Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 86%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$305.07

Smart Money Signal

21 of 24 top traders (88%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,452

Combined PnL+$324.96

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares171

Combined PnL-$19.89

Up — 88%Down — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.7¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$52.98	93% 22640-1735 (24375)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 79.9¢	$843.06	$930.86	+$87.8	56% 14140-11096 (25236)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Upavg 71.4¢	$1.1K	$472.98	+$104.91	54% 14359-12176 (26535)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.4¢	$337.61	$472.98	+$218.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 11.5¢	$112.66	—	-$113.55
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 75.2¢	$391.83	$319.91	-$71.92	66% 98656-51035 (149691)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.2¢	$240.73	$319.91	+$79.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.8¢	$151.11	—	-$151.11
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 79.7¢	$336.62	$343.24	+$6.62	56% 13515-10791 (24306)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 75.5¢	$329.45	$310.23	-$19.22	57% 7595-5825 (13420)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 84.2¢	$247.76	$262.21	+$14.45	60% 11977-7856 (19833)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 82.4¢	$194.1	$227.83	+$33.73	55% 17309-13927 (31236)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 86.8¢	$181.53	$190	+$8.47	56% 12236-9461 (21697)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 81.1¢	$136.38	$139.94	+$3.55	49% 4990-5166 (10156)
ST std0	Upavg 93.9¢	$145.91	$136.45	-$9.45	67% 53149-26561 (79710)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 87¢	$124.47	$143.11	+$18.64	57% 11780-8773 (20553)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 65.5¢	$86.43	$122.86	+$36.43	51% 16944-16523 (33467)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 92.8¢	$51.96	$28.51	-$23.45	55% 8413-6845 (15258)
└ Down leg	Downavg 7.8¢	$25.52	—	-$25.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 92.8¢	$26.44	$28.51	+$2.07
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 89¢	$53.4	$60	+$6.6	57% 10140-7604 (17744)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 83.1¢	$47.68	$57.41	+$9.73	66% 124638-64161 (188799)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 92¢	$47.99	$42.61	-$5.38	55% 7173-5882 (13055)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 51¢	$41.84	$81.99	+$40.15	59% 6517-4510 (11027)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 80¢	$48	$60	+$12	65% 124308-66488 (190796)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 85¢	$17.33	$20.39	+$3.06	46% 37893-44550 (82443)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 51.1¢	$17.59	$34.42	+$16.83	58% 37384-26627 (64011)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 68¢	$14.96	$22	+$7.04	55% 44146-36636 (80782)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 10¢	$8	—	-$8	58% 12510-9161 (21671)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 11.4¢	$7.13	—	-$7.13	52% 89438-83891 (173329)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 14.8¢	$28.74	—	-$4.76	61% 93995-59086 (153081)

hoodquant

Invested

$2,213.02

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$52.98

Record

93%

22640-1735 (24375)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$843.06

Value

$930.86

PnL

+$87.8

Record

56%

14140-11096 (25236)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Invested

$1,071.05

Value

$472.98

PnL

+$104.91

Record

54%

14359-12176 (26535)

Both legs:

Up$337.6171.4¢+$218.46

Down$112.6611.5¢-$113.55

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$391.83

Value

$319.91

PnL

-$71.92

Record

66%

98656-51035 (149691)

Both legs:

Up$240.7375.2¢+$79.18

Down$151.1115.8¢-$151.11

GoodFallen

Invested

$336.62

Value

$343.24

PnL

+$6.62

Record

56%

13515-10791 (24306)

wzbbb

Invested

$329.45

Value

$310.23

PnL

-$19.22

Record

57%

7595-5825 (13420)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$247.76

Value

$262.21

PnL

+$14.45

Record

60%

11977-7856 (19833)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$194.1

Value

$227.83

PnL

+$33.73

Record

55%

17309-13927 (31236)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$181.53

Value

$190

PnL

+$8.47

Record

56%

12236-9461 (21697)

ply-pm0

Invested

$136.38

Value

$139.94

PnL

+$3.55

Record

49%

4990-5166 (10156)

std0

Invested

$145.91

Value

$136.45

PnL

-$9.45

Record

67%

53149-26561 (79710)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$124.47

Value

$143.11

PnL

+$18.64

Record

57%

11780-8773 (20553)

gansinimen

Invested

$86.43

Value

$122.86

PnL

+$36.43

Record

51%

16944-16523 (33467)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$51.96

Value

$28.51

PnL

-$23.45

Record

55%

8413-6845 (15258)

Both legs:

Down$25.527.8¢-$25.52

Up$26.4492.8¢+$2.07

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$53.4

Value

$60

PnL

+$6.6

Record

57%

10140-7604 (17744)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$47.68

Value

$57.41

PnL

+$9.73

Record

66%

124638-64161 (188799)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$47.99

Value

$42.61

PnL

-$5.38

Record

55%

7173-5882 (13055)

13897651<$100

Invested

$41.84

Value

$81.99

PnL

+$40.15

Record

59%

6517-4510 (11027)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$60

PnL

+$12

Record

65%

124308-66488 (190796)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$17.33

Value

$20.39

PnL

+$3.06

Record

46%

37893-44550 (82443)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$17.59

Value

$34.42

PnL

+$16.83

Record

58%

37384-26627 (64011)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$14.96

Value

$22

PnL

+$7.04

Record

55%

44146-36636 (80782)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$8

Record

58%

12510-9161 (21671)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.13

Value

—

PnL

-$7.13

Record

52%

89438-83891 (173329)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28.74

Value

—

PnL

-$4.76

Record

61%

93995-59086 (153081)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 24 top traders (88%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb6cc4ccd...bfcab3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793215200

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $2.3K

+$52.98

CrouchPredictions

Up — $930.86

tmsd-test

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Up — $343.24

+$6.62

wzbbb

Up — $310.23

-$19.22

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $262.21

+$14.45

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $227.83

+$33.73

FairValueMachine

Up — $190

+$8.47

ply-pm0

Up — $139.94

+$3.55

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