Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
27
Up 73%
2 arb excluded
$3.5K
-$902.87
Smart Money Signal
20 of 27 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 87.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$40.17 | 57% 7595-5825 (13420) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $365.31 | $369 | +$3.69 | 93% 22640-1735 (24375) |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Downavg 36¢ | $724.5 | — | -$435.86 | 54% 14359-12176 (26535) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 65.1¢ | $300.8 | $279.68 | -$21.12 | 66% 98656-51035 (149691) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 62.8¢ | $223.25 | $284.1 | +$60.85 | 55% 7173-5882 (13055) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 53.5¢ | $282.25 | — | -$282.25 | 56% 13515-10791 (24306) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 21.8¢ | $223.26 | — | -$223.26 | 56% 14140-11096 (25236) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 66.2¢ | $214.23 | $230 | +$15.77 | 56% 12236-9461 (21697) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 91.3¢ | $217.18 | $215.39 | -$1.79 | 54% 10468-8936 (19404) |
ST std0 | Upavg 90.1¢ | $176.53 | $155.98 | -$20.54 | 67% 53149-26561 (79710) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 65.4¢ | $86.4 | $128.01 | +$41.61 | 55% 17309-13927 (31236) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 91¢ | $141.03 | $88 | -$53.03 | 60% 11977-7856 (19833) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 78.4¢ | $98.65 | $89.7 | -$8.95 | 49% 4990-5166 (10156) |
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100 | Downavg 37.1¢ | $65.13 | $52.62 | -$12.51 | 57% 11780-8773 (20553) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.1¢ | $44.15 | — | -$44.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.9¢ | $20.98 | $52.62 | +$31.65 | |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.4¢ | $86.49 | $94.99 | +$8.5 | 59% 6517-4510 (11027) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $46.94 | $94.99 | +$48.05 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.6¢ | $39.55 | — | -$39.55 | |
GA gansinimen<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $91.09 | $63.76 | -$27.33 | 51% 16944-16523 (33467) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $31.3 | $36.84 | +$5.54 | 65% 21769-11955 (33724) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $25.2 | $20 | -$5.2 | 57% 10140-7604 (17744) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 45.6¢ | $7.89 | $12.11 | +$4.22 | 52% 89438-83891 (173329) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 70.6¢ | $15.53 | $22 | +$6.47 | 66% 124638-64161 (188799) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $10.97 | — | -$10.97 | 56% 57606-44494 (102100) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $3.45 | — | -$3.45 | 59% 61993-43042 (105035) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $7.65 | $15 | +$7.35 | 55% 44146-36636 (80782) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $4.48 | $3.16 | +$2.28 | 61% 93995-59086 (153081) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $2.35 | $7.35 | +$5 | 55% 8413-6845 (15258) |
Invested
$1,304.19
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$40.17
Record
57%
7595-5825 (13420)
Invested
$365.31
Value
$369
PnL
+$3.69
Record
93%
22640-1735 (24375)
Invested
$724.5
Value
—
PnL
-$435.86
Record
54%
14359-12176 (26535)
Invested
$300.8
Value
$279.68
PnL
-$21.12
Record
66%
98656-51035 (149691)
Invested
$223.25
Value
$284.1
PnL
+$60.85
Record
55%
7173-5882 (13055)
Invested
$282.25
Value
—
PnL
-$282.25
Record
56%
13515-10791 (24306)
Invested
$223.26
Value
—
PnL
-$223.26
Record
56%
14140-11096 (25236)
FairValueMachineInvested
$214.23
Value
$230
PnL
+$15.77
Record
56%
12236-9461 (21697)
Invested
$217.18
Value
$215.39
PnL
-$1.79
Record
54%
10468-8936 (19404)
Invested
$176.53
Value
$155.98
PnL
-$20.54
Record
67%
53149-26561 (79710)
Invested
$86.4
Value
$128.01
PnL
+$41.61
Record
55%
17309-13927 (31236)
Invested
$141.03
Value
$88
PnL
-$53.03
Record
60%
11977-7856 (19833)
Invested
$98.65
Value
$89.7
PnL
-$8.95
Record
49%
4990-5166 (10156)
Invested
$65.13
Value
$52.62
PnL
-$12.51
Record
57%
11780-8773 (20553)
Both legs:
Invested
$86.49
Value
$94.99
PnL
+$8.5
Record
59%
6517-4510 (11027)
Both legs:
Invested
$91.09
Value
$63.76
PnL
-$27.33
Record
51%
16944-16523 (33467)
Invested
$31.3
Value
$36.84
PnL
+$5.54
Record
65%
21769-11955 (33724)
Invested
$25.2
Value
$20
PnL
-$5.2
Record
57%
10140-7604 (17744)
Invested
$7.89
Value
$12.11
PnL
+$4.22
Record
52%
89438-83891 (173329)
Invested
$15.53
Value
$22
PnL
+$6.47
Record
66%
124638-64161 (188799)
Invested
$10.97
Value
—
PnL
-$10.97
Record
56%
57606-44494 (102100)
Invested
$3.45
Value
—
PnL
-$3.45
Record
59%
61993-43042 (105035)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$7.65
Value
$15
PnL
+$7.35
Record
55%
44146-36636 (80782)
Invested
$4.48
Value
$3.16
PnL
+$2.28
Record
61%
93995-59086 (153081)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$2.35
Value
$7.35
PnL
+$5
Record
55%
8413-6845 (15258)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
wzbbb
Up — $1.3K
hoodquant
Up — $369
tmsd-test
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $279.68
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $284.1
GoodFallen
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
FairValueMachine
Up — $230
thesidehustle
Up — $215.39
std0
Up — $155.98