Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
Resolved Up. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Up 92%
2 arb excluded
$6.6K
$800.52
Smart Money Signal
23 of 26 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 91.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$37.98 | 57% 7595-5825 (13420) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 70.7¢ | $968.25 | $1.1K | +$177.52 | 66% 98656-51035 (149691) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$31.03 | 93% 22640-1735 (24375) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 62.3¢ | $407.35 | $351.55 | -$55.81 | 56% 14140-11096 (25236) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.3¢ | $219.13 | $351.55 | +$132.42 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 25.4¢ | $188.22 | — | -$188.22 | |
TM tmsd-test | Upavg 68.1¢ | $1.0K | $362.61 | +$44.9 | 54% 14359-12176 (26535) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 66.3¢ | $170.61 | $257.44 | +$86.83 | 57% 11780-8773 (20553) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 65.5¢ | $219.24 | $185 | -$34.24 | 56% 13515-10791 (24306) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.5¢ | $121.25 | $185 | +$63.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.6¢ | $97.99 | — | -$97.99 | |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 64¢ | $131 | $200 | +$69 | 51% 16944-16523 (33467) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 53.3¢ | $181.07 | $339.57 | +$158.5 | 34% 18536-35559 (54095) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 66.3¢ | $128.3 | $190 | +$61.69 | 56% 12236-9461 (21697) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 99¢ | $153.6 | $150.08 | -$3.52 | 56% 57606-44494 (102100) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 80.4¢ | $134.55 | $110.16 | -$24.39 | 60% 11977-7856 (19833) |
SI sir-upalot | Upavg 83.8¢ | $103.95 | $112.38 | +$8.43 | 55% 23650-19128 (42778) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 58¢ | $71.79 | $122.01 | +$50.23 | 55% 7173-5882 (13055) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 76.9¢ | $75.75 | $97.19 | +$21.44 | 55% 17309-13927 (31236) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 77.1¢ | $52.17 | $56.25 | +$4.08 | 55% 8413-6845 (15258) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 66.8¢ | $44.07 | $66 | +$21.93 | 55% 44146-36636 (80782) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 65.8¢ | $46.13 | $58.02 | +$11.89 | 49% 4990-5166 (10156) |
13 13897651 | Upavg 55.6¢ | $56.12 | $100.98 | +$44.86 | 59% 6517-4510 (11027) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 69.2¢ | $32.73 | $47.28 | +$14.55 | 66% 124638-64161 (188799) |
ST std0<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $32.23 | $24.05 | -$8.18 | 67% 53149-26561 (79710) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 76.6¢ | $34.19 | $27.43 | +$4.82 | 61% 93995-59086 (153081) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 12¢ | $18.01 | — | -$18.01 | 64% 39732-22693 (62425) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $14.63 | $19 | +$4.37 | 58% 37384-26627 (64011) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $15.21 | $16.18 | +$0.97 | 65% 21769-11955 (33724) |
Invested
$1,441.23
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$37.98
Record
57%
7595-5825 (13420)
Invested
$968.25
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$177.52
Record
66%
98656-51035 (149691)
Invested
$1,000.31
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$31.03
Record
93%
22640-1735 (24375)
Invested
$407.35
Value
$351.55
PnL
-$55.81
Record
56%
14140-11096 (25236)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,004.3
Value
$362.61
PnL
+$44.9
Record
54%
14359-12176 (26535)
Invested
$170.61
Value
$257.44
PnL
+$86.83
Record
57%
11780-8773 (20553)
Invested
$219.24
Value
$185
PnL
-$34.24
Record
56%
13515-10791 (24306)
Both legs:
Invested
$131
Value
$200
PnL
+$69
Record
51%
16944-16523 (33467)
Invested
$181.07
Value
$339.57
PnL
+$158.5
Record
34%
18536-35559 (54095)
FairValueMachineInvested
$128.3
Value
$190
PnL
+$61.69
Record
56%
12236-9461 (21697)
Invested
$153.6
Value
$150.08
PnL
-$3.52
Record
56%
57606-44494 (102100)
Invested
$134.55
Value
$110.16
PnL
-$24.39
Record
60%
11977-7856 (19833)
Invested
$103.95
Value
$112.38
PnL
+$8.43
Record
55%
23650-19128 (42778)
Invested
$71.79
Value
$122.01
PnL
+$50.23
Record
55%
7173-5882 (13055)
Invested
$75.75
Value
$97.19
PnL
+$21.44
Record
55%
17309-13927 (31236)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$52.17
Value
$56.25
PnL
+$4.08
Record
55%
8413-6845 (15258)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$44.07
Value
$66
PnL
+$21.93
Record
55%
44146-36636 (80782)
Invested
$46.13
Value
$58.02
PnL
+$11.89
Record
49%
4990-5166 (10156)
Invested
$56.12
Value
$100.98
PnL
+$44.86
Record
59%
6517-4510 (11027)
Invested
$32.73
Value
$47.28
PnL
+$14.55
Record
66%
124638-64161 (188799)
Invested
$32.23
Value
$24.05
PnL
-$8.18
Record
67%
53149-26561 (79710)
Invested
$34.19
Value
$27.43
PnL
+$4.82
Record
61%
93995-59086 (153081)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$18.01
Value
—
PnL
-$18.01
Record
64%
39732-22693 (62425)
Invested
$14.63
Value
$19
PnL
+$4.37
Record
58%
37384-26627 (64011)
Invested
$15.21
Value
$16.18
PnL
+$0.97
Record
65%
21769-11955 (33724)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
wzbbb
Up — $1.5K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.1K
hoodquant
Up — $1.0K
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
Up — $362.61
EZTRADENL2
Up — $257.44
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
gansinimen
Up — $200
Little-big
Up — $339.57
FairValueMachine
Up — $190