Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Down 64%
2 arb excluded
$8.5K
$104.39
Smart Money Signal
16 of 26 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$45.9 | 93% 22640-1735 (24375) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 96.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$28.66 | 57% 7595-5825 (13420) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$16.47 | 59% 61993-43042 (105035) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 83¢ | $578.18 | $678.23 | +$100.05 | 56% 14140-11096 (25236) |
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 78.2¢ | $794.89 | $400.71 | -$22.69 | 54% 14359-12176 (26535) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 77¢ | $228.1 | $252 | +$23.9 | 12% 18047-132832 (150879) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 76.2¢ | $171.22 | $220 | +$48.78 | 55% 7173-5882 (13055) |
ST std0 | Downavg 83.6¢ | $167.7 | $180 | +$12.3 | 67% 53149-26561 (79710) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 71.4¢ | $136.1 | $150 | +$13.9 | 56% 13515-10791 (24306) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 72.5¢ | $172.99 | $131 | -$41.99 | 66% 98656-51035 (149691) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 58.5¢ | $125.62 | $157.78 | +$32.17 | 59% 6517-4510 (11027) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.5¢ | $92.31 | $157.78 | +$65.47 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.7¢ | $33.3 | — | -$33.3 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $122.48 | $99 | -$23.48 | 57% 11780-8773 (20553) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80¢ | $79.2 | $99 | +$19.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.4¢ | $43.28 | — | -$43.28 | |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 99¢ | $106.92 | $108 | +$1.08 | 55% 44146-36636 (80782) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 77.3¢ | $45.4 | $55 | +$9.6 | 49% 4990-5166 (10156) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $32.76 | $35.45 | +$2.69 | 66% 124638-64161 (188799) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Upavg 21.8¢ | $85.28 | — | -$85.28 | 55% 8413-6845 (15258) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 71.7¢ | $27.31 | $30 | +$2.69 | 56% 12236-9461 (21697) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 77.6¢ | $24.75 | $25.46 | +$0.71 | 55% 17309-13927 (31236) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $15.38 | — | -$15.38 | 58% 37384-26627 (64011) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $13.97 | — | -$13.97 | 62% 43590-26534 (70124) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $14.65 | $17.24 | +$2.59 | 55% 23650-19128 (42778) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.9¢ | $4.1 | — | -$4.1 | 51% 19801-18940 (38741) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $5.29 | — | -$5.29 | 46% 37893-44550 (82443) |
GA gansinimenCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $2.77 | — | -$2.77 | 51% 16944-16523 (33467) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $3.99 | — | -$3.99 | 52% 89438-83891 (173329) |
Invested
$2,306.1
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$45.9
Record
93%
22640-1735 (24375)
Invested
$1,960.33
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$28.66
Record
57%
7595-5825 (13420)
Invested
$1,630.58
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$16.47
Record
59%
61993-43042 (105035)
Invested
$578.18
Value
$678.23
PnL
+$100.05
Record
56%
14140-11096 (25236)
Invested
$794.89
Value
$400.71
PnL
-$22.69
Record
54%
14359-12176 (26535)
Invested
$228.1
Value
$252
PnL
+$23.9
Record
12%
18047-132832 (150879)
Invested
$171.22
Value
$220
PnL
+$48.78
Record
55%
7173-5882 (13055)
Invested
$167.7
Value
$180
PnL
+$12.3
Record
67%
53149-26561 (79710)
Invested
$136.1
Value
$150
PnL
+$13.9
Record
56%
13515-10791 (24306)
Invested
$172.99
Value
$131
PnL
-$41.99
Record
66%
98656-51035 (149691)
Invested
$125.62
Value
$157.78
PnL
+$32.17
Record
59%
6517-4510 (11027)
Both legs:
Invested
$122.48
Value
$99
PnL
-$23.48
Record
57%
11780-8773 (20553)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniInvested
$106.92
Value
$108
PnL
+$1.08
Record
55%
44146-36636 (80782)
Invested
$45.4
Value
$55
PnL
+$9.6
Record
49%
4990-5166 (10156)
Invested
$32.76
Value
$35.45
PnL
+$2.69
Record
66%
124638-64161 (188799)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$85.28
Value
—
PnL
-$85.28
Record
55%
8413-6845 (15258)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$27.31
Value
$30
PnL
+$2.69
Record
56%
12236-9461 (21697)
Invested
$24.75
Value
$25.46
PnL
+$0.71
Record
55%
17309-13927 (31236)
Invested
$15.38
Value
—
PnL
-$15.38
Record
58%
37384-26627 (64011)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$13.97
Value
—
PnL
-$13.97
Record
62%
43590-26534 (70124)
Invested
$14.65
Value
$17.24
PnL
+$2.59
Record
55%
23650-19128 (42778)
Invested
$4.1
Value
—
PnL
-$4.1
Record
51%
19801-18940 (38741)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$5.29
Value
—
PnL
-$5.29
Record
46%
37893-44550 (82443)
Invested
$2.77
Value
—
PnL
-$2.77
Record
51%
16944-16523 (33467)
Invested
$3.99
Value
—
PnL
-$3.99
Record
52%
89438-83891 (173329)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $2.4K
wzbbb
Down — $2.0K
0x50f7
Down — $1.6K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $678.23
tmsd-test
Down — $400.71
Hsilverbasher
Down — $252
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $220
std0
Down — $180
GoodFallen
Down — $150
Bonereaper
Down — $131