Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Signal

14 of 22 top traders (64%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares5,837

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares883

Combined PnL-$565.71

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$24.78	93% 22640-1735 (24375)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Downavg 71.3¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	+$242.8	54% 14359-12176 (26535)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.6¢	$461.84	$1.4K	+$833.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.3¢	$612.63	—	-$591.14
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 56.4¢	$933.03	$909.39	-$23.64	56% 13515-10791 (24306)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$455.08	$909.39	+$454.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.4¢	$477.95	—	-$477.95
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 20.8¢	$327.24	$1.6K	+$1.2K	58% 37384-26627 (64011)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 65.7¢	$921.01	$1.1K	+$139.91	57% 7595-5825 (13420)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.7¢	$697.39	$1.1K	+$363.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.4¢	$223.62	—	-$223.62
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 38.5¢	$364.77	$495.58	+$130.81	56% 14140-11096 (25236)
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.3¢	$174	—	-$174
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.5¢	$190.76	$495.58	+$304.81
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 53¢	$612.09	$500.56	-$111.53	66% 98656-51035 (149691)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53¢	$444.96	—	-$444.96
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.4¢	$167.14	$500.56	+$333.42
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$629.59	$551.87	-$77.73	56% 12236-9461 (21697)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.6¢	$290.17	$551.87	+$261.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.7¢	$339.42	—	-$339.42
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 63.8¢	$466.74	$450.29	-$16.45	49% 4990-5166 (10156)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.6¢	$179.58	—	-$179.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.8¢	$287.16	$450.29	+$163.12
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 65.2¢	$499.48	$401.16	-$98.32	60% 11977-7856 (19833)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.2¢	$261.48	$401.16	+$139.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.1¢	$237.99	—	-$237.99
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 46.8¢	$320.97	$393.79	+$73.67	55% 7173-5882 (13055)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.8¢	$184.13	$393.79	+$208.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.3¢	$134.5	—	-$134.5
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 45.3¢	$261.98	$397.57	+$135.59	57% 11780-8773 (20553)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.3¢	$180.17	$397.57	+$217.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.5¢	$81.81	—	-$81.81
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 68.6¢	$253.46	$271.98	+$18.52	67% 53149-26561 (79710)
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.9¢	$70.36	$271.98	+$201.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.6¢	$183.1	—	-$183.1
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 22.8¢	$93.3	$409.85	+$316.55	55% 17309-13927 (31236)
NIULAI4	Upavg 80.7¢	$239.12	$276	+$36.88	77% 9290-2736 (12026)
SI sir-upalotCTR	Downavg 76.8¢	$199.45	—	-$199.45	55% 23650-19128 (42778)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 75.1¢	$164.93	$117	-$47.93	12% 18047-132832 (150879)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.1¢	$87.85	$117	+$29.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.8¢	$77.08	—	-$77.08
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 33.3¢	$77.9	$215.03	+$137.13	57% 69920-53118 (123038)
13 13897651	Upavg 52.4¢	$106.6	$173.66	+$67.06	59% 6509-4504 (11013)
pspspsps5	Upavg 7.1¢	$20.48	$289.74	+$269.26	46% 37893-44550 (82443)
ohioismCTR	Downavg 81¢	$123.15	—	-$123.15	64% 39732-22693 (62425)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 56.4¢	$108.76	$87.82	-$20.94	66% 124638-64161 (188799)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.4¢	$62.76	—	-$62.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.4¢	$46	$87.82	+$41.82
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Downavg 81¢	$121.65	—	-$121.65	58% 60135-43896 (104031)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 34.6¢	$60.92	$155.09	+$94.18	51% 16944-16523 (33467)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Downavg 8.7¢	$17.04	—	-$17.04	57% 10140-7604 (17744)

hoodquant

Invested

$2,443.22

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$24.78

Record

93%

22640-1735 (24375)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,931.6

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$242.8

Record

54%

14359-12176 (26535)

Both legs:

Up$461.8433.6¢+$833.94

Down$612.6371.3¢-$591.14

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$933.03

Value

$909.39

PnL

-$23.64

Record

56%

13515-10791 (24306)

Both legs:

Up$455.0850¢+$454.31

Down$477.9556.4¢-$477.95

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$327.24

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

58%

37384-26627 (64011)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$921.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$139.91

Record

57%

7595-5825 (13420)

Both legs:

Up$697.3965.7¢+$363.53

Down$223.6245.4¢-$223.62

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$364.77

Value

$495.58

PnL

+$130.81

Record

56%

14140-11096 (25236)

Both legs:

Down$17419.3¢-$174

Up$190.7638.5¢+$304.81

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$612.09

Value

$500.56

PnL

-$111.53

Record

66%

98656-51035 (149691)

Both legs:

Down$444.9653¢-$444.96

Up$167.1433.4¢+$333.42

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$629.59

Value

$551.87

PnL

-$77.73

Record

56%

12236-9461 (21697)

Both legs:

Up$290.1752.6¢+$261.69

Down$339.4257.7¢-$339.42

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$466.74

Value

$450.29

PnL

-$16.45

Record

49%

4990-5166 (10156)

Both legs:

Down$179.5833.6¢-$179.58

Up$287.1663.8¢+$163.12

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$499.48

Value

$401.16

PnL

-$98.32

Record

60%

11977-7856 (19833)

Both legs:

Up$261.4865.2¢+$139.68

Down$237.9957.1¢-$237.99

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$320.97

Value

$393.79

PnL

+$73.67

Record

55%

7173-5882 (13055)

Both legs:

Up$184.1346.8¢+$208.17

Down$134.567.3¢-$134.5

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$261.98

Value

$397.57

PnL

+$135.59

Record

57%

11780-8773 (20553)

Both legs:

Up$180.1745.3¢+$217.4

Down$81.8143.5¢-$81.81

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$253.46

Value

$271.98

PnL

+$18.52

Record

67%

53149-26561 (79710)

Both legs:

Up$70.3625.9¢+$201.62

Down$183.168.6¢-$183.1

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$93.3

Value

$409.85

PnL

+$316.55

Record

55%

17309-13927 (31236)

NIULAI4

Invested

$239.12

Value

$276

PnL

+$36.88

Record

77%

9290-2736 (12026)

sir-upalotCTR

Down

Invested

$199.45

Value

—

PnL

-$199.45

Record

55%

23650-19128 (42778)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$164.93

Value

$117

PnL

-$47.93

Record

12%

18047-132832 (150879)

Both legs:

Up$87.8575.1¢+$29.15

Down$77.0861.8¢-$77.08

uninformedfloww

Invested

$77.9

Value

$215.03

PnL

+$137.13

Record

57%

69920-53118 (123038)

13897651

Invested

$106.6

Value

$173.66

PnL

+$67.06

Record

59%

6509-4504 (11013)

pspspsps5

Invested

$20.48

Value

$289.74

PnL

+$269.26

Record

46%

37893-44550 (82443)

ohioismCTR

Down

Invested

$123.15

Value

—

PnL

-$123.15

Record

64%

39732-22693 (62425)

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$108.76

Value

$87.82

PnL

-$20.94

Record

66%

124638-64161 (188799)

Both legs:

Down$62.7656.4¢-$62.76

Up$4652.4¢+$41.82

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Down

Invested

$121.65

Value

—

PnL

-$121.65

Record

58%

60135-43896 (104031)

gansinimen

Invested

$60.92

Value

$155.09

PnL

+$94.18

Record

51%

16944-16523 (33467)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.04

Value

—

PnL

-$17.04

Record

57%

10140-7604 (17744)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 22 top traders (64%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xaddf2e67...9ae000

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793211300

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $2.5K

tmsd-test

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.6K

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$98.32

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