Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Down 63%
3 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$283.32
Smart Money Signal
12 of 20 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $404.1 | $408.18 | +$4.08 | 93% 22666-1735 (24401) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 82.8¢ | $307.37 | $341.33 | +$33.96 | 57% 7604-5835 (13439) |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Downavg 78.1¢ | $358.14 | $230.74 | -$111.18 | 54% 14363-12179 (26542) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 78.1¢ | $180.2 | $230.74 | +$50.54 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21.3¢ | $155.53 | — | -$161.71 | |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 76.3¢ | $163.43 | $202.07 | +$38.64 | 56% 12251-9464 (21715) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Upavg 28.9¢ | $65.66 | — | -$65.66 | 57% 11790-8783 (20573) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Downavg 76.5¢ | $98.11 | $87.99 | -$10.12 | 55% 7185-5891 (13076) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.3¢ | $30.8 | — | -$30.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 76.5¢ | $67.32 | $87.99 | +$20.68 | |
SI sir-upalot | Downavg 73.4¢ | $98.07 | $112.93 | +$14.86 | 55% 23661-19135 (42796) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 64.9¢ | $78.83 | $80.81 | +$1.98 | 56% 13527-10798 (24325) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.9¢ | $52.43 | $80.81 | +$28.38 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.1¢ | $26.39 | — | -$26.39 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 41.2¢ | $226.57 | — | -$226.57 | 58% 37406-26644 (64050) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 96.5¢ | $79.34 | $59.99 | -$19.35 | 49% 4998-5180 (10178) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $67.48 | $60 | -$7.48 | 54% 10483-8946 (19429) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $21.12 | — | -$21.12 | 60% 11985-7869 (19854) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.4¢ | $59.01 | — | -$26.01 | 59% 6529-4520 (11049) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $36.85 | $25 | -$11.85 | 55% 8420-6860 (15280) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 90.6¢ | $23.61 | $26.06 | +$2.45 | 66% 124678-64187 (188865) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $4.22 | — | -$4.22 | 59% 62001-43068 (105069) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 73.5¢ | $10.35 | $10.41 | +$0.06 | 55% 17349-13981 (31330) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $15.4 | $20.26 | +$4.86 | 65% 124345-66513 (190858) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $1.01 | — | -$1.01 | 46% 37909-44573 (82482) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $7.92 | $8 | +$0.08 | 61% 94030-59124 (153154) |
PA Parad0X<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $3 | $5.26 | +$2.26 | 56% 2143-1679 (3822) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $1.3 | — | -$1.3 | 52% 89477-83931 (173408) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3625-2813 (6438) |
Invested
$404.1
Value
$408.18
PnL
+$4.08
Record
93%
22666-1735 (24401)
Invested
$307.37
Value
$341.33
PnL
+$33.96
Record
57%
7604-5835 (13439)
Invested
$358.14
Value
$230.74
PnL
-$111.18
Record
54%
14363-12179 (26542)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$163.43
Value
$202.07
PnL
+$38.64
Record
56%
12251-9464 (21715)
Invested
$65.66
Value
—
PnL
-$65.66
Record
57%
11790-8783 (20573)
Invested
$98.11
Value
$87.99
PnL
-$10.12
Record
55%
7185-5891 (13076)
Both legs:
Invested
$98.07
Value
$112.93
PnL
+$14.86
Record
55%
23661-19135 (42796)
Invested
$78.83
Value
$80.81
PnL
+$1.98
Record
56%
13527-10798 (24325)
Both legs:
Invested
$226.57
Value
—
PnL
-$226.57
Record
58%
37406-26644 (64050)
Invested
$79.34
Value
$59.99
PnL
-$19.35
Record
49%
4998-5180 (10178)
Invested
$67.48
Value
$60
PnL
-$7.48
Record
54%
10483-8946 (19429)
Invested
$21.12
Value
—
PnL
-$21.12
Record
60%
11985-7869 (19854)
Invested
$59.01
Value
—
PnL
-$26.01
Record
59%
6529-4520 (11049)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$36.85
Value
$25
PnL
-$11.85
Record
55%
8420-6860 (15280)
Invested
$23.61
Value
$26.06
PnL
+$2.45
Record
66%
124678-64187 (188865)
Invested
$4.22
Value
—
PnL
-$4.22
Record
59%
62001-43068 (105069)
Invested
$10.35
Value
$10.41
PnL
+$0.06
Record
55%
17349-13981 (31330)
Invested
$15.4
Value
$20.26
PnL
+$4.86
Record
65%
124345-66513 (190858)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.01
Value
—
PnL
-$1.01
Record
46%
37909-44573 (82482)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.08
Record
61%
94030-59124 (153154)
Invested
$3
Value
$5.26
PnL
+$2.26
Record
56%
2143-1679 (3822)
Invested
$1.3
Value
—
PnL
-$1.3
Record
52%
89477-83931 (173408)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3625-2813 (6438)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $408.18
wzbbb
Down — $341.33
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded
FairValueMachine
Down — $202.07
EZTRADENL2
CTRUp — $0
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
ARBArbitrage — excluded
sir-upalot
Down — $112.93
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
Down — $59.99