Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET

Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$937.6

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 22 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares3,969

Combined PnL+$606.88

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,222

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Down — 55%Up — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$24.26	93% 22640-1735 (24375)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 46.8¢	$660.49	$1.4K	+$749.54	58% 37384-26627 (64011)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 33.6¢	$869.14	—	-$869.14	66% 98656-51035 (149691)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 63.4¢	$345.77	$357.99	+$12.22	57% 7595-5825 (13420)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 59.7¢	$355.82	$327.93	-$27.89	56% 13515-10791 (24306)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.5¢	$160.2	—	-$160.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.7¢	$195.62	$327.93	+$132.31
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 85.1¢	$436.22	$291.75	-$144.47	56% 14140-11096 (25236)
TM tmsd-testCTR	Upavg 40.1¢	$1.1K	—	-$449.04	54% 14359-12176 (26535)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 45.2¢	$162.68	$90	-$72.68	56% 12236-9461 (21697)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.2¢	$108.38	—	-$108.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.3¢	$54.3	$90	+$35.7
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 52.4¢	$149.81	$240.31	+$90.5	57% 11780-8773 (20553)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.4¢	$125.96	$240.31	+$114.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 36¢	$23.85	—	-$23.85
ST std0	Downavg 87.5¢	$145.68	$133.36	-$12.32	67% 53149-26561 (79710)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 68.9¢	$136.25	$172.84	+$36.59	55% 17309-13927 (31236)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 77.1¢	$123.72	$88.99	-$34.73	60% 11977-7856 (19833)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 73.6¢	$98.68	$78.34	-$20.34	49% 4990-5166 (10156)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$78.81	—	-$78.81	34% 18536-35559 (54095)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Upavg 48¢	$69.12	$74	+$4.88	56% 57606-44494 (102100)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$35.08	—	-$35.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 46¢	$34.04	$74	+$39.96
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 82.5¢	$84.55	$81.39	-$3.17	66% 124638-64161 (188799)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$55.22	—	-$55.22	59% 6517-4510 (11027)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 95.7¢	$57.93	$49.99	-$6.49	61% 93995-59086 (153081)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$40.07	—	-$40.07	58% 50801-36942 (87743)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 94.5¢	$85.42	$90.43	+$5.01	55% 7173-5882 (13055)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 54.3¢	$33	—	-$33	51% 19801-18940 (38741)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$6.15	—	-$6.15	55% 23650-19128 (42778)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 79¢	$2.95	$3.74	+$0.79	55% 8413-6845 (15258)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 4.4¢	$6.37	—	-$6.37	46% 37893-44550 (82443)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 17.2¢	$6.69	—	-$6.69	52% 89438-83891 (173329)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,185.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$24.26

Record

93%

22640-1735 (24375)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$660.49

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$749.54

Record

58%

37384-26627 (64011)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$869.14

Value

—

PnL

-$869.14

Record

66%

98656-51035 (149691)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$345.77

Value

$357.99

PnL

+$12.22

Record

57%

7595-5825 (13420)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$355.82

Value

$327.93

PnL

-$27.89

Record

56%

13515-10791 (24306)

Both legs:

Up$160.242.5¢-$160.2

Down$195.6259.7¢+$132.31

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$436.22

Value

$291.75

PnL

-$144.47

Record

56%

14140-11096 (25236)

tmsd-testCTR

Invested

$1,115.55

Value

—

PnL

-$449.04

Record

54%

14359-12176 (26535)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$162.68

Value

$90

PnL

-$72.68

Record

56%

12236-9461 (21697)

Both legs:

Up$108.3845.2¢-$108.38

Down$54.360.3¢+$35.7

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$149.81

Value

$240.31

PnL

+$90.5

Record

57%

11780-8773 (20553)

Both legs:

Down$125.9652.4¢+$114.35

Up$23.8536¢-$23.85

std0

Down

Invested

$145.68

Value

$133.36

PnL

-$12.32

Record

67%

53149-26561 (79710)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$136.25

Value

$172.84

PnL

+$36.59

Record

55%

17309-13927 (31236)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$123.72

Value

$88.99

PnL

-$34.73

Record

60%

11977-7856 (19833)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$98.68

Value

$78.34

PnL

-$20.34

Record

49%

4990-5166 (10156)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$78.81

Value

—

PnL

-$78.81

Record

34%

18536-35559 (54095)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Invested

$69.12

Value

$74

PnL

+$4.88

Record

56%

57606-44494 (102100)

Both legs:

Invested

$84.55

Value

$81.39

PnL

-$3.17

Record

66%

124638-64161 (188799)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$55.22

Value

—

PnL

-$55.22

Record

59%

6517-4510 (11027)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$57.93

Value

$49.99

PnL

-$6.49

Record

61%

93995-59086 (153081)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$40.07

Value

—

PnL

-$40.07

Record

58%

50801-36942 (87743)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$85.42

Value

$90.43

PnL

+$5.01

Record

55%

7173-5882 (13055)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$33

Value

—

PnL

-$33

Record

51%

19801-18940 (38741)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$6.15

Value

—

PnL

-$6.15

Record

55%

23650-19128 (42778)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$2.95

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$0.79

Record

55%

8413-6845 (15258)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$6.37

Value

—

PnL

-$6.37

Record

46%

37893-44550 (82443)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$6.69

Value

—

PnL

-$6.69

Record

52%

89438-83891 (173329)

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 22 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf719697b...aa0540

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793216100

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.2K

+$24.26

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $1.4K

+$749.54

Bonereaper

CTR

Up — $0

-$869.14

wzbbb

Down — $357.99

+$12.22

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$27.89

CrouchPredictions

Down — $291.75

tmsd-test

Up — $0

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Down — $133.36

-$12.32

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