Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

-$236.74

Smart Money Signal

24 of 30 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up24 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares5,886

Combined PnL+$386.7

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,532

Combined PnL-$623.44

Up — 80%Down — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 93.2¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$49.36	57% 7604-5835 (13439)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$33.02	93% 22666-1735 (24401)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$941.45	$950.96	+$9.51	56% 29252-23027 (52279)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 65¢	$392.91	$448.7	+$55.79	56% 14155-11105 (25260)
TE TelawinCTR	Downavg 55.4¢	$500	—	-$500	51% 339-327 (666)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$505.88	$322.63	+$15.63	54% 14363-12179 (26542)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.6¢	$172.85	$322.63	+$177.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.4¢	$161.93	—	-$161.93
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 28.4¢	$282.5	$135.08	-$147.42	58% 37406-26644 (64050)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44¢	$59.44	$135.08	+$75.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.4¢	$223.06	—	-$223.06
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 62.1¢	$186.46	$185.18	-$1.28	56% 13527-10798 (24325)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 75.2¢	$147	$195.51	+$48.52	55% 17349-13981 (31330)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 67.2¢	$153.31	$152.41	-$0.9	49% 4998-5180 (10178)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 61.4¢	$136.18	$196.32	+$60.15	56% 12251-9464 (21715)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 92.8¢	$134.73	$139.51	+$4.79	55% 7185-5891 (13076)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 85.2¢	$143.96	$138.4	-$1.8	60% 11985-7869 (19854)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 88.9¢	$124.39	$139.99	+$15.6	57% 10156-7610 (17766)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 84.9¢	$85.96	$101.21	+$15.25	51% 16948-16526 (33474)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 69.5¢	$31.79	$45.73	+$13.94	66% 124678-64187 (188865)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 64.7¢	$38.84	$60	+$21.16	65% 124345-66513 (190858)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$42.08	$58.48	+$16.4	59% 6529-4520 (11049)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 75.4¢	$31.21	$41.4	+$10.19	61% 94030-59124 (153154)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$71.93	—	-$71.93	57% 11790-8783 (20573)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 74.1¢	$29.57	$32.19	+$2.62	52% 89477-83931 (173408)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 85.3¢	$22.2	$26.03	+$3.83	55% 23661-19135 (42796)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 76¢	$18.23	$23.99	+$5.76	55% 44184-36684 (80868)
LI Little-big<$100	Upavg 50¢	$16.5	$33	+$16.5	34% 18536-35559 (54095)
wowitsamazing<$100	Upavg 67¢	$8	$11.94	+$3.94	58% 12517-9161 (21678)

wzbbb

Invested

$1,508.25

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$49.36

Record

57%

7604-5835 (13439)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,301.97

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$33.02

Record

93%

22666-1735 (24401)

THG.

Invested

$941.45

Value

$950.96

PnL

+$9.51

Record

56%

29252-23027 (52279)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$392.91

Value

$448.7

PnL

+$55.79

Record

56%

14155-11105 (25260)

TelawinCTR

Down

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

51%

339-327 (666)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Invested

$505.88

Value

$322.63

PnL

+$15.63

Record

54%

14363-12179 (26542)

Both legs:

Up$172.8553.6¢+$177.56

Down$161.9319.4¢-$161.93

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$282.5

Value

$135.08

PnL

-$147.42

Record

58%

37406-26644 (64050)

Both legs:

Up$59.4444¢+$75.65

Down$223.0628.4¢-$223.06

GoodFallen

Invested

$186.46

Value

$185.18

PnL

-$1.28

Record

56%

13527-10798 (24325)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$147

Value

$195.51

PnL

+$48.52

Record

55%

17349-13981 (31330)

ply-pm0

Invested

$153.31

Value

$152.41

PnL

-$0.9

Record

49%

4998-5180 (10178)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$136.18

Value

$196.32

PnL

+$60.15

Record

56%

12251-9464 (21715)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$134.73

Value

$139.51

PnL

+$4.79

Record

55%

7185-5891 (13076)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$143.96

Value

$138.4

PnL

-$1.8

Record

60%

11985-7869 (19854)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$124.39

Value

$139.99

PnL

+$15.6

Record

57%

10156-7610 (17766)

gansinimen

Invested

$85.96

Value

$101.21

PnL

+$15.25

Record

51%

16948-16526 (33474)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$31.79

Value

$45.73

PnL

+$13.94

Record

66%

124678-64187 (188865)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$38.84

Value

$60

PnL

+$21.16

Record

65%

124345-66513 (190858)

13897651<$100

Invested

$42.08

Value

$58.48

PnL

+$16.4

Record

59%

6529-4520 (11049)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$31.21

Value

$41.4

PnL

+$10.19

Record

61%

94030-59124 (153154)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$71.93

Value

—

PnL

-$71.93

Record

57%

11790-8783 (20573)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$29.57

Value

$32.19

PnL

+$2.62

Record

52%

89477-83931 (173408)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$22.2

Value

$26.03

PnL

+$3.83

Record

55%

23661-19135 (42796)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$18.23

Value

$23.99

PnL

+$5.76

Record

55%

44184-36684 (80868)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$16.5

Value

$33

PnL

+$16.5

Record

34%

18536-35559 (54095)

wowitsamazing<$100

Invested

Value

$11.94

PnL

+$3.94

Record

58%

12517-9161 (21678)

Smart Money Signal

24 of 30 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x68a35b21...5b5311

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793217300

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Up — $1.6K

+$49.36

hoodquant

Up — $1.3K

+$33.02

THG.

Up — $950.96

+$9.51

CrouchPredictions

Up — $448.7

Telawin

Down — $0

tmsd-test

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$147.42

GoodFallen

Up — $185.18

-$1.28

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $195.51

+$48.52

ply-pm0

Up — $152.41

-$0.9

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