Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Up 69%
2 arb excluded
$7.8K
$-1.2K
Smart Money Signal
20 of 30 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 58.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$17.36 | 56% 13515-10791 (24306) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$32.99 | 93% 22640-1735 (24375) |
TM tmsd-test | Upavg 60.8¢ | $1.7K | $813.54 | -$123.69 | 54% 14359-12176 (26535) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 85.2¢ | $719.99 | $844.99 | +$125 | 77% 9290-2736 (12026) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 36.9¢ | $669.81 | — | -$669.81 | 66% 98656-51035 (149691) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 60.8¢ | $577.83 | $570.27 | -$7.56 | 56% 12236-9461 (21697) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 62.8¢ | $531.6 | $565.42 | +$33.82 | 57% 11780-8773 (20553) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 74.7¢ | $517.59 | $505.97 | -$11.62 | 56% 14140-11096 (25236) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 75.2¢ | $545.03 | $518.71 | -$26.32 | 49% 4990-5166 (10156) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 57.9¢ | $356.66 | $436.18 | +$81.82 | 60% 11977-7856 (19833) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 42.1¢ | $417.15 | — | -$417.15 | 57% 7595-5825 (13420) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Downavg 48.1¢ | $321.17 | — | -$321.17 | 55% 7173-5882 (13055) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 52.5¢ | $113.01 | $196.53 | +$83.52 | 58% 37384-26627 (64011) |
SI sir-upalot | Upavg 72.8¢ | $149.05 | $158.24 | +$9.18 | 55% 23650-19128 (42778) |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Downavg 59.9¢ | $196.63 | $98.02 | -$98.62 | 57% 10140-7604 (17744) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.6¢ | $64.25 | $98.02 | +$33.77 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.9¢ | $132.38 | — | -$132.38 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100 | Upavg 52.8¢ | $87.65 | $89.31 | +$1.66 | 55% 17309-13927 (31236) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.5¢ | $40.5 | — | -$40.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.8¢ | $47.15 | $89.31 | +$42.16 | |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $65.95 | $67.99 | +$2.04 | 55% 44146-36636 (80782) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $45.13 | — | -$45.13 | 56% 57606-44494 (102100) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $56.15 | — | -$56.15 | 58% 60135-43896 (104031) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Upavg 50.4¢ | $43.84 | $87 | +$43.16 | 34% 18536-35559 (54095) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 45.9¢ | $22.26 | $48.52 | +$26.26 | 51% 19801-18940 (38741) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 47.6¢ | $39.34 | $81.74 | +$42.39 | 59% 6517-4510 (11027) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 32.3¢ | $24.29 | $37.24 | +$18.28 | 61% 93995-59086 (153081) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 31.1¢ | $27.88 | — | -$27.88 | 52% 89438-83891 (173329) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 37.9¢ | $26.71 | $45.9 | +$19.19 | 66% 124638-64161 (188799) |
Invested
$1,385.44
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$17.36
Record
56%
13515-10791 (24306)
Invested
$1,188.01
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$32.99
Record
93%
22640-1735 (24375)
Invested
$1,651.86
Value
$813.54
PnL
-$123.69
Record
54%
14359-12176 (26535)
NIULAI4Invested
$719.99
Value
$844.99
PnL
+$125
Record
77%
9290-2736 (12026)
Invested
$669.81
Value
—
PnL
-$669.81
Record
66%
98656-51035 (149691)
FairValueMachineInvested
$577.83
Value
$570.27
PnL
-$7.56
Record
56%
12236-9461 (21697)
Invested
$531.6
Value
$565.42
PnL
+$33.82
Record
57%
11780-8773 (20553)
Invested
$517.59
Value
$505.97
PnL
-$11.62
Record
56%
14140-11096 (25236)
Invested
$545.03
Value
$518.71
PnL
-$26.32
Record
49%
4990-5166 (10156)
Invested
$356.66
Value
$436.18
PnL
+$81.82
Record
60%
11977-7856 (19833)
Invested
$417.15
Value
—
PnL
-$417.15
Record
57%
7595-5825 (13420)
Invested
$321.17
Value
—
PnL
-$321.17
Record
55%
7173-5882 (13055)
Invested
$113.01
Value
$196.53
PnL
+$83.52
Record
58%
37384-26627 (64011)
Invested
$149.05
Value
$158.24
PnL
+$9.18
Record
55%
23650-19128 (42778)
Invested
$196.63
Value
$98.02
PnL
-$98.62
Record
57%
10140-7604 (17744)
Both legs:
Invested
$87.65
Value
$89.31
PnL
+$1.66
Record
55%
17309-13927 (31236)
Both legs:
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$65.95
Value
$67.99
PnL
+$2.04
Record
55%
44146-36636 (80782)
Invested
$45.13
Value
—
PnL
-$45.13
Record
56%
57606-44494 (102100)
Invested
$56.15
Value
—
PnL
-$56.15
Record
58%
60135-43896 (104031)
Invested
$43.84
Value
$87
PnL
+$43.16
Record
34%
18536-35559 (54095)
Invested
$22.26
Value
$48.52
PnL
+$26.26
Record
51%
19801-18940 (38741)
Invested
$39.34
Value
$81.74
PnL
+$42.39
Record
59%
6517-4510 (11027)
Invested
$24.29
Value
$37.24
PnL
+$18.28
Record
61%
93995-59086 (153081)
Invested
$27.88
Value
—
PnL
-$27.88
Record
52%
89438-83891 (173329)
Invested
$26.71
Value
$45.9
PnL
+$19.19
Record
66%
124638-64161 (188799)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
GoodFallen
Up — $1.4K
hoodquant
Up — $1.2K
tmsd-test
Up — $813.54
NIULAI4
Up — $844.99
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
FairValueMachine
Up — $570.27
EZTRADENL2
Up — $565.42
CrouchPredictions
Up — $505.97
ply-pm0
Up — $518.71
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $436.18