Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 82%

19 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Signal

16 of 19 top traders (84%)19 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares8,746

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares199

Combined PnL-$114.54

Up — 84%Down — 16%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$37.66	59% 61993-43042 (105035)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 61.7¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$195.33	56% 13515-10791 (24306)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.7¢	$957.27	—	-$957.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.6¢	$520.77	$1.3K	+$761.94
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$22.44	93% 22640-1735 (24375)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 42.5¢	$974.21	$1.2K	+$192.89	56% 12236-9461 (21697)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.5¢	$496.4	$1.2K	+$670.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.5¢	$477.81	—	-$477.81
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 32.2¢	$556.42	$948.27	+$391.85	56% 14140-11096 (25236)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.2¢	$305.77	$948.27	+$642.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.4¢	$250.65	—	-$250.65
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Upavg 45.1¢	$1.6K	$1.0K	+$541.78	54% 14359-12176 (26535)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.1¢	$453.24	$1.0K	+$545.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.3¢	$229.63	—	-$3.85
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 51.1¢	$574.44	$719.67	+$145.23	49% 4990-5166 (10156)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.8¢	$214.16	$719.67	+$505.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$360.29	—	-$360.29
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 63¢	$670.88	$692.79	+$21.92	66% 98656-51035 (149691)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.6¢	$281.23	$692.79	+$411.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 63¢	$389.64	—	-$389.64
NIULAI4	Upavg 36.1¢	$424.8	$1.0K	+$586.87	77% 9290-2736 (12026)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 65.6¢	$404.25	$421.05	+$16.8	57% 69920-53118 (123038)
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.6¢	$128	—	-$128
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.6¢	$276.25	$421.05	+$144.8
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 54.5¢	$469.26	$784.86	+$315.59	58% 37384-26627 (64011)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 40.2¢	$403.73	$530.2	+$126.47	57% 7595-5825 (13420)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.2¢	$213.25	$530.2	+$316.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.5¢	$190.48	—	-$190.48
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 49¢	$358.82	$344.76	-$10.8	55% 7173-5882 (13055)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$229.3	—	-$228.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.9¢	$127.07	$344.76	+$217.7
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 72¢	$395.37	$319.53	-$75.85	60% 11977-7856 (19833)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$161.51	$319.53	+$158.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 72¢	$233.87	—	-$233.87
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$269.93	$329.94	+$60.01	12% 18047-132832 (150879)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.5¢	$130.39	$329.94	+$199.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$139.54	—	-$139.54
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 41.8¢	$190.51	$292.15	+$101.63	57% 11780-8773 (20553)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.8¢	$122.11	$292.15	+$170.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.6¢	$68.41	—	-$68.41
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 67.2¢	$247.24	$125.76	-$121.48	55% 23650-19128 (42778)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.2¢	$186.62	—	-$186.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.2¢	$60.61	$125.76	+$65.14
machinelearned	Upavg 33.8¢	$124.71	$342.29	+$217.58	55% 8413-6845 (15258)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 53.5¢	$109.96	$199.96	+$89.99	51% 16944-16523 (33467)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.5¢	$106.96	$199.96	+$92.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 3¢	$3	—	-$3
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$130.91	$124.99	-$5.92	67% 53149-26561 (79710)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.7¢	$84.06	—	-$84.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.5¢	$46.85	$124.99	+$78.14
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 38¢	$109.2	$180	+$70.8	57% 10140-7604 (17744)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38¢	$68.4	$180	+$111.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 67¢	$40.8	—	-$40.8
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 34.5¢	$96.7	$141.2	+$44.5	66% 124638-64161 (188799)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.5¢	$48.66	$141.2	+$92.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.7¢	$48.04	—	-$48.04
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 26.8¢	$44.98	$100.39	+$55.41	58% 60135-43896 (104031)
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.8¢	$26.93	$100.39	+$73.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 18¢	$18.05	—	-$18.05
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$195.69	$197.67	+$1.98	74% 102149-36316 (138465)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$70	—	-$70	58% 12510-9161 (21671)

0x50f7

Invested

$3,728.36

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$37.66

Record

59%

61993-43042 (105035)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,478.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$195.33

Record

56%

13515-10791 (24306)

Both legs:

Down$957.2761.7¢-$957.27

Up$520.7740.6¢+$761.94

hoodquant

Invested

$2,222.05

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$22.44

Record

93%

22640-1735 (24375)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$974.21

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$192.89

Record

56%

12236-9461 (21697)

Both legs:

Up$496.442.5¢+$670.7

Down$477.8161.5¢-$477.81

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$556.42

Value

$948.27

PnL

+$391.85

Record

56%

14140-11096 (25236)

Both legs:

Up$305.7732.2¢+$642.49

Down$250.6544.4¢-$250.65

tmsd-testARB<$100

Invested

$1,570.12

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$541.78

Record

54%

14359-12176 (26535)

Both legs:

Up$453.2445.1¢+$545.63

Down$229.6346.3¢-$3.85

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$574.44

Value

$719.67

PnL

+$145.23

Record

49%

4990-5166 (10156)

Both legs:

Up$214.1629.8¢+$505.51

Down$360.2951.1¢-$360.29

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$670.88

Value

$692.79

PnL

+$21.92

Record

66%

98656-51035 (149691)

Both legs:

Up$281.2340.6¢+$411.56

Down$389.6463¢-$389.64

NIULAI4

Invested

$424.8

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$586.87

Record

77%

9290-2736 (12026)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$404.25

Value

$421.05

PnL

+$16.8

Record

57%

69920-53118 (123038)

Both legs:

Down$12824.6¢-$128

Up$276.2565.6¢+$144.8

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$469.26

Value

$784.86

PnL

+$315.59

Record

58%

37384-26627 (64011)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$403.73

Value

$530.2

PnL

+$126.47

Record

57%

7595-5825 (13420)

Both legs:

Up$213.2540.2¢+$316.95

Down$190.4865.5¢-$190.48

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$358.82

Value

$344.76

PnL

-$10.8

Record

55%

7173-5882 (13055)

Both legs:

Down$229.349¢-$228.5

Up$127.0736.9¢+$217.7

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$395.37

Value

$319.53

PnL

-$75.85

Record

60%

11977-7856 (19833)

Both legs:

Up$161.5150.5¢+$158.02

Down$233.8772¢-$233.87

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$269.93

Value

$329.94

PnL

+$60.01

Record

12%

18047-132832 (150879)

Both legs:

Up$130.3939.5¢+$199.55

Down$139.5449.3¢-$139.54

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$190.51

Value

$292.15

PnL

+$101.63

Record

57%

11780-8773 (20553)

Both legs:

Up$122.1141.8¢+$170.04

Down$68.4154.6¢-$68.41

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$247.24

Value

$125.76

PnL

-$121.48

Record

55%

23650-19128 (42778)

Both legs:

Down$186.6267.2¢-$186.62

Up$60.6148.2¢+$65.14

machinelearned

Invested

$124.71

Value

$342.29

PnL

+$217.58

Record

55%

8413-6845 (15258)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$109.96

Value

$199.96

PnL

+$89.99

Record

51%

16944-16523 (33467)

Both legs:

Up$106.9653.5¢+$92.99

Down$33¢-$3

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$130.91

Value

$124.99

PnL

-$5.92

Record

67%

53149-26561 (79710)

Both legs:

Down$84.0664.7¢-$84.06

Up$46.8537.5¢+$78.14

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$109.2

Value

$180

PnL

+$70.8

Record

57%

10140-7604 (17744)

Both legs:

Up$68.438¢+$111.6

Down$40.867¢-$40.8

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$96.7

Value

$141.2

PnL

+$44.5

Record

66%

124638-64161 (188799)

Both legs:

Up$48.6634.5¢+$92.54

Down$48.0467.7¢-$48.04

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$44.98

Value

$100.39

PnL

+$55.41

Record

58%

60135-43896 (104031)

Both legs:

Up$26.9326.8¢+$73.46

Down$18.0518¢-$18.05

BoneOhio

Invested

$195.69

Value

$197.67

PnL

+$1.98

Record

74%

102149-36316 (138465)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$70

Value

—

PnL

-$70

Record

58%

12510-9161 (21671)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 19 top traders (84%)19 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x55f3533b...013075

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793211000

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $3.8K

+$37.66

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$195.33

hoodquant

Up — $2.2K

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

tmsd-test

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Up — $1.0K

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded