Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Up 81%
2 arb excluded
$7.2K
$604.51
Smart Money Signal
24 of 29 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$25.51 | 93% 22640-1735 (24375) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 95.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$50.61 | 57% 7595-5825 (13420) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 81.8¢ | $478.61 | $536.43 | +$57.82 | 56% 14140-11096 (25236) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 61¢ | $357.27 | $472.53 | +$115.26 | 66% 98656-51035 (149691) |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Upavg 78.1¢ | $442.51 | $330.06 | -$111.44 | 54% 14359-12176 (26535) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 78.1¢ | $257.82 | $330.06 | +$72.24 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26¢ | $183.9 | — | -$183.68 | |
HS Hsilverbasher | Upavg 55.5¢ | $160.87 | $272 | +$111.13 | 12% 18047-132832 (150879) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 82.7¢ | $208.2 | $251.61 | +$43.41 | 55% 17309-13927 (31236) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 69.3¢ | $182.82 | $224.1 | +$41.28 | 56% 13515-10791 (24306) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 71.6¢ | $142.68 | $182 | +$39.32 | 60% 11977-7856 (19833) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 52.1¢ | $182.89 | $202.74 | +$19.86 | 59% 6517-4510 (11027) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.1¢ | $105.68 | $202.74 | +$97.07 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.7¢ | $77.21 | — | -$77.21 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 43¢ | $75.63 | $162.51 | +$86.87 | 58% 37384-26627 (64011) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 77.1¢ | $102.96 | $106.98 | +$4.02 | 49% 4990-5166 (10156) |
GA gansinimen<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $85 | $100 | +$15 | 51% 16944-16523 (33467) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $73.5 | $75 | +$1.5 | 55% 44146-36636 (80782) |
ST std0<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $67.8 | $60 | -$7.8 | 67% 53149-26561 (79710) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $47.23 | $41.3 | -$5.83 | 55% 7173-5882 (13055) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 73.6¢ | $39.6 | $53.79 | +$14.19 | 56% 12236-9461 (21697) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 59.3¢ | $24.2 | $34.15 | +$9.95 | 57% 11780-8773 (20553) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 3.9¢ | $7.71 | — | -$7.71 | 49% 77608-80954 (158562) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 72.5¢ | $16.58 | $22.88 | +$6.3 | 66% 124638-64161 (188799) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $14 | $29.18 | +$15.17 | 58% 50801-36942 (87743) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $10.6 | — | -$10.6 | 55% 8413-6845 (15258) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1.7¢ | $7.5 | — | -$7.5 | 46% 37893-44550 (82443) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $6.75 | $15 | +$8.25 | 34% 18536-35559 (54095) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $6.21 | $9 | +$2.79 | 65% 3908-2105 (6013) |
Invested
$2,525.46
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$25.51
Record
93%
22640-1735 (24375)
Invested
$1,435.3
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$50.61
Record
57%
7595-5825 (13420)
Invested
$478.61
Value
$536.43
PnL
+$57.82
Record
56%
14140-11096 (25236)
Invested
$357.27
Value
$472.53
PnL
+$115.26
Record
66%
98656-51035 (149691)
Invested
$442.51
Value
$330.06
PnL
-$111.44
Record
54%
14359-12176 (26535)
Both legs:
Invested
$160.87
Value
$272
PnL
+$111.13
Record
12%
18047-132832 (150879)
Invested
$208.2
Value
$251.61
PnL
+$43.41
Record
55%
17309-13927 (31236)
Invested
$182.82
Value
$224.1
PnL
+$41.28
Record
56%
13515-10791 (24306)
Invested
$142.68
Value
$182
PnL
+$39.32
Record
60%
11977-7856 (19833)
Invested
$182.89
Value
$202.74
PnL
+$19.86
Record
59%
6517-4510 (11027)
Both legs:
Invested
$75.63
Value
$162.51
PnL
+$86.87
Record
58%
37384-26627 (64011)
Invested
$102.96
Value
$106.98
PnL
+$4.02
Record
49%
4990-5166 (10156)
Invested
$85
Value
$100
PnL
+$15
Record
51%
16944-16523 (33467)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$73.5
Value
$75
PnL
+$1.5
Record
55%
44146-36636 (80782)
Invested
$67.8
Value
$60
PnL
-$7.8
Record
67%
53149-26561 (79710)
Invested
$47.23
Value
$41.3
PnL
-$5.83
Record
55%
7173-5882 (13055)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$39.6
Value
$53.79
PnL
+$14.19
Record
56%
12236-9461 (21697)
Invested
$24.2
Value
$34.15
PnL
+$9.95
Record
57%
11780-8773 (20553)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$7.71
Value
—
PnL
-$7.71
Record
49%
77608-80954 (158562)
Invested
$16.58
Value
$22.88
PnL
+$6.3
Record
66%
124638-64161 (188799)
Invested
$14
Value
$29.18
PnL
+$15.17
Record
58%
50801-36942 (87743)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$10.6
Value
—
PnL
-$10.6
Record
55%
8413-6845 (15258)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$7.5
Value
—
PnL
-$7.5
Record
46%
37893-44550 (82443)
Invested
$6.75
Value
$15
PnL
+$8.25
Record
34%
18536-35559 (54095)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$6.21
Value
$9
PnL
+$2.79
Record
65%
3908-2105 (6013)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $2.6K
wzbbb
Up — $1.5K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $536.43
Bonereaper
Up — $472.53
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hsilverbasher
Up — $272
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $251.61
GoodFallen
Up — $224.1
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $182
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded