Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Up 77%
8 arb excluded
$8.8K
$164.46
Smart Money Signal
10 of 13 top traders (77%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR arcsine-barristerARB<$100 | Down | $5.0K | $5.0K | -$5.02 | 56% 3625-2813 (6438) |
| └ Up leg | Up | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$1.4K | |
| └ Down leg | Down | — | — | $-1.4K | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$13.08 | 93% 22666-1735 (24401) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 75.8¢ | $535.22 | $558.26 | +$23.04 | 56% 14155-11105 (25260) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 75.8¢ | $423.09 | $558.26 | +$135.17 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 12.2¢ | $112.13 | — | -$112.13 | |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Upavg 81.3¢ | $534.44 | $328.8 | -$13.62 | 54% 14363-12179 (26542) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 81.3¢ | $267.2 | $328.8 | +$88.51 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 14.5¢ | $93.81 | — | -$102.13 | |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 95.1¢ | $438.66 | $456.93 | +$18.27 | 57% 7604-5835 (13439) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Upavg 59.5¢ | $144.32 | $175.99 | +$31.68 | 60% 11985-7869 (19854) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.5¢ | $104.72 | $175.99 | +$71.28 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 22.5¢ | $39.6 | — | -$39.6 | |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 71.9¢ | $173.45 | $165.3 | -$8.15 | 56% 12251-9464 (21715) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71.9¢ | $118.85 | $165.3 | +$46.45 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42¢ | $54.6 | — | -$54.6 | |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $155.36 | $150 | -$5.37 | 49% 4998-5180 (10178) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 84¢ | $126 | $150 | +$24 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 22.9¢ | $29.37 | — | -$29.37 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 59.6¢ | $97.98 | $164.38 | +$66.4 | 57% 11790-8783 (20573) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 73.4¢ | $139.89 | $102.93 | -$36.96 | 56% 13527-10798 (24325) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 73.4¢ | $75.57 | $102.93 | +$27.36 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.7¢ | $64.32 | — | -$64.32 | |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $50.61 | $60.01 | +$9.4 | 54% 10483-8946 (19429) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 7.5¢ | $12.8 | — | -$12.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63¢ | $37.81 | $60.01 | +$22.2 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 67¢ | $100.56 | $150.09 | +$49.53 | 56% 57617-44504 (102121) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 57.2¢ | $43.68 | $46.5 | +$4.02 | 55% 7185-5891 (13076) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 93.1¢ | $42.29 | $45.42 | +$3.13 | 55% 8420-6860 (15280) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 57.8¢ | $17.08 | $29.53 | +$12.45 | 59% 6529-4520 (11049) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $13.75 | $13 | -$0.75 | 66% 124678-64187 (188865) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 57.5¢ | $9.56 | $16.64 | +$7.08 | 55% 23661-19135 (42796) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 43.5¢ | $7.35 | — | -$7.35 | 55% 17349-13981 (31330) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $4.89 | $6.44 | +$1.55 | 58% 60145-43906 (104051) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 25.1¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.5 | 52% 89477-83931 (173408) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $1.45 | — | -$1.45 | 61% 94030-59124 (153154) |
Invested
$4,976.74
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$5.02
Record
56%
3625-2813 (6438)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,295.15
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.08
Record
93%
22666-1735 (24401)
Invested
$535.22
Value
$558.26
PnL
+$23.04
Record
56%
14155-11105 (25260)
Both legs:
Invested
$534.44
Value
$328.8
PnL
-$13.62
Record
54%
14363-12179 (26542)
Both legs:
Invested
$438.66
Value
$456.93
PnL
+$18.27
Record
57%
7604-5835 (13439)
Invested
$144.32
Value
$175.99
PnL
+$31.68
Record
60%
11985-7869 (19854)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$173.45
Value
$165.3
PnL
-$8.15
Record
56%
12251-9464 (21715)
Both legs:
Invested
$155.36
Value
$150
PnL
-$5.37
Record
49%
4998-5180 (10178)
Both legs:
Invested
$97.98
Value
$164.38
PnL
+$66.4
Record
57%
11790-8783 (20573)
Invested
$139.89
Value
$102.93
PnL
-$36.96
Record
56%
13527-10798 (24325)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.61
Value
$60.01
PnL
+$9.4
Record
54%
10483-8946 (19429)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.56
Value
$150.09
PnL
+$49.53
Record
56%
57617-44504 (102121)
Invested
$43.68
Value
$46.5
PnL
+$4.02
Record
55%
7185-5891 (13076)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$42.29
Value
$45.42
PnL
+$3.13
Record
55%
8420-6860 (15280)
Invested
$17.08
Value
$29.53
PnL
+$12.45
Record
59%
6529-4520 (11049)
Invested
$13.75
Value
$13
PnL
-$0.75
Record
66%
124678-64187 (188865)
Invested
$9.56
Value
$16.64
PnL
+$7.08
Record
55%
23661-19135 (42796)
Invested
$7.35
Value
—
PnL
-$7.35
Record
55%
17349-13981 (31330)
Invested
$4.89
Value
$6.44
PnL
+$1.55
Record
58%
60145-43906 (104051)
Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.5
Record
52%
89477-83931 (173408)
Invested
$1.45
Value
—
PnL
-$1.45
Record
61%
94030-59124 (153154)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $1.3K
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
Up — $456.93
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
ARBArbitrage — excluded
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
EZTRADENL2
Up — $164.38
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded