Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 59%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$272.43

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 19 top traders (63%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,748

Combined PnL+$190.66

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,182

Combined PnL-$463.1

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 89.8¢	$732.64	$745.39	+$12.75	57% 7604-5835 (13439)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 62.7¢	$514.97	$572.17	+$57.2	56% 13527-10798 (24325)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Downavg 66.8¢	$1.2K	$467.33	+$25.99	54% 14363-12179 (26542)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.8¢	$312.25	$467.33	+$226.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.1¢	$210.96	—	-$200.17
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 47.2¢	$229.04	—	-$229.04	58% 37406-26644 (64050)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 38.1¢	$149.85	—	-$149.85	57% 11790-8783 (20573)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 70.3¢	$201.23	$215.09	+$13.86	60% 11985-7869 (19854)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.3¢	$151.26	$215.09	+$63.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.7¢	$49.97	—	-$49.97
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 63¢	$148.86	$158.07	+$9.21	49% 4998-5180 (10178)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63¢	$99.62	$158.07	+$58.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.3¢	$49.24	—	-$49.24
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$122.84	$105.62	-$17.22	56% 12251-9464 (21715)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.4¢	$73.34	$105.62	+$32.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 33¢	$49.5	—	-$49.5
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 87.6¢	$127.18	$111.4	-$15.78	55% 7185-5891 (13076)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.6¢	$97.63	$111.4	+$13.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.4¢	$29.55	—	-$29.55
13 13897651	Downavg 49¢	$89.32	$157.16	+$67.84	59% 6529-4520 (11049)
TH thesidehustle<$100	Downavg 87¢	$56.8	$60	+$3.2	54% 10483-8946 (19429)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 2.3¢	$4.29	—	-$4.29	46% 37909-44573 (82482)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 57¢	$34.2	—	-$34.2	65% 124345-66513 (190858)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 65.4¢	$29.35	$42.6	+$13.25	66% 124678-64187 (188865)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$27.3	$30.14	+$2.84	55% 17349-13981 (31330)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 85.6¢	$60.58	$70.81	+$10.23	55% 23661-19135 (42796)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$11	—	-$11	55% 8420-6860 (15280)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 66¢	$29.73	$45.05	+$15.32	57% 10156-7610 (17766)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 28.9¢	$19.89	—	-$19.89	52% 89477-83931 (173408)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 75¢	$22.67	$20	+$0.46	65% 21845-12018 (33863)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 25.8¢	$21.36	—	-$14.82	61% 94030-59124 (153154)
PA Parad0X<$100	Downavg 55¢	$2.8	$5.09	+$2.29	56% 2143-1679 (3822)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	56% 3625-2813 (6438)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a<$100	Downavg 51¢	$5.61	—	+$5.28	53% 1988-1792 (3780)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$732.64

Value

$745.39

PnL

+$12.75

Record

57%

7604-5835 (13439)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$514.97

Value

$572.17

PnL

+$57.2

Record

56%

13527-10798 (24325)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,203.95

Value

$467.33

PnL

+$25.99

Record

54%

14363-12179 (26542)

Both legs:

Down$312.2566.8¢+$226.17

Up$210.9631.1¢-$200.17

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$229.04

Value

—

PnL

-$229.04

Record

58%

37406-26644 (64050)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$149.85

Value

—

PnL

-$149.85

Record

57%

11790-8783 (20573)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$201.23

Value

$215.09

PnL

+$13.86

Record

60%

11985-7869 (19854)

Both legs:

Down$151.2670.3¢+$63.83

Up$49.9734.7¢-$49.97

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$148.86

Value

$158.07

PnL

+$9.21

Record

49%

4998-5180 (10178)

Both legs:

Down$99.6263¢+$58.45

Up$49.2430.3¢-$49.24

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$122.84

Value

$105.62

PnL

-$17.22

Record

56%

12251-9464 (21715)

Both legs:

Down$73.3469.4¢+$32.28

Up$49.533¢-$49.5

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$127.18

Value

$111.4

PnL

-$15.78

Record

55%

7185-5891 (13076)

Both legs:

Down$97.6387.6¢+$13.77

Up$29.5531.4¢-$29.55

13897651

Down

Invested

$89.32

Value

$157.16

PnL

+$67.84

Record

59%

6529-4520 (11049)

thesidehustle<$100

Down

Invested

$56.8

Value

$60

PnL

+$3.2

Record

54%

10483-8946 (19429)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$4.29

Value

—

PnL

-$4.29

Record

46%

37909-44573 (82482)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$34.2

Value

—

PnL

-$34.2

Record

65%

124345-66513 (190858)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$29.35

Value

$42.6

PnL

+$13.25

Record

66%

124678-64187 (188865)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$27.3

Value

$30.14

PnL

+$2.84

Record

55%

17349-13981 (31330)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$60.58

Value

$70.81

PnL

+$10.23

Record

55%

23661-19135 (42796)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$11

Value

—

PnL

-$11

Record

55%

8420-6860 (15280)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$29.73

Value

$45.05

PnL

+$15.32

Record

57%

10156-7610 (17766)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$19.89

Value

—

PnL

-$19.89

Record

52%

89477-83931 (173408)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$22.67

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.46

Record

65%

21845-12018 (33863)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$21.36

Value

—

PnL

-$14.82

Record

61%

94030-59124 (153154)

Parad0X<$100

Down

Invested

$2.8

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$2.29

Record

56%

2143-1679 (3822)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3625-2813 (6438)

0xdc27...afdd9a<$100

Down

Invested

$5.61

Value

—

PnL

+$5.28

Record

53%

1988-1792 (3780)

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 19 top traders (63%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x27286ff9...cbeff2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793219100

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Down — $745.39

+$12.75

GoodFallen

Down — $572.17

+$57.2

tmsd-test

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$25.99

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

EZTRADENL2

Up — $0

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$15.78

13897651

Down — $157.16

+$67.84

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