Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$8.71

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 15 top traders (47%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,275

Combined PnL+$256.92

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares543

Combined PnL-$248.21

Down — 47%Up — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 63.8¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$78.82	56% 13527-10798 (24325)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.2¢	$442.79	$1.4K	+$932.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.8¢	$854.15	—	-$854.15
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 32.2¢	$910.5	$748.4	-$162.11	77% 9292-2740 (12032)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.2¢	$546.25	—	-$546.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.7¢	$364.25	$748.4	+$384.15
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 55.1¢	$841.86	$768.73	-$73.13	49% 4998-5180 (10178)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.1¢	$553.92	—	-$553.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.5¢	$287.94	$768.73	+$480.79
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 55.9¢	$736.81	$770.65	+$33.83	56% 12251-9464 (21715)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.4¢	$280.14	$770.65	+$490.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.9¢	$456.67	—	-$456.67
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$785.07	$793	+$7.93	93% 22666-1735 (24401)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 59.3¢	$724.53	$647.62	-$76.91	60% 11985-7869 (19854)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.3¢	$443.57	—	-$443.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.4¢	$280.96	$647.62	+$366.66
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Upavg 73.8¢	$1.4K	$862.73	+$280.04	54% 14363-12179 (26542)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31¢	$267.63	$862.73	+$584.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.8¢	$269.71	—	-$304.9
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$676.33	$607.15	-$69.18	57% 7604-5835 (13439)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.5¢	$354.99	$607.15	+$252.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.3¢	$321.34	—	-$321.34
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 60.2¢	$480.81	$398.51	-$82.3	57% 11790-8783 (20573)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.2¢	$314.79	—	-$314.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.7¢	$166.01	$398.51	+$232.49
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 46.4¢	$443.63	$494.24	+$54.22	55% 7185-5891 (13076)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.4¢	$229.34	$494.24	+$264.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.8¢	$210.8	—	-$210.69
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 43.2¢	$236.67	$170.99	-$65.68	58% 37406-26644 (64050)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.2¢	$203.86	—	-$203.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.2¢	$32.81	$170.99	+$138.18
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 46.3¢	$18.88	$27.3	+$8.42	52% 89477-83931 (173408)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 73.9¢	$208.3	$85.15	-$123.14	55% 23661-19135 (42796)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.9¢	$176.12	—	-$176.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.8¢	$32.18	$85.15	+$52.98
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$117	$127.17	+$10.17	66% 124678-64187 (188865)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31¢	$52.81	—	-$52.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$64.19	$127.17	+$62.98
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$13.27	—	+$9.5	61% 94030-59124 (153154)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 49¢	$90.06	$153.35	+$63.28	58% 60145-43906 (104051)
machinelearned	Downavg 23.5¢	$35.42	$127.81	+$92.39	55% 8420-6860 (15280)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 86.1¢	$72.87	$60	-$12.87	54% 10483-8946 (19429)
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.1¢	$67.47	—	-$67.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 9¢	$5.4	$60	+$54.6
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 60.4¢	$57.2	—	-$57.2	59% 6529-4520 (11049)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 84¢	$69	—	-$69	65% 124345-66513 (190858)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 85¢	$65.5	—	-$65.5	55% 17349-13981 (31330)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$48.01	—	-$48.01	58% 50806-36950 (87756)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 96¢	$54.72	$57	+$2.28	55% 44184-36684 (80868)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 26¢	$26.1	$100.38	+$74.28	56% 57617-44504 (102121)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 88¢	$14.91	—	-$14.91	65% 21845-12018 (33863)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$1,296.94

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$78.82

Record

56%

13527-10798 (24325)

Both legs:

Down$442.7932.2¢+$932.98

Up$854.1563.8¢-$854.15

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$910.5

Value

$748.4

PnL

-$162.11

Record

77%

9292-2740 (12032)

Both legs:

Up$546.2532.2¢-$546.25

Down$364.2548.7¢+$384.15

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$841.86

Value

$768.73

PnL

-$73.13

Record

49%

4998-5180 (10178)

Both legs:

Up$553.9255.1¢-$553.92

Down$287.9437.5¢+$480.79

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$736.81

Value

$770.65

PnL

+$33.83

Record

56%

12251-9464 (21715)

Both legs:

Down$280.1436.4¢+$490.5

Up$456.6755.9¢-$456.67

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$785.07

Value

$793

PnL

+$7.93

Record

93%

22666-1735 (24401)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$724.53

Value

$647.62

PnL

-$76.91

Record

60%

11985-7869 (19854)

Both legs:

Up$443.5759.3¢-$443.57

Down$280.9643.4¢+$366.66

tmsd-testARB<$100

Invested

$1,364.12

Value

$862.73

PnL

+$280.04

Record

54%

14363-12179 (26542)

Both legs:

Down$267.6331¢+$584.94

Up$269.7173.8¢-$304.9

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$676.33

Value

$607.15

PnL

-$69.18

Record

57%

7604-5835 (13439)

Both legs:

Down$354.9958.5¢+$252.16

Up$321.3468.3¢-$321.34

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$480.81

Value

$398.51

PnL

-$82.3

Record

57%

11790-8783 (20573)

Both legs:

Up$314.7960.2¢-$314.79

Down$166.0141.7¢+$232.49

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$443.63

Value

$494.24

PnL

+$54.22

Record

55%

7185-5891 (13076)

Both legs:

Down$229.3446.4¢+$264.91

Up$210.869.8¢-$210.69

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$236.67

Value

$170.99

PnL

-$65.68

Record

58%

37406-26644 (64050)

Both legs:

Up$203.8643.2¢-$203.86

Down$32.8119.2¢+$138.18

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$18.88

Value

$27.3

PnL

+$8.42

Record

52%

89477-83931 (173408)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$208.3

Value

$85.15

PnL

-$123.14

Record

55%

23661-19135 (42796)

Both legs:

Up$176.1273.9¢-$176.12

Down$32.1837.8¢+$52.98

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$117

Value

$127.17

PnL

+$10.17

Record

66%

124678-64187 (188865)

Both legs:

Up$52.8131¢-$52.81

Down$64.1950.5¢+$62.98

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$13.27

Value

—

PnL

+$9.5

Record

61%

94030-59124 (153154)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$90.06

Value

$153.35

PnL

+$63.28

Record

58%

60145-43906 (104051)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$35.42

Value

$127.81

PnL

+$92.39

Record

55%

8420-6860 (15280)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$72.87

Value

$60

PnL

-$12.87

Record

54%

10483-8946 (19429)

Both legs:

Up$67.4786.1¢-$67.47

Down$5.49¢+$54.6

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$57.2

Value

—

PnL

-$57.2

Record

59%

6529-4520 (11049)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$69

Value

—

PnL

-$69

Record

65%

124345-66513 (190858)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$65.5

Value

—

PnL

-$65.5

Record

55%

17349-13981 (31330)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$48.01

Value

—

PnL

-$48.01

Record

58%

50806-36950 (87756)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$54.72

Value

$57

PnL

+$2.28

Record

55%

44184-36684 (80868)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$26.1

Value

$100.38

PnL

+$74.28

Record

56%

57617-44504 (102121)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$14.91

Value

—

PnL

-$14.91

Record

65%

21845-12018 (33863)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 15 top traders (47%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x681f5416...968003

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793218800

Traders in this Market

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $793

+$7.93

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

tmsd-test

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$54.22

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