Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 69%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$164.35

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 32 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares8,675

Combined PnL+$436.06

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares779

Combined PnL-$271.71

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Down	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$126.4	56% 3624-2813 (6437)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 36.1¢	$864.53	$531.73	-$332.8	66% 98656-51035 (149691)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.2¢	$378.39	$531.73	+$153.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.1¢	$486.14	—	-$486.14
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$684.04	$669.29	-$14.75	56% 13515-10791 (24306)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.9¢	$447.43	$669.29	+$221.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.3¢	$236.62	—	-$236.62
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 65.5¢	$419.33	$528.83	+$109.5	56% 14140-11096 (25236)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 75.8¢	$432.62	$452.09	+$19.47	57% 7595-5825 (13420)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 77.9¢	$440.31	$422.08	-$18.23	57% 11780-8773 (20553)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 72.4¢	$291	$344.13	+$53.13	56% 12236-9461 (21697)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Upavg 31.9¢	$1.8K	$194.39	+$42.01	54% 14359-12176 (26535)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.7¢	$139.45	$194.39	+$252.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.9¢	$223.83	—	-$210.2
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 77.8¢	$310.27	$301.43	-$8.84	12% 18047-132832 (150879)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 70.7¢	$285.12	$279.58	-$5.55	60% 11977-7856 (19833)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 74.1¢	$232.3	$236.28	+$3.99	49% 4990-5166 (10156)
BoneOhio	Downavg 91.7¢	$235.9	$257.13	+$21.23	74% 102149-36316 (138465)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 81.4¢	$209.39	$257.12	+$47.73	55% 23650-19128 (42778)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 79.7¢	$166.81	$187.1	+$20.29	55% 7173-5882 (13055)
NIULAI4	Downavg 88.7¢	$135.8	$153.17	+$17.37	77% 9290-2736 (12026)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 76.5¢	$118.4	$131.45	+$13.05	55% 17309-13927 (31236)
ST std0<$100	Downavg 68.6¢	$85.22	$98.29	+$13.06	67% 53149-26561 (79710)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 47.9¢	$76.57	—	-$76.57	58% 50801-36942 (87743)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 61¢	$61.17	$100.27	+$39.11	56% 57606-44494 (102100)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 83.8¢	$48.23	$46.44	-$1.79	66% 124638-64161 (188799)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 33¢	$103.32	—	-$103.32	55% 8413-6845 (15258)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 84.2¢	$62.42	$37.27	-$19.14	65% 21769-11955 (33724)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 17.4¢	$19.71	—	-$19.71	46% 37893-44550 (82443)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$19.5	$27.31	+$7.81	55% 44146-36636 (80782)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$16	—	-$16	58% 12510-9161 (21671)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$4,782.23

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$126.4

Record

56%

3624-2813 (6437)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$864.53

Value

$531.73

PnL

-$332.8

Record

66%

98656-51035 (149691)

Both legs:

Down$378.3971.2¢+$153.34

Up$486.1436.1¢-$486.14

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$684.04

Value

$669.29

PnL

-$14.75

Record

56%

13515-10791 (24306)

Both legs:

Down$447.4366.9¢+$221.86

Up$236.6229.3¢-$236.62

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$419.33

Value

$528.83

PnL

+$109.5

Record

56%

14140-11096 (25236)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$432.62

Value

$452.09

PnL

+$19.47

Record

57%

7595-5825 (13420)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$440.31

Value

$422.08

PnL

-$18.23

Record

57%

11780-8773 (20553)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$291

Value

$344.13

PnL

+$53.13

Record

56%

12236-9461 (21697)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Invested

$1,776.15

Value

$194.39

PnL

+$42.01

Record

54%

14359-12176 (26535)

Both legs:

Down$139.4571.7¢+$252.21

Up$223.8331.9¢-$210.2

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$310.27

Value

$301.43

PnL

-$8.84

Record

12%

18047-132832 (150879)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$285.12

Value

$279.58

PnL

-$5.55

Record

60%

11977-7856 (19833)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$232.3

Value

$236.28

PnL

+$3.99

Record

49%

4990-5166 (10156)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$235.9

Value

$257.13

PnL

+$21.23

Record

74%

102149-36316 (138465)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$209.39

Value

$257.12

PnL

+$47.73

Record

55%

23650-19128 (42778)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$166.81

Value

$187.1

PnL

+$20.29

Record

55%

7173-5882 (13055)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$135.8

Value

$153.17

PnL

+$17.37

Record

77%

9290-2736 (12026)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$118.4

Value

$131.45

PnL

+$13.05

Record

55%

17309-13927 (31236)

std0<$100

Down

Invested

$85.22

Value

$98.29

PnL

+$13.06

Record

67%

53149-26561 (79710)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$76.57

Value

—

PnL

-$76.57

Record

58%

50801-36942 (87743)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$61.17

Value

$100.27

PnL

+$39.11

Record

56%

57606-44494 (102100)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$48.23

Value

$46.44

PnL

-$1.79

Record

66%

124638-64161 (188799)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$103.32

Value

—

PnL

-$103.32

Record

55%

8413-6845 (15258)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$62.42

Value

$37.27

PnL

-$19.14

Record

65%

21769-11955 (33724)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$19.71

Value

—

PnL

-$19.71

Record

46%

37893-44550 (82443)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$19.5

Value

$27.31

PnL

+$7.81

Record

55%

44146-36636 (80782)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$16

Value

—

PnL

-$16

Record

58%

12510-9161 (21671)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 32 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x197ba830...d26eb7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793214300

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.8K

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Down — $528.83

+$109.5

wzbbb

Down — $452.09

+$19.47

EZTRADENL2

Down — $422.08

-$18.23

FairValueMachine

Down — $344.13

+$53.13

tmsd-test

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$42.01

Hsilverbasher

Down — $301.43

-$8.84

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $279.58

-$5.55

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