Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 43%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

$-5.7K

Smart Money Signal

13 of 29 top traders (45%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares7,786

Combined PnL+$635.58

Down16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,220

Combined PnL$-6.3K

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 77.8¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$12.3	57% 7595-5825 (13420)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 62.5¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K	56% 13515-10791 (24306)
NIULAI4	Upavg 65.1¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$366.91	77% 9290-2736 (12026)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 62.9¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	66% 98656-51035 (149691)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 56.4¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$45.65	56% 14140-11096 (25236)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$14.8	93% 22640-1735 (24375)
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 58.9¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	56% 12236-9461 (21697)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 59.2¢	$831.25	—	-$831.25	49% 4990-5166 (10156)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 58.3¢	$726.4	$702.98	-$23.42	55% 7173-5882 (13055)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR	Downavg 58.6¢	$822.59	—	-$818.74	60% 11977-7856 (19833)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Downavg 56.1¢	$1.6K	$235.5	-$18.07	54% 14359-12176 (26535)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.1¢	$283.66	—	-$188.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.4¢	$95.23	$235.5	+$170.6
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 45¢	$305.19	$409.48	+$104.29	57% 11780-8773 (20553)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 95.7¢	$234.5	$245	+$10.5	55% 44146-36636 (80782)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 59.8¢	$260.87	$235.17	-$25.7	67% 53149-26561 (79710)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$120.3	—	-$120.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.8¢	$140.57	$235.17	+$94.6
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$262.31	$266.98	+$4.67	51% 16944-16523 (33467)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.5¢	$128.99	—	-$128.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$133.32	$266.98	+$133.66
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 76.6¢	$181.58	$217.59	+$36.01	58% 37384-26627 (64011)
AS asdaefefCTR	Downavg 67.4¢	$187.99	—	-$187.99	66% 124638-64161 (188799)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Downavg 38.4¢	$118.26	—	-$118.26	56% 57606-44494 (102100)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 55.9¢	$144.46	$153	+$8.53	55% 23650-19128 (42778)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.9¢	$77.39	—	-$77.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.8¢	$67.08	$153	+$85.92
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$114.28	$76.15	-$38.13	55% 8413-6845 (15258)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.6¢	$72.63	—	-$72.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.7¢	$41.65	$76.15	+$34.5
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 44.6¢	$83.11	$79.63	-$3.48	59% 6517-4510 (11027)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.6¢	$41.8	—	-$41.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$41.31	$79.63	+$38.32
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$67.2	—	-$67.2	55% 17309-13927 (31236)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 42.1¢	$83.23	$72.09	+$37.5	61% 93995-59086 (153081)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 68¢	$60	—	-$60	65% 124308-66488 (190796)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 31¢	$31.12	—	-$31.12	58% 60135-43896 (104031)

wzbbb

Invested

$2,042.31

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$12.3

Record

57%

7595-5825 (13420)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$1,610.42

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

56%

13515-10791 (24306)

NIULAI4

Invested

$1,038.08

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$366.91

Record

77%

9290-2736 (12026)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$1,343.97

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

66%

98656-51035 (149691)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,247.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$45.65

Record

56%

14140-11096 (25236)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,277.12

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$14.8

Record

93%

22640-1735 (24375)

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$1,146.11

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

56%

12236-9461 (21697)

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$831.25

Value

—

PnL

-$831.25

Record

49%

4990-5166 (10156)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$726.4

Value

$702.98

PnL

-$23.42

Record

55%

7173-5882 (13055)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR

Down

Invested

$822.59

Value

—

PnL

-$818.74

Record

60%

11977-7856 (19833)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,574.12

Value

$235.5

PnL

-$18.07

Record

54%

14359-12176 (26535)

Both legs:

Down$283.6656.1¢-$188.67

Up$95.2340.4¢+$170.6

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$305.19

Value

$409.48

PnL

+$104.29

Record

57%

11780-8773 (20553)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$234.5

Value

$245

PnL

+$10.5

Record

55%

44146-36636 (80782)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$260.87

Value

$235.17

PnL

-$25.7

Record

67%

53149-26561 (79710)

Both legs:

Down$120.350.1¢-$120.3

Up$140.5759.8¢+$94.6

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$262.31

Value

$266.98

PnL

+$4.67

Record

51%

16944-16523 (33467)

Both legs:

Down$128.9964.5¢-$128.99

Up$133.3249.9¢+$133.66

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$181.58

Value

$217.59

PnL

+$36.01

Record

58%

37384-26627 (64011)

asdaefefCTR

Down

Invested

$187.99

Value

—

PnL

-$187.99

Record

66%

124638-64161 (188799)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Down

Invested

$118.26

Value

—

PnL

-$118.26

Record

56%

57606-44494 (102100)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$144.46

Value

$153

PnL

+$8.53

Record

55%

23650-19128 (42778)

Both legs:

Down$77.3955.9¢-$77.39

Up$67.0843.8¢+$85.92

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$114.28

Value

$76.15

PnL

-$38.13

Record

55%

8413-6845 (15258)

Both legs:

Down$72.6364.6¢-$72.63

Up$41.6554.7¢+$34.5

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$83.11

Value

$79.63

PnL

-$3.48

Record

59%

6517-4510 (11027)

Both legs:

Down$41.844.6¢-$41.8

Up$41.3151.9¢+$38.32

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$67.2

Value

—

PnL

-$67.2

Record

55%

17309-13927 (31236)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$83.23

Value

$72.09

PnL

+$37.5

Record

61%

93995-59086 (153081)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60

Value

—

PnL

-$60

Record

65%

124308-66488 (190796)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$31.12

Value

—

PnL

-$31.12

Record

58%

60135-43896 (104031)

Smart Money Signal

13 of 29 top traders (45%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x46adc1ea...a9d00d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793214900

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Up — $2.0K

-$12.3

GoodFallen

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.6K

NIULAI4

Up — $1.4K

+$366.91

Bonereaper

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.3K

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.3K

+$45.65

hoodquant

Up — $1.3K

FairValueMachine

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Down — $0

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $702.98

-$23.42

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

CTR

Down — $0

-$818.74

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