Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
25
Up 74%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
$12.79
Smart Money Signal
18 of 25 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $745.64 | $753.17 | +$7.53 | 93% 22666-1735 (24401) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 68.7¢ | $474.36 | $532.12 | +$57.76 | 56% 14155-11105 (25260) |
TM tmsd-test | Upavg 68.8¢ | $591.04 | $264.31 | +$43.95 | 54% 14363-12179 (26542) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 80.6¢ | $294.22 | $287.13 | -$7.1 | 55% 7185-5891 (13076) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 87.1¢ | $251.04 | $235.9 | -$15.14 | 57% 7604-5835 (13439) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 69.5¢ | $177.31 | $152.18 | -$25.13 | 49% 4998-5180 (10178) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $71.98 | — | -$71.98 | 48% 23081-25212 (48293) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 72.2¢ | $116.26 | $129.51 | +$13.25 | 56% 13527-10798 (24325) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.2¢ | $93.5 | $129.51 | +$36.01 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.1¢ | $22.75 | — | -$22.75 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 75.7¢ | $104.41 | $101.58 | -$2.83 | 60% 11985-7869 (19854) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 5.3¢ | $13.05 | — | -$13.05 | 46% 37909-44573 (82482) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 76.5¢ | $114.7 | $150 | +$35.3 | 56% 12251-9464 (21715) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $62.4 | $60 | -$2.4 | 54% 10483-8946 (19429) |
GA gansinimen<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $85 | $100 | +$15 | 51% 16948-16526 (33474) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 77.8¢ | $37.53 | $45.38 | +$7.85 | 66% 124678-64187 (188865) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 64.1¢ | $38.95 | $60.74 | +$21.79 | 55% 17349-13981 (31330) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 96.9¢ | $78.03 | $37.51 | +$0.33 | 61% 94030-59124 (153154) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $43.64 | $50.74 | +$7.1 | 56% 57617-44504 (102121) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Downavg 35.7¢ | $26.39 | — | -$26.39 | 57% 11790-8783 (20573) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Downavg 37¢ | $18.5 | — | -$18.5 | 55% 23661-19135 (42796) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 5.7¢ | $15.31 | — | -$15.31 | 55% 8420-6860 (15280) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $13.02 | $21 | +$7.98 | 55% 44184-36684 (80868) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 54.3¢ | $8.15 | $15 | +$6.85 | 59% 6529-4520 (11049) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $3.11 | — | -$3.11 | 58% 37406-26644 (64050) |
PA Parad0X<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $2.8 | $5.09 | +$2.29 | 56% 2143-1679 (3822) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19816-18956 (38772) |
Invested
$745.64
Value
$753.17
PnL
+$7.53
Record
93%
22666-1735 (24401)
Invested
$474.36
Value
$532.12
PnL
+$57.76
Record
56%
14155-11105 (25260)
Invested
$591.04
Value
$264.31
PnL
+$43.95
Record
54%
14363-12179 (26542)
Invested
$294.22
Value
$287.13
PnL
-$7.1
Record
55%
7185-5891 (13076)
Invested
$251.04
Value
$235.9
PnL
-$15.14
Record
57%
7604-5835 (13439)
Invested
$177.31
Value
$152.18
PnL
-$25.13
Record
49%
4998-5180 (10178)
Invested
$71.98
Value
—
PnL
-$71.98
Record
48%
23081-25212 (48293)
Invested
$116.26
Value
$129.51
PnL
+$13.25
Record
56%
13527-10798 (24325)
Both legs:
Invested
$104.41
Value
$101.58
PnL
-$2.83
Record
60%
11985-7869 (19854)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$13.05
Value
—
PnL
-$13.05
Record
46%
37909-44573 (82482)
FairValueMachineInvested
$114.7
Value
$150
PnL
+$35.3
Record
56%
12251-9464 (21715)
Invested
$62.4
Value
$60
PnL
-$2.4
Record
54%
10483-8946 (19429)
Invested
$85
Value
$100
PnL
+$15
Record
51%
16948-16526 (33474)
Invested
$37.53
Value
$45.38
PnL
+$7.85
Record
66%
124678-64187 (188865)
Invested
$38.95
Value
$60.74
PnL
+$21.79
Record
55%
17349-13981 (31330)
Invested
$78.03
Value
$37.51
PnL
+$0.33
Record
61%
94030-59124 (153154)
Invested
$43.64
Value
$50.74
PnL
+$7.1
Record
56%
57617-44504 (102121)
Invested
$26.39
Value
—
PnL
-$26.39
Record
57%
11790-8783 (20573)
Invested
$18.5
Value
—
PnL
-$18.5
Record
55%
23661-19135 (42796)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$15.31
Value
—
PnL
-$15.31
Record
55%
8420-6860 (15280)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.02
Value
$21
PnL
+$7.98
Record
55%
44184-36684 (80868)
Invested
$8.15
Value
$15
PnL
+$6.85
Record
59%
6529-4520 (11049)
Invested
$3.11
Value
—
PnL
-$3.11
Record
58%
37406-26644 (64050)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$5.09
PnL
+$2.29
Record
56%
2143-1679 (3822)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19816-18956 (38772)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $753.17
CrouchPredictions
Up — $532.12
tmsd-test
Up — $264.31
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $287.13
wzbbb
Up — $235.9
ply-pm0
Up — $152.18
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
CTRDown — $0
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $101.58
pspspsps5
CTRDown — $0