$361.77

PnL

+$6.82

Record

49%

4998-5180 (10178)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$284.84

Value

$255.21

PnL

-$29.63

Record

55%

8420-6860 (15280)

Both legs:

Down$175.7563.9¢-$175.75

Up$109.0942.7¢+$146.12

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$279.52

Value

$261.45

PnL

-$18.07

Record

54%

10483-8946 (19429)

Both legs:

Down$10845¢-$108

Up$171.5265.6¢+$89.93

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$186.6

Value

$244.44

PnL

+$57.84

Record

58%

37406-26644 (64050)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$138.08

Value

—

PnL

-$63.83

Record

64%

57631-32367 (89998)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$215.74

Value

$127.99

PnL

-$87.75

Record

57%

11790-8783 (20573)

Both legs:

Down$140.9760.6¢-$140.97

Up$74.7858.4¢+$53.22

sir-upalotCTR

Down

Invested

$119.61

Value

—

PnL

-$119.61

Record

55%

23661-19135 (42796)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$154.03

Value

$118.71

PnL

-$35.32

Record

51%

16948-16526 (33474)

Both legs:

Down$103.5589.6¢-$103.55

Up$50.4842.5¢+$68.23

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$106.53

Value

$74.69

PnL

-$31.84

Record

60%

11985-7869 (19854)

Both legs:

Down$87.1266¢-$87.12

Up$19.4226¢+$55.27

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$106.55

Value

$300.89

PnL

+$194.35

Record

55%

17349-13981 (31330)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$158.4

Value

$120

PnL

-$38.4

Record

65%

124345-66513 (190858)

Both legs:

Down$39.666¢-$39.6

Up$118.899¢+$1.2

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$68.07

Value

$60.92

PnL

-$7.15

Record

61%

94030-59124 (153154)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$113.93

Value

$118.99

PnL

+$5.07

Record

55%

44184-36684 (80868)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$62.08

Value

$49.44

PnL

-$12.64

Record

66%

124678-64187 (188865)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.74

Value

—

PnL

-$5.74

Record

46%

37909-44573 (82482)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$59.53

Value

$100.28

PnL

+$40.75

Record

58%

60145-43906 (104051)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$31.28

Value

—

PnL

-$31.28

Record

52%

89477-83931 (173408)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$38.79

Value

—

PnL

-$38.79

Record

65%

21845-12018 (33863)

Smart Money Signal

15 of 21 top traders (71%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x00ceb344...6558a6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793221200

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $1.6K

+$16.1

hoodquant

Up — $1.4K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

tmsd-test

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Up — $1.2K

+$172.46

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$23.62

ply-pm0

Up — $361.77

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

thesidehustle

Arbitrage — excluded