Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 58%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$68.77

Smart Money Signal

12 of 21 top traders (57%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,453

Combined PnL+$176.93

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares330

Combined PnL-$108.16

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$18.38	93% 22640-1735 (24375)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 78.6¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$78.48	56% 14140-11096 (25236)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.6¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$330.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.3¢	$251.55	—	-$251.55
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 66.6¢	$814.3	$761.46	-$52.84	56% 13515-10791 (24306)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.6¢	$506.83	$761.46	+$254.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 34¢	$307.47	—	-$307.47
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 65.1¢	$641.99	$673.3	+$31.32	66% 98656-51035 (149691)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.1¢	$438.06	$673.3	+$235.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.3¢	$203.92	—	-$203.92
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 73.5¢	$594.4	$624.7	+$30.3	49% 4990-5166 (10156)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.5¢	$459.1	$624.7	+$165.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 20¢	$135.31	—	-$135.31
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Upavg 62.8¢	$1.6K	$774.26	+$239.07	54% 14359-12176 (26535)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.8¢	$485.97	$774.26	+$422.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 33¢	$125.3	—	-$183.62
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$454.34	$450.66	-$3.68	57% 7595-5825 (13420)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.5¢	$295.27	$450.66	+$155.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.2¢	$159.07	—	-$159.07
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$460.21	$402.83	-$57.38	56% 12236-9461 (21697)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.5¢	$283.84	$402.83	+$119
└ Down leg	Downavg 31¢	$176.37	—	-$176.37
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 78¢	$442.5	$376.23	-$66.27	55% 7173-5882 (13055)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78¢	$293.47	$376.23	+$82.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.2¢	$149.03	—	-$149.03
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 73.5¢	$366.12	$339.09	-$27.02	57% 11780-8773 (20553)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.5¢	$249.08	$339.09	+$90.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.2¢	$117.04	—	-$117.04
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 70.1¢	$256.96	$310.75	+$53.79	58% 37384-26627 (64011)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 81.2¢	$362.46	$385.51	+$23.06	60% 11977-7856 (19833)
NIULAI4	Upavg 88.2¢	$277.76	$310.42	+$32.66	77% 9290-2736 (12026)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 84.3¢	$237.83	$246.32	+$8.49	55% 23650-19128 (42778)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 75¢	$177.67	$183.83	+$6.16	67% 53149-26561 (79710)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75¢	$137.89	$183.83	+$45.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.5¢	$39.77	—	-$39.77
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 63.9¢	$140.13	$137.54	-$2.59	12% 18047-132832 (150879)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.9¢	$87.82	$137.54	+$49.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.2¢	$52.31	—	-$52.31
MayorMamdani	Upavg 97.1¢	$217.06	$208	-$9.06	55% 44146-36636 (80782)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 68.1¢	$85.66	$116.13	+$30.47	57% 10140-7604 (17744)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.1¢	$79.06	$116.13	+$37.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 11¢	$6.6	—	-$6.6
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 80.9¢	$69.27	$85.62	+$16.35	55% 8413-6845 (15258)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 75.9¢	$56.58	$45.51	-$11.07	66% 124638-64161 (188799)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.9¢	$34.56	$45.51	+$10.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 34¢	$22.02	—	-$22.02
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 51.4¢	$48.2	—	-$48.2	59% 6517-4510 (11027)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 18¢	$17.25	—	-$17.25	46% 37893-44550 (82443)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 23¢	$7.25	$16	+$8.75	49% 77608-80954 (158562)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 68¢	$40.8	$60	+$19.2	65% 124308-66488 (190796)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 67.4¢	$19.65	—	-$19.65	55% 17309-13927 (31236)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,782.62

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$18.38

Record

93%

22640-1735 (24375)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,461.3

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$78.48

Record

56%

14140-11096 (25236)

Both legs:

Up$1,209.7578.6¢+$330.03

Down$251.5518.3¢-$251.55

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$814.3

Value

$761.46

PnL

-$52.84

Record

56%

13515-10791 (24306)

Both legs:

Up$506.8366.6¢+$254.63

Down$307.4734¢-$307.47

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$641.99

Value

$673.3

PnL

+$31.32

Record

66%

98656-51035 (149691)

Both legs:

Up$438.0665.1¢+$235.24

Down$203.9223.3¢-$203.92

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$594.4

Value

$624.7

PnL

+$30.3

Record

49%

4990-5166 (10156)

Both legs:

Up$459.173.5¢+$165.6

Down$135.3120¢-$135.31

tmsd-testARB<$100

Invested

$1,628.52

Value

$774.26

PnL

+$239.07

Record

54%

14359-12176 (26535)

Both legs:

Up$485.9762.8¢+$422.69

Down$125.333¢-$183.62

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$454.34

Value

$450.66

PnL

-$3.68

Record

57%

7595-5825 (13420)

Both legs:

Up$295.2765.5¢+$155.39

Down$159.0725.2¢-$159.07

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$460.21

Value

$402.83

PnL

-$57.38

Record

56%

12236-9461 (21697)

Both legs:

Up$283.8470.5¢+$119

Down$176.3731¢-$176.37

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$442.5

Value

$376.23

PnL

-$66.27

Record

55%

7173-5882 (13055)

Both legs:

Up$293.4778¢+$82.76

Down$149.0336.2¢-$149.03

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$366.12

Value

$339.09

PnL

-$27.02

Record

57%

11780-8773 (20553)

Both legs:

Up$249.0873.5¢+$90.02

Down$117.0434.2¢-$117.04

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$256.96

Value

$310.75

PnL

+$53.79

Record

58%

37384-26627 (64011)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$362.46

Value

$385.51

PnL

+$23.06

Record

60%

11977-7856 (19833)

NIULAI4

Invested

$277.76

Value

$310.42

PnL

+$32.66

Record

77%

9290-2736 (12026)

sir-upalot

Invested

$237.83

Value

$246.32

PnL

+$8.49

Record

55%

23650-19128 (42778)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$177.67

Value

$183.83

PnL

+$6.16

Record

67%

53149-26561 (79710)

Both legs:

Up$137.8975¢+$45.93

Down$39.7720.5¢-$39.77

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$140.13

Value

$137.54

PnL

-$2.59

Record

12%

18047-132832 (150879)

Both legs:

Up$87.8263.9¢+$49.72

Down$52.3133.2¢-$52.31

MayorMamdani

Invested

$217.06

Value

$208

PnL

-$9.06

Record

55%

44146-36636 (80782)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$85.66

Value

$116.13

PnL

+$30.47

Record

57%

10140-7604 (17744)

Both legs:

Up$79.0668.1¢+$37.07

Down$6.611¢-$6.6

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$69.27

Value

$85.62

PnL

+$16.35

Record

55%

8413-6845 (15258)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$56.58

Value

$45.51

PnL

-$11.07

Record

66%

124638-64161 (188799)

Both legs:

Invested

$48.2

Value

—

PnL

-$48.2

Record

59%

6517-4510 (11027)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.25

Value

—

PnL

-$17.25

Record

46%

37893-44550 (82443)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$7.25

Value

$16

PnL

+$8.75

Record

49%

77608-80954 (158562)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$40.8

Value

$60

PnL

+$19.2

Record

65%

124308-66488 (190796)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.65

Value

—

PnL

-$19.65

Record

55%

17309-13927 (31236)

Smart Money Signal

12 of 21 top traders (57%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2bccc9d2...65bd6e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793211600

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $1.8K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

tmsd-test

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded